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Bitcoin price tags $86K as Trump tariff relief boosts breakout odds

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Bitcoin (BTC) hit an eleven-day high on April 13 as the crypto market relief rally closely tracked US financial policy changes.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin traders say brace for more volatility

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD reaching $86,000 for the first time since April 2.

The pair had reacted well to news that US President Donald Trump had decided to exclude certain key products from his ongoing trade tariffs against China.

Traditional markets are closed on weekends —creating lower-liquidity trading in crypto markets and raising the chance for price volatility— with Bitcoin subsequently dropping under $84,000.

With hours to go until the weekly close, BTC/USD was thus up 7% for the week, having started with a trip to new five-month lows.

Commenting, traders were cautious over BTC price strength.

Call me crazy but I don’t think I trust this breakout on $BTC.

Low volume, overbought stoch, and on a weekend.

If we can remain over 84k through Monday I’ll look for higher but for now this seems sketchy. pic.twitter.com/qKVdYAOYPJ

— Roman (@Roman_Trading) April 12, 2025

Daan Crypto Trades noted the ongoing interplay with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $85,000.

“This is however still a weekend move so far and we know next week will be volatile again with news regarding tariffs and the first big tech earnings coming up,” part of a post on X read.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Well-known trader Peter described the rebound from the lows as looking “more corrective than it does impulsive.”

BTC/USD 2-hour chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile saw the true hurdle to a Bitcoin bull market rebound coming in the form of a stubborn long-term daily downtrend.

“Bitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,” one of his latest X updates explained alongside an illustrative chart.

“However BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, the daily downtrend, in place since late 2024, is earmarked as a key hurdle for bulls to overcome.

Related: Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K

RSI bullish divergence still in play

Another post flagged promising signals on Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) indicator.

A classic leading indicator, RSI continued to print another bullish divergence with price on daily timeframes.

“Bitcoin is developing yet another Higher Low on the RSI while forming Lower Lows on the price,” Rekt Capital summarized.

“Overall, throughout the cycle Bitcoin has formed Bullish Divergences like this on a few occasions already. Each Bull Div preceded reversals to the upside.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

ECB flags risk of financial contagion from US crypto push

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The European Central Bank (ECB) raised an alarm over potential fallout from aggressive US support for the crypto industry, warning that a surge in dollar-backed stablecoins could destabilize Europe’s financial system.

According to a policy paper seen by Politico, the ECB has asked for a revision of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies just months after it came into effect.

The concern is that US reforms backed by President Donald Trump could flood European markets with dollar-denominated stablecoins.

The ECB fears this could trigger a flight of European capital into US assets, undermining EU financial sovereignty and exposing banks to liquidity risks.

ECB and European Commission Clash Over MiCA Rules

While the ECB calls for tighter controls, the European Commission dismissed the warnings as exaggerated, per the report.

The report, citing two diplomats and one EU official, said that the existing MiCA framework is robust enough to manage stablecoin risks despite potential US policies like the Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy (STABLE) and the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS), two bills aimed at expanding America’s crypto footprint.

“The Commission was quite clear that they had different views on this topic,” and “not very many (countries) supported the idea that we should now jump the gun and start making quick changes in (the rules) based on this alone,” one of the diplomats reportedly told Politico.

The stablecoin sector now commands a valuation of $234 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The ECB warned that European issuers could face redemption pressures from EU and foreign holders without stricter limits, potentially sparking a financial “run” and harming exposed institutions.

“The worry is warranted,” Mikko Ohtamaa, co-founder and CEO at Trading Strategy, said in a post on X. “However, the EU had the first mover advantage with the regulation and they screwed it up.”

Ohtamaa said no EU stablecoin is globally competitive due to MiCA’s restrictive rules, which are influenced by bank and legacy finance lobbying.

Source: Mikko Ohtamaa

Related: US regulator,s FDIC and CFTC, ease crypto restrictions for banks, derivatives

Tether remains a major critic of MiCA

​Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDt (USDT), has long been a critic of the EU’s MiCA regulation.

Last year, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino argued that MiCA’s requirements, particularly the mandate for stablecoin issuers to hold at least 60% of reserves in EU bank accounts, could introduce systemic risks to both stablecoins and the broader banking system.

Due to noncompliance with MiCA, USDT has faced delistings from major European exchanges, including Coinbase, Crypto.com and Kraken.

Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest

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Coin Market

Bitcoin acting "less Nasdaq" and more like gold, despite 60% recession odds

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Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.

Source: Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”

Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.

Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes

While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.

🇺🇸 LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines said the US government may buy Bitcoin using tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 15, 2025

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote: 

“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report. 

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Coin Market

Polygon NFTs overtake Ethereum collectibles in 7-day sales

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Polygon-based non-fungible tokens (NFTs) took the top spot in digital collectible sales after surging 20% in the last seven days. 

On April 22, NFT data tracker CryptoSlam showed that Polygon NFTs overtook Ethereum, reaching a $22.3 million volume in the past week. This represented 24% of last week’s overall NFT sales volume, which reached $92.9 million. 

The network also had over 39,000 NFT buyers for the week, an 81% increase over the previous week. 

Ethereum remained second in sales, with a $19.2 million NFT sales volume for the week. Mythos Chain followed with $14.3 million, while Bitcoin-based collections ranked fourth with $14.1 million for the week. 

Top blockchains by seven-day NFT sales volume. Source: CryptoSlam

RWA NFT collection drives Polygon surge

The Polygon NFT surge was driven by a single real-world asset (RWA) NFT collection, highlighting that the RWA narrative has reached the NFT space.

RWA tokenization refers to tangible assets minted on the blockchain to increase accessibility and trading opportunities for the assets. Simply put, it’s transforming real-world assets like art, property or even stocks into digital tokens on a blockchain that can be bought, held or traded.

CryptoSlam data shows that increased sales from Courtyard NFTs caused the Polygon NFT surge. The collection reached a sales volume of $20.7 million, eclipsing the performances of other popular NFT projects for the week. 

Courtyard NFT collection tops digital collectible sales volume list. Source: CryptoSlam

Related: Bybit shuts down four more Web3 services after axing NFT marketplace

Courtyard is an RWA marketplace for graded physical card collections. This includes the Pokémon, basketball and baseball cards that are popular among collectors. 

The platform operates by storing and insuring tokenized cards in a vault operated by a security company. This means that NFTs are physically backed. After purchasing NFTs, users can opt to redeem the physical card. When this happens, the NFT is burned and will no longer be traded in the marketplace. 

Onchain RWAs have been a strong narrative in the first quarter of 2025. Data from RWA.xyz shows that tokenized assets have reached $21.2 billion, with total asset holders of more than 97,000. This excludes the value of stablecoins, which is already at $227 billion. 

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