Coin Market

What are reciprocal tariffs, and what do they mean for the crypto industry?

Published

4 weeks ago

April 26, 2025

What are reciprocal tariffs?

Reciprocal tariffs might sound like textbook trade jargon, but the idea is pretty straightforward: If one country slaps tariffs on your goods, you hit back with the same. Think of it as a tit-for-tat strategy in global trade — a way for governments to say, “If you’re charging our exporters 20%, we’re doing the same to yours.”

The roots of this concept go back to the 1930s, when the US passed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. The goal back then was to break down trade barriers through mutual deals, not trade wars. But fast forward to today, and the term is making a comeback — this time with a bit more edge.

For example, in early 2025, in an effort to address what it perceived as unfair trade practices and a significant trade deficit, the US government, under President Donald Trump, imposed a series of escalating tariffs on Chinese imports. These tariffs began with a 10% baseline and, through successive increases, reached a staggering 145% on a wide range of Chinese goods.

China responded in kind, implementing its own set of reciprocal tariffs. Initially, Beijing imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports, which was later increased to 84% and eventually to 125%, targeting various American products, including agricultural goods and machinery.

So, what does this have to do with crypto? You’ll get there — but first, let’s dig into how these tariffs actually work.

How do reciprocal tariffs work?

While the US has recently adopted a formula based on trade imbalances to determine its tariff rates, other countries, like China, often respond with their own set of tariffs, which may not follow the same calculation method.

How the US calculates its tariffs

In 2025, the US implemented a tariff strategy that calculates rates based on the trade deficit with a particular country. The formula used is:

Tariff rate (%) = (US trade deficit with country / US imports from country) × 100 / 2

Example:

US imports from China: $438.9 billionUS exports to China: $147 billionTrade deficit: $291.9 billionDeficit ratio: ($291.9 billion ÷ $438.9 billion) × 100 ≈ 66.5%Tariff rate: 66.5% ÷ 2 ≈ 33.25%

This approach led to the US imposing a 34% tariff on Chinese imports in April 2025. Also, these new tariffs don’t replace old ones — they’re added on top. So, if a product already had a 20% tariff and now gets hit with a 34% reciprocal tariff, importers are suddenly paying 54%. That kind of jump can make foreign goods a lot more expensive, fast.

How China responds

When the US imposes tariffs, China often retaliates by targeting sectors that are politically and economically significant to the United States, particularly those that could influence key voter bases.

Targeted sectors:

Agriculture: China has frequently targeted US agricultural products, such as soybeans, pork and beef. For instance, in 2018, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, significantly impacting farmers in states like Iowa, where soybean farming is a major industry.Aerospace: In 2025, China suspended imports of Boeing aircraft and halted purchases of aircraft parts from US companies, affecting the US aerospace sector.

Phased implementation

China often implements tariffs in phases, allowing for strategic adjustments and negotiations:

In early 2025, following US tariff increases, China initially imposed a 34% tariff on all US goods. This was later increased to 84% and eventually to 125% in response to escalating US tariffs.China also imposed additional tariffs of 10%-15% on various US agricultural products, including corn, soybeans and wheat, as part of its retaliatory measures.

While the US uses a specific formula to calculate its tariffs, China’s approach is more about strategic retaliation, aiming to create economic and political pressure rather than directly matching tariff rates.

Did you know? Policymakers sometimes choose a slightly higher number to send a stronger political message — especially if they want to appear tough on trade or take a hard line against a specific country. A flat “34%” sounds more decisive and deliberate than “33.25%.”

Economic implications of reciprocal tariffs

Reciprocal tariffs ripple through the global economy in very real ways. When the US and China start trading blows with import taxes, everyone else feels the aftershocks, too.

Global trade slows down

In early 2025, the World Trade Organization had some stark news: Global trade, which was supposed to grow by around 3%, is now barely moving at all — closer to 0.2%. The WTO pointed directly to the US’s aggressive tariff strategy and the domino effect it’s having on other economies. As countries respond with their own barriers, goods just… stop moving. Fewer exports, fewer imports and a whole lot of uncertainty.

Developing countries get squeezed

Smaller economies — like Cambodia, Laos and others that rely on exporting cheap goods to big markets like the US — are getting hit especially hard. When tariffs go up, American buyers pull back. That means fewer factory orders, lost jobs and shrinking income in places that can’t easily absorb the shock.

Prices go up at home

Meanwhile, consumers in the US are starting to notice the pinch, too. Tariffs on Chinese goods have made everything from electronics to basic household items more expensive. Even American companies that depend on imported parts are paying more — and passing those costs down the line. Inflation is already high, and this just adds fuel to the fire.

Did you know? The International Monetary Fund projected that the trade war could reduce global GDP growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025.

Reciprocal tariffs’ impact on crypto

When governments start slapping tariffs on each other, it sends a signal that things are unstable — and financial markets hate uncertainty. Stocks, bonds and, yes, crypto all react when global trade flows get disrupted.

Market volatility

When the US announced a 50% tariff on Chinese imports in early April 2025, the crypto markets reacted swiftly. Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped to $74,500, and Ether (ETH) saw a decline of over 20%. This sharp downturn highlighted how sensitive cryptocurrencies are to macroeconomic shifts and investor sentiment.

However, the situation began to stabilize after President Trump paused most tariffs for 90 days. By April 22, Bitcoin had rebounded above $92,000, reflecting the crypto market’s responsiveness to policy changes.

Mining operations

US Bitcoin miners are facing increased operational costs due to tariffs on imported mining equipment. With tariffs as high as 36% on essential hardware from countries such as China and Taiwan, miners are now grappling with higher capital expenditures.

This is especially hard on smaller operations. Larger firms might be able to absorb the extra costs or renegotiate supplier deals — but smaller or mid-sized miners? They’re the ones getting squeezed. As margins shrink, some may be forced to shut down or relocate to tariff-free jurisdictions.

Did you know? US Bitcoin miners faced a 22%-36% increase in equipment costs in early 2025 due to tariffs on Chinese-made mining hardware, leading some to consider relocating operations overseas.

Investment trends

Economic uncertainty often drives investors to look for safe havens — and crypto, increasingly, fits that bill. When traditional markets become volatile due to things like global tariff escalations, many investors turn to Bitcoin and other digital assets as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation or geopolitical risk.

There’s also been a noticeable uptick in institutional interest. With governments engaging in trade battles and inflating the costs of doing business across borders, crypto is starting to look like a more stable long-term play. In Q1 2025, for example, a number of hedge funds and sovereign wealth vehicles began allocating to digital assets in response to these global macro pressures.

The establishment of a US strategic crypto reserve — reportedly holding both BTC and ETH — is a clear signal that crypto is no longer a fringe asset in the eyes of traditional finance or policymakers.

Strategic considerations for crypto stakeholders

For anyone in crypto — whether you’re building the infrastructure, mining the coins or managing investor portfolios — these policy shifts are very real and very relevant.

Diversify

If you’re a miner or a hardware-dependent startup relying on one supplier or country for equipment? That’s a liability. Tariffs can spike overnight, slashing your margins and forcing expensive workarounds.

Diversifying your supply chain — whether through sourcing from neutral countries or investing in domestic alternatives — can soften the blow.

Understand the regulatory landscape

Crypto companies can’t afford to be blind to policy anymore. Tariffs, trade barriers, sanctions — these are market-moving forces. If you deal with mining, cross-border payments or even just hardware shipments, you need to stay plugged into both local and international trade developments.

This is where having legal and trade experts on your side becomes less of a luxury and more of a survival tool.

Rethink the narrative

There’s a unique opportunity here to reposition crypto. When traditional economic systems are being shaken by trade wars and retaliatory tariffs, the idea of a decentralized, borderless financial alternative starts to resonate on a whole new level.

Crypto has long pitched itself as a hedge against inflation and a tool for financial freedom. In the context of rising global protectionism and economic fragmentation, those messages carry more weight than ever.

Smart projects and investors will lean into this narrative, growing from the rain as opposed to simply weathering the storm.

Coin Market

Durov blocked from attending Oslo Freedom Forum — Human Rights Foundation

Published

3 hours ago

May 24, 2025

Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov will not be physically attending the Oslo Freedom Forum in Oslo, Norway, after French courts denied his request to travel to the Scandinavian country.

According to an announcement from the Human Rights Foundation (HRF) — a non-profit organization that advocates for universal human rights and individual liberty, and the host of the Oslo Freedom Forum — Durov will still deliver his keynote address remotely over a livestream.

“It is unfortunate that French courts would block Mr. Durov from participating in an event where his voice is so needed,” HRF founder and CEO Thor Halvorssen said.

Durov continues to be a vocal advocate for free speech and individual liberty. Tech and crypto industry executives closely monitor developments related to Pavel Durov and the implications for individual freedom from his ongoing legal battle in France.

Source: Pavel Durov

Durov claims French intelligence services asked him to censor conservative voices

Pavel Durov recently accused French intelligence officials of asking him to censor conservative-leaning political content related to the Romanian presidential elections on the Telegram platform.

Durov said that he flatly denied the request. “You can’t ‘defend democracy’ by destroying democracy. You can’t ‘fight election interference’ by interfering with elections,” Durov wrote in a May 18 Telegram post.

Although the Telegram founder did not initially name the intelligence official or the European Union country that asked him to censor the content, Durov later revealed more concrete details. The Telegram co-founder wrote in a May 18 X post:

“This spring at the Salon des Batailles, in the Hôtel de Crillon, Nicolas Lerner, head of French intelligence, asked me to ban conservative voices in Romania ahead of elections. I refused. We didn’t block protesters in Russia, Belarus, or Iran. We won’t start doing it in Europe.”

Durov has repeatedly stated that Telegram will not censor political content on the platform and would exit markets before restricting free speech on the social messaging application.

The Telegram co-founder said that complying with such heavy-handed political censorship constitutes a human rights violation.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in

Coin Market

Industry exec sounds alarm on Ledger phishing letter delivered by USPS

Published

4 hours ago

May 24, 2025

Scammers posing as Ledger, a hardware wallet manufacturer, are sending physical letters to crypto users instructing them to “validate” their wallets or risk losing access to funds, in the latest phishing attack to impact the industry.

BitGo CEO Mike Belshe shared a picture of the scam letter, which featured a QR code, presumably linked to a malicious phishing site. The letter was sent through the United States Postal Service (USPS), according to the executive.

“These are all scams do not fall for any of these,” Troy Lindsey wrote after receiving a copy of the phishing letter.

A copy of the scam Phishing letter. Source: Mike Belshe

Cointelegraph reached out to Ledger for comment but was unable to obtain a response by the time of publication.

This phishing attempt highlights the ever-evolving complexity and tactics of social engineering scams designed to steal crypto private keys, user funds, and other sensitive data from unsuspecting victims.

Coinbase and crypto users hit hard by phishing attacks in 2025

In April 2025, $330 million in Bitcoin (BTC) was stolen from an elderly individual through a phishing attack, onchain detective ZackXBT confirmed in an April 30 X post.

“Two suspects in the $330 million heist include ‘Nina/Mo’ — a Somalian who operates a call scam center in Camden, UK — and an accomplice ‘W0rk,’ who assisted with the site and call,” the onchain security analyst said in an update.

On May 15, crypto exchange Coinbase announced it was the target of a ransom attempt after customer service contractors, who were later fired by the company, leaked user data to threat actors.

The scammers demanded a $20 million ransom, which Coinbase refused to pay, and the stolen data included names, addresses, contact information, and a limited amount of other sensitive account data belonging to a small subset of Coinbase customers.

No private keys, login credentials, or accesses to Coinbase Prime accounts were compromised during the leak, according to the exchange.

TechCrunch founder Michael Arrington was highly critical of the exchange for the security failure, arguing that it will lead to physical violence against customers exposed in the hack.

Magazine: Crypto-Sec: Phishing scammer goes after Hedera users, address poisoner gets $70K

Coin Market

Bitcoin inflows projected to reach $420B in 2026 — Bitwise

Published

5 hours ago

May 24, 2025

Key takeaways:

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already surpassed gold ETFs in early growth, with projections of $100 billion in annual inflows by 2027.

Publicly listed companies and nation-states currently hold nearly 1.7 million BTC, pointing to long-term confidence.

Bitwise projects $120 billion in Bitcoin inflows by 2025 and $300 billion by 2026.

Bitcoin (BTC) demand from a diverse range of investors—including publicly listed companies building Bitcoin treasuries, sovereign wealth funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and nation-states—is projected to drive substantial capital inflows to the asset in the coming years. According to crypto index fund management firm Bitwise, inflows to Bitcoin could reach $120 billion by the end of 2025, with an additional $300 billion anticipated in 2026.

In its recent report, “Forecasting Institutional Flows to Bitcoin in 2025/2026,” Bitwise highlights that US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $36.2 billion in net inflows in 2024, surpassing the early success of SPDR gold Shares (GLD), which revolutionized gold investing. Bitcoin ETFs reached $125 billion in assets under management (AUM) within 12 months—20 times faster than GLD—projecting Bitcoin to outperform gold significantly, with inflows potentially tripling to $100 billion annually by 2027.

Spot Bitcoin and gold ETFs forecast projections. Source: Bitwise

Despite this surge, $35 billion in Bitcoin demand remained sidelined in 2024 due to risk-averse compliance policies at major corporations like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, which manage $60 trillion in client assets. These firms require multi-year track records, but growing BTC ETF legitimacy is expected to unlock this capital.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, remarked that Bitcoin trading above $100,000 signals its potential to take over gold’s role as a store of value. His analysis also pointed to the recent convergence of Bitcoin and gold’s Sharpe ratios, suggesting that both assets are becoming increasingly comparable in terms of risk-adjusted returns.

The bull, bear and base cases for BTC wealth allocation

In addition to ETFs and wealth management firms, Bitcoin’s appeal as a reserve asset is rising among the public, private companies and sovereign nations. Companies with Bitcoin on the books currently hold around 1,146,128 BTC, worth $125 billion, accounting for 5.8% of BTC’s total supply.

Sovereign nations collectively hold 529,705 BTC ($57.8 billion), with the United States (207,189 BTC), China (194,000 BTC), and the United Kingdom (61,000 BTC) leading the pack.

Bitwise Senior investment strategist Juan Leon, UXTO research lead Guillaume Girard and research analyst Will Owens expect a continued wealth allocation to BTC, and outlined bear, base, and bull case scenarios.

In the bear case, nation-states reallocated just 1% of their gold reserves to Bitcoin, driving $32.3 billion in inflows (323,000 BTC or 1.54% of supply). Multiple US states created BTC reserves at 10%, adding $6.5 billion, while wealth management platforms allocated 0.1% of assets ($60 billion). Public companies contributed another $58.9 billion, bringing the total inflows to over $150 billion.

The base case envisions a 5% nation-state reallocation, generating $161.7 billion (1,617,000 BTC or 7.7% of supply). US states raised their adoption to 30% ($19.6 billion), wealth platforms allocated 0.5% ($300 billion), and public companies doubled their holdings to $117.8 billion. This scenario aligns with Bitwise’s forecast of $120 billion by 2025 and $300 billion by 2026, capturing 20.32% of Bitcoin’s supply.

In the bull case, a 10% nation-state swap of gold to Bitcoin drives $323.4 billion in inflows (3,234,000 BTC or 15.38% of supply). US state adoption rises to 70% ($45.8 billion), wealth platforms allocate 1% ($600 billion), and public companies quadruple their holdings to $235.6 billion. Altogether, these inflows could exceed $426.9 billion, absorbing 4,269,000 BTC.

The acceleration of institutional investor and government interest in BTC underscores growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. With 94.6% of its supply already mined (19,868,987 BTC as of May 2025), Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency debasement.

Related: Will Bitcoin bulls secure $110K before BTC’s $13.8B options expiry?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.