US Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly told Republican lawmakers that the chamber would address a bill on stablecoin regulation before the May 26 Memorial Day holiday.

According to an April 29 Politico report, Thune made the comments in a closed-door meeting with Republican senators, who hold a slim majority in the chamber. The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, was introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty in February and passed the Senate Banking Committee in March.

Thune did not mention any crypto or blockchain-related bills in his public comments on US President Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office. Since his Jan. 20 inauguration, Trump has signed several executive orders with the potential to affect US crypto policy, including one affecting stablecoins. Still, many of the actions do not carry the force of law without an act of Congress.

Related: $649B stablecoin transfers linked to illicit activity in 2024: Report

The proposed GENIUS bill could essentially restrict any entity other than a “permitted payment stablecoin issuer” from issuing a payment stablecoin in the United States. The House of Representatives, also controlled by Republicans, has proposed a companion bill to the legislation: the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy, or STABLE Act.

Trump accused of conflicts of interest over stablecoins, crypto ventures

The president’s executive order, signed on Jan. 23, established a working group to study the potential creation and maintenance of a national crypto stockpile and a regulatory framework for stablecoins. Republican lawmakers followed by introducing the STABLE and GENIUS acts.

Trump also introduced the order before World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm backed by the president’s family, launched its US-dollar pegged USD1 stablecoin. Many Democratic lawmakers said that Trump’s ties to the firm, coupled with his political influence and position, could present an “extraordinary conflict of interest that could create unprecedented risks to our financial system” as Congress considers the two stablecoin bills.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Bettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.

The US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.

The pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.

Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.

The shift comes one day after Canada, America’s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada’s ongoing trade war with the US.

Bettors on Kalshi now expect a negative US GDP print. Source: Kalshi

Related: Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data

The markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump’s controversial trade policies.

Prediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.

In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s election win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.

Polymarket’s US GDP growth wagers. Source: Polymarket

Tariff turmoil

On April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms.

The macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.

In April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index — a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers — reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020. 

Analysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump’s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.

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The Bank of Italy identified Bitcoin and other digital assets as emerging risk factors in a recent report, citing concerns for both investors and the financial system.

In its April 2025 Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Italy flags crypto volatility and rising integration with the broader economy, singling out stablecoins and non-financial firms’ crypto exposure as key concerns.

“The strong growth of Bitcoin and of other crypto-assets with high price volatility means risks not only for investors but also potentially for financial stability, given the growing interconnections between the digital asset ecosystem, the traditional financial sector and the real economy,” the report notes.

Excerpt from the Bank of Italy’s Financial Stability Report. Source: Bank of Italy

The Bank of Italy’s report also addressed the trend of non-financial corporations holding Bitcoin, stating that it exposes them to “marked price volatility” driven by “the belief that Bitcoin can support their share prices.”

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) helped popularize the corporate purchase of Bitcoin, beginning its acquisitions in August 2020. Since then, several companies have followed its lead, including Metaplanet, Semler Scientific, and GameStop.

The Bank of Italy also addressed stablecoins in its report, noting potential risks if dollar-pegged tokens were to become systemic. It suggested that increased reliance on US government bonds to back these assets could introduce broader financial vulnerabilities. According to the report, disruptions in either the stablecoins or the underlying bonds could have “repercussions for other parts of the global financial system.”

The report comes just a few days after Giancarlo Giorgetti, the country’s minister of economy and finance, warned that the appeal of US dollar stablecoins should not be underestimated. According to Giorgetti, US stablecoin policies are more dangerous than US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Related: Italy scales back plans to hike crypto tax rate: Report

Giorgetti, in his speech, highlighted the need to enhance the euro’s position on the global stage, noting that the development of the Digital Euro will play a crucial role in reducing reliance on foreign digital solutions.

Related: Italy’s largest bank enters crypto market with $1M Bitcoin investment