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Bitcoin sellers tap out, clearing the path for a fresh run at new all-time highs

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Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded by over 11% from the April. 7 low of $74,400, and analysts believe that onchain and technical indicators point to a sustained recovery.

According to popular analyst AlphaBTC, Bitcoin will see a sustained recovery if it holds above $81,500.

Bitcoin price reclaimed the $80,000 psychological level after retesting the “weekly open and filling in some of the inefficiency left by the Trump 90-day pause pump,” the analyst said in an April 10 post.

“I really want to see it back above 81.5k soon, and we may see a bit more sustained upside as shorts get squeezed.”

BTC/USD four-hour chart. Source: AlphaBTC

Similar sentiments were shared by fellow analyst Rekt Capital, who said that Bitcoin needs to produce a weekly close above $80,500 to increase the chances of recovery.

“Bitcoin has recently lost the red Weekly level, just confirming BTC isn’t out of the woods yet,” Rekt Capital said in an April Post on X. 

“$BTC needs to stay above red until the Weekly Close for the price to reclaim this Weekly level as support.”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Rekt Capital

Bitcoin price recovery could be fueled by “seller exhaustion”

Bitcoin investors are approaching a degree of “near-term seller exhaustion,” as evidenced by the reduced magnitude of realized losses, according to onchain data from Glassnode. 

Looking at the 6-hour rolling window for realized losses, the market intelligence firm found that the magnitude of losses realized during these drawdowns has started to decrease with each successive price leg lower.

“Bear markets are typically initiated by periods of heightened fear and substantial losses,” Glassnode said in its latest Week On-chain report. 

“This suggests a form of near-term seller-exhaustion may be starting to develop within this price range.”

Bitcoin: 6-hour rolling losses. Source: Glassnode

Related: Is Bitcoin price going to crash again?

Bollinger Bands and W bottom hint at new price highs

After hitting a five-month low of $74,400 on April 9, Bitcoin retested the lower boundary of the Bollinger Bands (BB) indicator, a line that has supported the price over the last five weeks, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD weekly chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: John Bollinger/TradingView

This is an encouraging sign from Bitcoin, according to the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, John Bollinger. The Bollinger Bands indicator uses standard deviation around a simple moving average to determine both likely price ranges and volatility.

Bollinger said that Bitcoin price could be forming the second low of a W-shaped pattern formation — a double-pronged bottom followed by an exit to the upside — on the weekly chart.

“Classic Bollinger Band W bottom setting up in $BTCUSD,” Bollinger commented alongside a chart, adding that the pattern “still needs confirmation.”

In this situation, Bitcoin’s drop to $76,600 on March 11 was the first bottom, and the recent drop to $74,400 was the second.

If confirmed, BTC price could recover from the current levels first toward the neckline of the W-shaped pattern at $88,800 before rising toward the target of the prevailing chart pattern at $106,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

CoinShares Q1 net profit falls to $24M

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CoinShares, a digital asset investment firm with offices in the United States and Europe, said its net profit fell to $24 million in the first quarter of 2025, a 42.2% decrease from the same period a year ago.

Although CoinShares’s profits and EBITDA remained positive in Q1 2025, the margins declined compared to the same period in 2024. Last year, CoinShares posted a net profit of $41.5 million and an EBITDA of $35.5 million in the first three months. Year-over-year, CoinShares’s net profit dropped 42.2% and its EBITDA fell 15.5%.

The firm’s ETPs contributed to the quarter’s performance. For Q1 2025, CoinShares’s ETPs saw net inflows of $268 million, with $202 million coming from its Physical Bitcoin (BITC) ETP. Revenue related to assets under management increased from $24.5 million to $29.6 million, a rise of 20.8%.

Year-to-date, CoinShares’s stock is down 9.4%, according to Google Finance.

CoinShares disclosed a $30 million EBITDA in Q125, despite market turbulence. Source. CoinShares

In a letter to shareholders, the company’s CEO, Jean-Marie Mognetti, said macroeconomic headwinds during the quarter exceeded market movements. “What we are witnessing is not mere market volatility — it is a wholesale transformation of the global economic order.”

According to Mognetti, Ether’s underperformance over the quarter led to $23 million in outflows from its CoinShares Physical Staked Ethereum ETP (ETHE). “Due to broader market corrections — including a 12.1% decline in Bitcoin prices — assets under management (AuM) fell 10.7%, closing Q1 at $1.52 billion.”

Related: Robinhood beats Q1 estimates despite revenue, crypto trading dip

Crypto companies show mixed results during market upheaval

The first wave of Q1 2025 earnings from crypto firms suggests a broadly negative quarter, with revenue declines across sectors.

Coinbase revenue, for instance, fell 10% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, as transaction revenue plummeted 19% to $1.3 billion. Kraken, another US-based cryptocurrency exchange, saw its revenue decline 7% from Q4 2024. Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, also missed Wall Street’s estimates, alongside Bitcoin miner Core Scientific.

The quarter was marked by high volatility across financial markets after US President Donald Trump unleashed global tariffs on trade partners, dragging the BTC price to lows of $78,000 over the period. Ether (ETH) also experienced a significant pullback.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Coin Market

US lawmakers call for change in corporate digital asset taxes

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Two US senators are calling on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “exercise [the department’s] authority” and change a provision affecting taxes on corporate holdings of digital assets.

In a May 12 letter, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno suggested Bessent had the authority to change the definition of “adjusted financial statement income” under existing US law in a way that could reduce what digital asset companies pay in taxes. The proposed adjustment was suggested as a way to modify a provision of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law in 2022.

“Our edge in digital finance is at risk if US companies are taxed more than foreign competitors,” said Lummis in a May 13 X post.

May 12 letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Source: Cynthia Lummis

According to the two senators, the proposed modification would provide “relief to corporations that invest in digital assets.” Lummis has been one of the most outspoken digital asset advocates in Congress, while Moreno took office in January after crypto-backed political action committees spent roughly $40 million to support his 2024 Senate race.

Related: Arizona governor kills two crypto bills, cracks down on Bitcoin ATMs

The Inflation Reduction Act, which went into effect in 2023, imposes a 15% minimum tax on companies that report more than $1 billion in profits for three consecutive years. The measure would seemingly include unrealized crypto gains and losses, leading to Lummis’ and Moreno’s calls for the Treasury Department to “act swiftly.”

Senate awaiting second vote on stablecoin bill

The call from the two senators came as lawmakers in the Senate are expected to consider another vote on the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act — legislation to regulate payment stablecoins in the US. A motion for consideration failed to move forward in the Senate on May 8 due to Democratic lawmakers pushing back on Donald Trump’s ties to the crypto industry.

Lummis, one of the bill’s co-sponsors, suggested that she would continue to support digital asset regulation. The Senate could take up another vote in a matter of days.

Magazine: Best and worst countries for crypto taxes — plus crypto tax tips

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Coin Market

Market volatility indicator still points to $135K Bitcoin within 100 days — Analyst

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Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin price holds above $100,000, driven by “risk-on” sentiment after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to 20.

The Bitcoin Bull Score Index surged to 80, and the Fear & Greed Index suggests growing optimism, with historical patterns indicating potential for further price gains.

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to consolidate higher above $100,000 after the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped to its 30-year average of 20, down from a peak of 60 earlier in 2025. This decline follows a US-China trade deal on May 12, which introduced a 90-day tariff pause and a 115% reduction on both sides.

CBOE Volatility Index chart. Source: X.com

The agreement has fueled a “risk-on” sentiment, boosting Bitcoin and equities as investors lean into higher-risk assets, according to Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson. The analyst said, 

“$VIX dropped substantially yesterday on news of a potential China trade deal. It is now at ‘normal’ levels. This will be a ‘risk on’ environment for the foreseeable future.”

Adding to the bullish sentiment, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate dropped to 2.3% year-over-year in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, down from 2.4% in March and below consensus forecasts of 2.4%. This softer-than-expected CPI reading signals easing inflationary pressure, potentially increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025, assuming other economic indicators align.

With respect to the current macroeconomic dynamics—lower volatility, cooling inflation, and a trade war truce- it creates favorable market conditions for Bitcoin.

Earlier this month, Peterson noted that BTC could reach $135,000 within 100 days, citing a drop in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) from 55 to 25, signaling a “risk-on” environment. With 95% accuracy, his model links low VIX levels to increased investor confidence in riskier assets like Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin shrugs off US CPI win as Binance CEO says BTC ‘leading pack’

Bitcoin bull score index reaches yearly high

After posting one of its least bullish phases in two years during April, Bitcoin sentiment flipped drastically to its highest reading in 2025. Data from CryptoQuant indicated a dramatic rise in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index, soaring from 20 to 80, a level historically associated with significant price surges.

Bitcoin: bull score index. Source: CryptoQuant

This shift, driven by rising spot demand outpacing supply, reflects patterns observed after the April 2024 halving, suggesting Bitcoin could be poised for further gains.

Likewise, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr noted that while the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is climbing, currently at 53.3%, it remains below the “overloaded” zone above 80%. The analyst discussed the possibility of a market “upswing,” expressing hope for a successful test and surpassing Bitcoin’s all-time high near $110,000.

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index. Source: X.com

Related: Bitcoin profit taking at $106K the first stop before new all-time BTC price highs

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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