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Bitcoin rally to $86K shows investor confidence, but it’s too early to confirm a trend reversal

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Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9, analysts are beginning to question whether BTC could be gearing up for a reversal of the downward trend that’s persisted since the start of the year.BTC/USD 1-day, RSI 1-week. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

For some, like the veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but hopium. As he noted in his X post,

“Of all chart construction, trendlines are the LEAST significant. A trendline violation does NOT signify a transition of the BTC trend. Sorry.”

Others, however, see more reason for cautious optimism. Analyst Kevin Svenson highlighted a possible weekly RSI breakout, pointing out that “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators.” 

Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand—and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout. Furthermore, the bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal. 

Bitcoin demand — Are there early signs of recovery?

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.

However, the analysts caution against prematurely declaring a trend reversal. Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery only followed extended consolidation. 

This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and confirmation are still needed to confirm a shifting momentum.

Bitcoin: apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle. Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite.

Bitcoin trading volume. Source: CryptoQuant

Institutional investors confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the spot BTC ETFs have recorded continuous outflows totaling over $870 million, with the first modest inflow not occurring until April 15. Despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — indicating that some investor appetite for Bitcoin persists.

Related: Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase

Bitcoin supply — Will liquidity return?

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This points to a continued lack of meaningful new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode notes, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”

Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — often used to gauge available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018.

Yet, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts see reasons for cautious hope. Independent market analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed out the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.

“If the correlation remains, he wrote, then I assume that we’ll see Bitcoin rally to an ATH in this quarter. This would also imply a rise in CNH/USD, a fall in Yields, a fall in Gold, a fall in DXY, and a rise in Altcoins.”Global M2 – 12-week lead. Source: Global Macro Investor

Even if bullish momentum and demand returns, Bitcoin will need to clear a critical resistance zone between $86,300 and $86,500, as shown on CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap, which maps dense clusters of buy and sell orders at different levels.

Alphractal adds another layer of insight through its Alpha Price Chart, which incorporates realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment — and comes to the same conclusion. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Bitcoin: Alpha price. Source: Alphractal

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. Still, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A decisive breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

eToro prices IPO above range at $52 a share to raise $620M

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Crypto and stock trading platform eToro has boosted the size of its initial public offering to $620 million by pricing its shares above its previously suggested range.

The platform and its backers sold over 11.92 million shares for $52 each, which are slated to start trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on May 14 under the ticker symbol ETOR, eToro said in a May 13 press release.

Initially, the firm aimed to raise $500 million by offering 10 million shares priced between $46 to $50 each.

The share offering will remain open until at least May 15 and consists of more than 5.9 million shares sold by eToro and 5.9 million shares sold by specific existing shareholders.

The Israel-based eToro will go public as a rival to Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD), which went public in July 2021 and whose shares are up over 67% year to date, according to Google Finance. 

Robinhood closed May 13 trading up over 67% at $62 per share, nearing its all-time high of $65, which it hit in February. Source: Google Finance

Initially, eToro made confidential filings with the SEC in January for a public offering before publicly announcing the plans on March 24.

Digital banking fintech firm Chime has also applied to list its stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol CHY. However, the number of shares and price range are still to be determined.

Investment advisory firm Renaissance Capital speculated in a May 13 note to its clients that Chime’s IPO could raise up to $1 billion.

Crypto IPOs in the works

Other crypto companies are also mulling plans to go public. Crypto exchange Kraken is reportedly considering a public offering this year.

Stablecoin issuer Circle filed with the SEC on April 1, then paused its plans after President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements tanked global markets and stopped many in-the-works public offerings.

Crypto custody services firm BitGo launched a global over-the-counter trading desk for digital assets in February, after it was reported to be gearing up for an initial public offering slated for later this year.

Related: eToro US to cease nearly all crypto trading following SEC settlement

In December last year, crypto exchange-traded fund issuer Bitwise predicted that at least five crypto unicorns would go public in 2025: stablecoin issuer Circle, crypto exchanges Kraken and Figure, and crypto bank Anchorage Digital and blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis.

In 2021, Coinbase was the first major crypto firm to go public in the US, listing its shares on the Nasdaq. 

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

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Coin Market

Thailand to tokenize $150M government bonds for retail investors: Report

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Thailand’s Ministry of Finance reportedly plans to issue $150 million worth of digital investment tokens, allowing retail investors to buy government bonds.

The Bangkok Post reported on May 13 that Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira announced the initiative at a briefing after the cabinet endorsed the plan. He added that the tokens will be launched within the next two months.

The so-called “G-tokens” will be used to raise funds from the public under the current budget borrowing plan, said Patchara Anuntasilpa, director-general of the Public Debt Management Office. He added that these were not debt instruments.

“One big selling point of the token is that it allows more retail investors to become part of the digital economy,” he said, adding that for as little as $3, “they can invest in government bonds.” 

Until recently, retail investors have been limited or excluded from large investment product offerings in Thailand, which are predominantly aimed at institutional and wealthy investors.

Finance Minister Pichai said the initial token mint is designed to “test the market” and investors will earn higher returns than bank deposits, but did not specify yields.

Commercial banks in Thailand offer very low interest rates to savers, currently just 1.25% for a 12-month fixed deposit, which is much lower than rates set by its central bank, which has kept rates elevated until recently despite increasing economic woes. 

Related: Tether Gold enters Thailand with listing on Maxbit exchange

The report noted that the asset was not a cryptocurrency. It would be tradable on licensed digital asset exchanges, which are not accessible to non-Thai citizens residing in the country.

Government bonds are debt securities issued by the state to fund public spending. When investors buy them, they are essentially lending money to the government for a specified period in exchange for regular interest payments and the return of their principal at maturity.

In February, Thailand’s securities regulator revealed plans to launch a tokenized securities trading system for institutional investors. 

Global bond value onchain doubles in 2025

The value of tokenized bonds globally has surged recently and is currently $225 million, according to real-world asset tokenization analytics platform RWA.xyz. 

Global bond value onchain. Source: RWA.xyz

The onchain value has doubled since the beginning of this year, and could be much higher since the platform only tracks a limited number of issuers, primarily in Europe.

However, the value of tokenized US treasures has grown to $6.9 billion, up 73% this year, according to the analytics platform.

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets

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Illicit $8B crypto market Xinbi incorporated in Colorado: Elliptic

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A Colorado-incorporated firm has been linked to a Chinese illicit marketplace that has served scammers in Southeast Asia and has been used to channel billions of dollars worth of crypto.

The marketplace, called Xinbi Guarantee, has received $8.4 billion, primarily in Tether (USDT) stablecoin transactions to date, blockchain security firm Elliptic reported on May 13. 

Merchants on the Chinese-language, Telegram-based illicit marketplace sell technology, personal data, and money laundering services to Southeast Asian scammers who target victims using pig butchering scams. 

On its website, Xinbi describes itself as an “investment and capital guarantee group company” and claims to operate through Xinbi Co. Ltd, a Colorado-incorporated company incorporated in 2022. 

Screenshots showing Xinbi Co. Ltd’s incorporation in the US state of Colorado. Source: Elliptic 

“In January 2025, the corporation was updated to ‘Delinquent’ for failing to file a periodic report,” Elliptic reported.

Key services offered on the black marketplace are money laundering services, which are the largest category, as well as technology such as Starlink equipment for scammers, stolen personal data for targeting victims and fake IDs and other fraudulent documents.

Xinbi is the second-largest illicit online marketplace discovered so far, with transaction volume growing rapidly. Q4 2024 saw over $1 billion transacted, and evidence links the platform to North Korean hackers laundering stolen funds, the Elliptic researchers said. 

Related: Largest ‘illicit online marketplace’ has grown 51% in 6 months: Elliptic

Elliptic identified thousands of crypto addresses used by Xinbi Guarantee and the merchants on it, and stated that the $8.4 billion in transactions “should be considered as lower bounds of the true volume of transactions on the platform.”

The platform, which has 233,000 users, operates on a “guarantee model,” requiring vendor deposits to prevent fraud. 

Second to Huione Guarantee

In July 2024, Elliptic exposed a similar Telegram-based Chinese marketplace known as Huione Guarantee.

The firm found that the wider Huione Group of companies had facilitated over $98 billion in crypto transactions.

In early May, it was designated by the US Treasury as a money-laundering operation and was to be severed from the US banking system. 

Illicit marketplace crypto transaction volumes. Source: Elliptic

These platforms also provide a window into a “China-based underground banking system,” based around stablecoins and other digital payments, “which is being leveraged for money laundering on a significant scale,” Elliptic concluded. 

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets

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