Bitcoin’s (BTC) 26.62% decline from its $109,500 all-time high is en route to becoming the deepest drawdown of the current bull market cycle, according to CryptoQuant head of research, Julio Moreno.

Bitcoin price drawdown analysis. Source: X

Bitcoin has experienced significant drawdowns in past cycles, with a notable 83% drop from its peak in 2018 and a 73% correction from all-time highs (ATH) in 2022. In comparison, the current decline of 26.62%, while substantial, remains less severe than previous bear markets.

This suggests that even though the current downturn is impactful, it has not yet reached the intensity of previous cycles. However, crypto and macro resource ‘ecoinometrics’ said that Bitcoin might struggle to stage an immediate turnaround. The analysts explained,

“Historically, when the NASDAQ 100 falls below its long-term year-on-year average return, Bitcoin tends to grow more slowly. It also faces a higher risk of entering a severe correction.”

Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation. Source: X / Ecoinometrics

With the Nasdaq 100 currently flat year-on-year, Bitcoin’s price recovery might be difficult, even if the correction halts.

The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price drop also put Michael Saylor’s Strategy on the defensive, with the firm opting not to purchase any BTC for its treasury between March 31 and April 6.

Additionally, data from Strategytracker highlighted that the corporation spent $35.65 billion on its Bitcoin holdings, currently reflecting a mere 17% return on a five-year holding period.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy halts Bitcoin buys despite dip below $87K

Can Bitcoin hold a position above $70K?

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin tested the 50-weekly exponential moving average (blue indicator) for the first time since September 2024. A weekly close below the 50-W EMA has signaled the beginning of a bear market in previous market cycles.

Bitcoin weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The immediate point of interest below the current price remains at $74,000, which was the early 2024 all-time high. However, the daily demand zone between $65,000 and $69,000 could be a bigger liquidity level based on its significance. The $69,000 level is also the 2021 all-time high price.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index, RSI, reached its lowest value of 43 since January 2023 at the end of Q1. In August 2023 and September 2024, the RSI recovered from a similar value to trigger a price recovery for Bitcoin. In 2022, when RSI dropped below 40, bears took total control of the market.

Anonymous crypto trader Rekt Capital also predicted based on daily RSI value and said,

“Historical daily RSI trends in this cycle suggest anything from current prices to ~$70,000 is likely to be the bottom on this correction.”

Related: Bitcoin, stocks crumble after ‘90 day tariff pause’ deemed fake news — BTC whales keep accumulating

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing “signs of resilience” even as stocks and the broader cryptocurrency market plunge amid a global market sell-off after US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on US imports last week, Binance Research said. 

As of mid-day trading on April 7, Bitcoin is up almost 1% to nearly $79,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 — an index of large US stocks — is essentially flat and front-month gold futures are down around 1.5%, according to Google Finance.

“Even in the wake of recent tariff announcements, BTC has shown some signs of resilience, holding steady or rebounding on days when traditional risk assets faltered,” Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, said in an April 7 research report.  

Notably, Bitcoin’s supply of long-term holders continues to rise, “reflecting conviction and limited capitulation during recent volatility,” Binance said.

On April 2, Trump said he was putting tariffs of at least 10% on most imports into the United States and adding additional “reciprocal” tariffs on goods from 57 countries. 

Since then, major US stock indices — including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq — dropped by more than 10% as traders braced for a looming trade war.

Bitcoin is still down more than stocks — about 12% — but has held up better than crypto’s overall market capitalization, which is down roughly 25% since April 2.

“Now, with reciprocal tariffs emerging and global markets adjusting to the prospect of prolonged trade fragmentation, much could hinge on BTC’s ability to reassert its safe haven narrative,” the report said. 

Source: Binance Research

Related: Crypto stocks down, IPOs punted amid tariff tumult

Changing asset correlations

Bitcoin’s correlation with gold — historically considered the ultimate safe haven asset during times of extreme macroeconomic uncertainty — has been low, averaging around 0.12 over the past 90 days, Binance said. 

The cryptocurrency has a closer correlation with equities of 0.32. However, “despite short-term swings, BTC may still have room to reassert a more independent macro identity,” according to the exchange. 

“The key question is whether BTC can return to its long-term pattern of low correlation with equities,” noted the report. 

Source: Binance Research

For now, gold appears to be the preferred safe haven asset among fund managers, Binance said. 

It cited a survey in which 58% of respondents said they would prefer to hold gold during a trade war versus only 3% for Bitcoin. 

“Market participants will be watching closely to see if BTC is able to retain its appeal as a non-sovereign, permissionless asset in a protectionist global economy,” Binance said.

Magazine: New ‘MemeStrategy’ Bitcoin firm by 9GAG, jailed CEO’s $3.5M bonus: Asia Express

Crypto’s worst quarter since the FTX crisis has many investors worried about the end of the bull market, but according to an industry panel, Bitcoin and altcoins’ parabolic moves haven’t even begun yet. 

In a panel discussion at the LONGITUDE by Cointelegraph event in Paris, France, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said he thinks the bull market is “actually getting started from this point.” 

While it’s hard to believe that following Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent plunge below $80,000 on global tariff woes, “we know from history” that chaotic sell-offs create favorable conditions for a reversal, he said.

Van de Poppe drew parallels between the current market dump and the COVID-19 crash in 2020, when Bitcoin plunged by nearly 40% in a single day.

“That was the actual bottom, and since then, Bitcoin went 20x,” said van de Poppe. 

Cointelegraph Managing Editor Gareth Jenkinson, left, moderates a panel with three crypto experts in Paris, France, on April 7. Source: Cointelegraph

Messari CEO Eric Turner agreed, saying, “We never had a bull market,” but rather “two sides of the market.” 

“We had Bitcoin where all the flows went into [exchange-traded funds]” and “then you have pockets of things,” such as the memecoin frenzy and other short-term trends, he said.

“I actually think the real question is, when does the bull market come? If you ask me, that’s going to be Q3, Q4 of this year,” said Turner.

Beyond short-term price action, it helps to look at the big picture, especially in the United States, said John Patrick Mullin, the co-founder and CEO of Mantra. Mullin said he’s “excited” about all of the favorable policy tailwinds coming from the United States, including the Executive Branch.

Related: VC Roundup: 8-figure funding deals suggest crypto bull market far from over

Favorable policy, bad macro environment

US President Donald Trump is overseeing an overhaul of crypto regulations in Washington, with lawmakers moving closer to passing landmark stablecoin and market structure bills. 

Trump has also appointed pro-crypto leaders to various positions, chief among them being Paul Atkins, who recently moved one step closer to securing the nomination as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

However, these positive developments have failed to kickstart the bull market or bring meaningful capital flows into the industry, largely because Trump’s other agenda items — namely, tackling perceived trade imbalances — have triggered growth fears. 

Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2 were perceived by many investors as an egregious attempt to rewrite the terms of global trade, as they went beyond the 10% universal tariff proposed initially. 

Source: Andrea Junker

The tariff announcement triggered the largest exodus from US stocks since the COVID-19 pandemic. 

However, if past crises like COVID-19 are anything to go by, the US Federal Reserve will likely step in at some point to backstop the market should things get progressively worse.

“[…] If you go back in time with another crisis and at some point the Fed steps in to lower the rates and to print money to stimulate the internal economy,” van de Poppe said during the panel discussion.

“So, it’s going to happen. The question is when,” said van de Poppe.

Magazine: Bitcoin heading to $70K soon? Crypto baller funds SpaceX flight: Hodler’s Digest, March 30 – April 5