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New Bitcoin price all-time highs could occur in May — Here is why

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Key takeaways:

Heavy liquidations played a role in Bitcoin’s return to $95,000.

Bitcoin’s weakening correlation with stocks highlights its growing independence as an asset.

Bullish institutional investor positioning contrasts with retail traders’ caution, supporting a rally above $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained 11% between April 20 and April 26, demonstrating resilience by holding near its two-month high around $94,000. This relief rally followed signals from the Trump administration about easing import tariffs, as well as strong corporate earnings reports.

Investor confidence in Bitcoin was further boosted by a record $3.1 billion in net inflows to spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) over five days. However, a key BTC derivatives indicator showed signs of bearish momentum, raising questions about whether the $100,000 target is still realistic.

Perpetual Bitcoin futures contracts are favored by retail traders because their prices closely track the spot market. A positive funding rate means that buyers pay to maintain their positions, so a reversal in this rate is typically linked to bearish trends.

Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The sharp negative funding rates recorded on April 26 are highly unusual during bull markets, as they indicate stronger demand from sellers. This metric has been volatile since April 14, but sellers were caught off guard as Bitcoin’s price climbed above $94,000. Since April 21, over $450 million in BTC short positions have been liquidated.

Some of the renewed confidence and Bitcoin’s price strength can be attributed to the S&P 500’s 7.1% weekly gain. However, despite this optimism, US President Donald Trump reportedly said on April 25 that negotiations would depend on China making concessions, causing traders to question the sustainability of recent gains.

Companies are now reporting first-quarter earnings from before the escalation of the trade war, so the factors driving the stock market and Bitcoin are different. In fact, Bitcoin’s price is no longer closely correlated with the S&P 500.

30-day correlation: S&P 500 vs Bitcoin/USD. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Currently, the 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and Bitcoin stands at 29%, well below the 60% level seen from March to mid-April. While this lower correlation does not mean a complete decoupling, since investor sentiment is still influenced by macroeconomic factors, it does show that Bitcoin is not simply a proxy for technology stocks.

Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset has strengthened

Gold’s inability to maintain its bullish momentum after reaching an all-time high of $3,500 on April 22 was also seen as significant for Bitcoin’s status as an independent asset class. Some traders had questioned the “digital gold” narrative, but the longer BTC remains above $90,000, the more confidence investors may have, potentially paving the way for further gains.

The increased demand for bearish leverage in perpetual BTC futures does not align with the sentiment of professional traders. Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts avoid fluctuating funding rates, so traders know their leverage costs in advance.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

On April 26, the two-month Bitcoin futures premium (basis rate) rose to its highest level in seven weeks, indicating greater interest in bullish positions. At 6.5%, this metric remains within the neutral 5% to 10% range, but is moving away from bearish territory.

The disconnect between leverage demand in perpetual futures and monthly BTC contracts is not unusual. Even if retail traders remain cautious, substantial accumulation by institutions could be enough to push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000 in the near future.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coin Market

Semler Scientific boosts BTC holdings with $50M purchase

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Semler Scientific, a medical device company, purchased of $50 million worth of Bitcoin between May 13 and May 22, bringing the market value of the company’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to $474.4 million, keeping it within the top 13 of BTC Treasury companies.

According to a May 23 disclosure, Semler bought a total of 455 BTC for an average purchase price of $109,801. To buy the Bitcoin, Semler Scientific used proceeds from an at-the-market stock offering program. So far, the company has sold roughly 3 million shares of common stock for net proceeds of $115 million.

Semler Scientific’s shares have fallen 1.36% on the same day as the disclosure, though the decrease in its share price is largely in line with the Nasdaq’s performance. That index, which follows top tech stocks, is down 1% on the day.

Semler Scientific share price. Source: Google Finance

In its Q1 2025 earnings report released on May 13, the company revealed a 44% drop in revenue year-over-year. Despite the claimed success of its Bitcoin treasury plan, Semler Scientific’s shares have dropped 18% in 2025, according to Google Finance.

Bitcoin treasury companies, or companies that traditionally sell equity or issue debt to buy BTC, had been drawing the interest of investors looking for exposure to Bitcoin price fluctuations.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy debuted its BTC reserve in August 2020, when it started purchasing Bitcoin. Bitcoin is up 181.6% year to date, while Semler Scientific shares rose 53% since announcing the BTC approach in May 2024.

Magazine: ZK-proofs are bringing smart contracts to Bitcoin — BitcoinOS and Starknet

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Onchain privacy is a necessity in the age of AI — Shielded CEO

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Blockchain privacy tools such as zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs will become increasingly necessary to protect online user data in the age of artificial intelligence, according to Eran Barak, CEO of Shielded Technologies, the developer behind the Midnight privacy chain.

In an interview with Cointelegraph at Consensus 2025, Barak said corporate service providers and centralized servers are expected to become honeypots for AI-assisted hackers and malicious actors looking to steal valuable data, including private keys, financial metadata, medical records, and government documents.

Hackers targeting centralized entities have a “massive” return on investment (ROI) and are incentivized to hack centralized targets that contain millions of valuable records, the CEO told Cointelegraph. Barak added that ZK-proofs, a way of verifying onchain data without revealing it, solve this problem:

“Blockchain is going to improve cybersecurity around the world, because, for a hacker to get to actual data, they need to hack individual wallets, but their ROI would be one record instead of millions — not worth it. They are going to go elsewhere.”

Privacy solutions have become a major focus for many Web3 developers, as the need to shield metadata from AI algorithms grows and large institutions demand privacy tools to protect sensitive data as a prerequisite to bringing their business operations onchain.

Midnight generates shielded assets that provide users with onchain privacy while maintaining compliance. Source: Midnight

Related: EU to ban anonymous crypto accounts and privacy coins by 2027

Cardano’s Hoskinson teases multichain airdrop

Speaking at Consensus 2025, Cardano co-founder Charles Hoskinson announced an upcoming Midnight token airdrop for holders of Avax (AVAX), XRP (XRP), Bitcoin (BTC), Brave Attention Token (BAT), and others. Midnight is a partner chain of the Cardano network.

Hoskinson the multichain airdrop will unite the industry through cooperative tokenomics and will promote collaboration. “We have a chance to come together again, and I think in this divisive era, the industry absolutely needs that.”

Charles Hoskinson at Consensus 2025. Source: Cointelegraph

Barak also told Cointelegraph that Midnight would invite interested users across the entire Web3 ecosystem to mine the Midnight token following the initial multichain airdrop.

Magazine: UK’s Orwellian AI murder prediction system, will AI take your job? AI Eye

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Solana 'will make everyone an investor' — Solana nCMO

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The current structure of capital markets is failing to serve a broad base of investors, according to Akshay BD, non-chief marketing officer at the Solana Foundation. During a panel at the Accelerate 2025 conference, Akshay argued that blockchain technology could help address these shortcomings, claiming that Solana could “make everyone an investor or a dreamer over time.”

Akshay noted growing uncertainty among investors, citing concerns from investment managers who report heightened anxiety among clients. “You have low bond yields, you have asset price bubbles, and people don’t really know how the traditional asset allocation model works anymore,” he said. The 60-40 portfolio hasn’t delivered consistent returns in a long time.”

He attributed some of this tension to a widening gap between income earned through wages and wealth accumulated through asset ownership. Retail investors, he added, are often locked out of private markets, which are typically accessible only to accredited investors — a dynamic that may be contributing to overheated public markets.

Akshay BD at Accelerate. Source: Cointelegraph

Akshay warned that the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence could further deepen existing economic divides. “The question is, which way do we go?” he asked. “Is it […] universal basic income, where we’re essentially creating a welfare economy to support those unable to keep jobs or own assets? Or is it what we propose, universal basic ownership, where everybody with a mobile phone can own assets?”

He outlined a vision in which crypto infrastructure enables broader asset ownership, allowing individuals to invest in everything from energy companies to local coffee shops through tokenization. In this model, acquiring an ownership stake could be as easy as scanning a QR code.

In the Solana ecosystem, the “Non-Chief Marketing Officer” (nCMO) is a role within the Solana Foundation that focuses on supporting the Solana community’s marketing efforts.

Related: Fractionalization of real world assets: Is this the holy grail of blockchain tech?

Markets remain above historical averages

Public equity markets in the US have been trading above their historical valuation norms for a long time. According to data from market analytics firm Multpl, the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has consistently remained above 19.6 since December 2018, higher than the index’s historical average P/E ratio of around 16.1 and suggesting that investors have been willing to pay a premium for earnings in recent years.

Zooming out, the S&P 500’s average valuation has been gradually rising for decades, driven by factors such as low interest rates, growing corporate gains, and investor optimism about technology. However, high valuations have also coincided with periods of market corrections, like the dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market.

S&P 500 P/E ratio since inception. Source: Multipl

According to Akshay, a way to combat this overheating is to open up certain markets to retail investors, a lofty goal that some sectors of crypto, like RWA tokenization, aim to facilitate. Akshay noted that some entrepreneurs had tried this before, but the available technology didn’t support this view. “[Crypto] starts with the game, and very quickly becomes profound.”

“What it gives you is the ability for you to financialize all the productive assets in an economy, so you can have anybody who participates in that economy be an owner of that economy,” he said.

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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