Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price 'seasonality?'

Published

3 weeks ago

April 15, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) demands a breakout as a key leading indicator reaches its highest levels since January.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the relative strength index (RSI) hinting at more BTC price gains next.

Bitcoin RSI breakout has days to “full confirmation”

Bitcoin bull runs traditionally begin with telltale RSI signals, and on daily timeframes, conditions are ripe for a classic BTC price rebound.

As BTC/USD made lower lows over the past month, RSI began trending in the opposite direction, setting higher lows and attempting a type of bullish divergence.

More recently, the daily RSI broke above the 50 midpoint, only to successfully retest it as support from above before making new multimonth highs.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among those monitoring the topic is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

“Bitcoin has successfully retested red as support & the Daily RSI Higher Low continues to maintain itself as well,” he commented alongside a chart in an X post this weekend.

“Growing signs of a maturing Bullish Divergence here, with price just below the key Price Downtrend (blue).”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Rekt Capital also reported that RSI trends suggested a long-term BTC price floor at around $70,000.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Kevin Svenson captured similarly promising signals on weekly RSI this week.

“Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators,” he told X followers.

“6 Days until full confirmation.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Kevin Svenson/X

As Cointelegraph reported, another key breakout currently under the microscope for Bitcoin market participants involves a downward-sloping trendline in place since January’s all-time highs.

April BTC price performance far below median

Countering the bullish anticipation is an analysis focusing on the troublesome macroeconomic conditions in which Bitcoin now finds itself.

The ongoing US trade war and risk-asset rout make for an unlikely influx of capital to BTC, which has closely followed stocks while gold sets repeated all-time highs.

In his latest forecast for April, network economist Timothy Peterson saw little reason to celebrate.

Uploading a chart of the median yearly price path for BTC/USD, he concluded that this year was a firm underperformer.

“Half the days are above the blue line and half are below it. This April is obviously a ‘below’ month,” part of accompanying commentary read.

“That is almost certainly not going to change, given the level of interest rates and other risk factors at work in the market and economy.”

BTC price seasonality. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Other perspectives likewise see a lackluster April before bullish undercurrents catch up with Bitcoin, these in the form of record global M2 money supply and a weakening US dollar index (DXY).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Strive to become Bitcoin treasury company

Published

29 minutes ago

May 7, 2025

Strive Asset Management, founded by entrepreneur and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, has revealed plans to transition into a Bitcoin treasury company.

According to a May 7 announcement, Strive is going public through a reverse merger and plans to use the combined company’s stock to accumulate Bitcoin (BTC).

The deal will see Strive merging with Asset Entities — a social media marketing company listed on the Nasdaq. The combined entity will operate under the Strive brand and use its access to the public equity markets to finance Bitcoin purchases, the company said.

Once the deal closes, Strive plans to issue approximately $1 billion in equity and debt and use the proceeds to accumulate BTC. The asset manager “intends to use all available mechanisms to build a Bitcoin war chest […] and build a long-term investment approach designed to outperform Bitcoin,” it said.

Strive plans to allow “Bitcoin holders to contribute Bitcoin in exchange for public stock through a structure that is intended to be tax-free,” it said. As of May 7, the company manages approximately $2 billion in net assets across a variety of funds.

In December, Strive filed to list an exchange-traded fund (ETF) investing in convertible bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other corporate Bitcoin buyers.

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries are increasingly popular. Source: Bitcointreasuries.net

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries have become popular since the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Wall Street. Companies pioneering the Bitcoin buyer approach, such as Strategy have seen their share prices surge by 350% in 2024.

Analysts say adding Bitcoin to corporate treasuries can “potentially be a valuable hedge against growing fiscal deficits, currency debasement, and geopolitical risks,” asset manager Fidelity Digital Assets said in a 2024 report.

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries collectively hold roughly $74 billion worth of BTC as of May 7, according to Bitcointreasuries.net.

Ramaswamy founded Strive in 2022. Source: Strive

Trump connection

Ramaswamy, an outspoken ally of President-elect Donald Trump, founded Strive in 2022. Its stated goal is to help investors “harness the power of capitalism,” according to Strive’s website.

In 2023, Ramaswamy — who largely earned his $1 billion net worth from biotechnology startup Roivant Sciences — campaigned against Trump in the Republican presidential primary. He later endorsed the president-elect.

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Coin Market

Bitcoin 'Realized Cap' hits $890B as BTC traders focus on recapturing $100K

Published

29 minutes ago

May 7, 2025

Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin’s realized capitalization hit a record $890 billion, reflecting strong investor conviction as long-term and short-term holders increased allocations.

Large Bitcoin holders with over 1,000 BTC have accumulated significantly since March 2025, reflecting the Q1 2024 trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) price saw a short-squeeze above $97,000 on May 6, shortly after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that trade talks would commence with China on May 10. At the same time, BTC’s realized capitalization, a metric adding the dollar value of all coins at their last moved price, soared to a new all-time high of $890 billion on May 7, 2025. The surge also marks the metric’s third consecutive week of record-breaking growth.

Bitcoin realized cap. Source: CryptoQuant

The realized cap’s rise highlights the total investment held by Bitcoin owners, with long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) increasing their positions. It reflects investors’ conviction, signaling a potential anticipation for a price breakout.

Recent market trends have supported this optimism. Cointelegraph reported that large Bitcoin holders have been actively accumulating Bitcoin since late March 2025. Data indicates that wallets between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 81,338 BTC over six weeks. This accumulation signals confidence in the current price uptrend and the possibility of BTC returning to $100,000.

Glassnode data revealed a notable rise in Bitcoin whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC, climbing from 1,945 on March 1 to 2,006 on May 7. This marks the most significant 30-day increase for this cohort in 2025 and the highest surge since Q1 2024, when a similar accumulation trend preceded Bitcoin’s all-time high in March 2024.

Bitcoin whale count balance >1K BTC. Source: Glassnode

Can Bitcoin rally to $100,000?

Bitcoin’s support zone between $93,000 and $95,000 showed resilience on May 6, with BTC bulls holding the level, supported by activity in long perpetual positions.

There is downside liquidity between $91,600 and $89,000, which Bitcoin could retest if bearish momentum persists after this week’s FOMC minutes and Federal Reserve presser. However, if BTC breaks above the resistance zone of $97,000 to $99,000, the higher time frame (HTF) outlook could tilt toward bulls.

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This resistance area carries weight due to a price cluster formed in Q1, which previously led to a downward move. If BTC price clears $99,000, it might shift market dynamics, potentially pressuring short positions and adding to bullish liquidity.

The $100,000 level appears to be more of a psychological marker than a significant resistance level. If BTC surpasses the $97,000-$99,000 resistance and establishes it as support, it could pave the way for a move toward $110,000, although this would depend on market conditions and momentum.

Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, suggested that the dip below $94,000 and subsequent recovery may indicate a market bottom. He expressed optimism about a potential Bitcoin breakout to $100,000 within the next two weeks.

On the other hand, crypto trader Honey expected a steady rise for BTC, predicting a new all-time high of $111,111 by the end of Q2.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Bybit recovers liquidity levels 30 days after hack — Kaiko

Published

1 hour ago

May 7, 2025

The Bybit exchange has recovered its liquidity to pre-hack levels just 30 days following the February 2025 attack that drained nearly $1.5 billion in funds.

According to a report from crypto research and analytics firm Kaiko, Bitcoin’s (BTC) 1% market depth, a measure of liquidity, returned to pre-hack levels of around $13 million per day in March 2025.

Bitcoin liquidity on Bybit exchange rebounds to pre-hack levels. Source: Kaiko

Altcoin liquidity levels on the exchange have been slower to recover than Bitcoin but have rebounded to around 80% of the pre-hack levels. The authors of the Kaiko report added:

“This lag is largely due to the risk-off market environment, which has impacted altcoins more severely. While Bitcoin is still seen as a risky asset, it remains the crypto market’s safe haven.”

Overall, the exchange’s trading volumes remain in recovery; however, the report notes that this drop reflects the broader market trend in response to the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty that has rattled risk asset markets and is not an effect of the biggest hack in crypto history.

Altcoin liquidity on the platform has been slower to recover than Bitcoin liquidity. Source: Kaiko

Bybit’s incident response

The Bybit exchange was hacked by cybercriminals on February 21, 2025, resulting in $1.5 billion in stolen funds. A post-mortem update revealed a compromised device from a SafeWallet developer, the firm responsible for the multi-signature wallet custody solution used by the exchange, as the cause of the hack.

Bybit kept withdrawals open during the incident, allowing users to access and pull their funds with little delay during the crisis.

A condensed timeline of events of the February 2025 Bybit hack. Source: Kaiko

Ben Zhou, the CEO of Bybit, reassured investors that the exchange was solvent and said that the company’s reserves could cover the shortfall whether or not the stolen funds were ever recovered.

Zhou’s response united the crypto industry behind Bybit, with many competitors providing bridge loans to the exchange, technical assistance, and freezing the stolen funds on their protocols.

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