Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.
Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.
Bitcoin whales eat as markets retreat
Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops.
According to recent data from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves during the current cycle. Both waves were followed by strong reaccumulation, which helped absorb sell-side pressure and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long-term Bitcoin holders are in the new accumulation period. Since mid-February, this cohort’s wealth increased sharply by almost 363,000 BTC.
Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode
Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long-term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 such addresses, according to BitInfoCharts, and their recent activity points to ongoing accumulation.
Glassnode data shows that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) in early April, indicating intense buying over a 15-day period. The score has since eased to ~0.65 but still reflects consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be buying from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2.
This divergence signals growing distribution from retail to large holders and marks potential for future price support (whales tend to hold long-time). Oftentimes, it also precedes bullish periods.
The last time mega-whales hit a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC raced to $108,000.
BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode
Short-term holders are heavily impacted by market sentiment
Short-term holders, usually defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They’re more prone to selling during corrections or periods of uncertainty.
This behavior also follows a pattern. Glassnode data shows that spending levels tend to rise and fall approximately every 8 to 12 months.
Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite the turbulent macro environment. This suggests that so far, many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if the Bitcoin price drops further, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.
BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode
Markets are driven by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. This is why we often see familiar patterns: bubbles inflate as greed takes hold, then collapse under the weight of panic selling.
CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index illustrates this rhythm well. This metric, based on several market indicators, typically cycles every 3 to 5 months, swinging from neutral to either greed or fear.
Since February, market sentiment has remained in the fear and extreme fear territory, now worsened by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the collapse in global stock market prices. However, human psychology is cyclical, and the market might see a potential return to a “neutral” sentiment within the next 1-3 months.
Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: CoinMarketCap
Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of market cycles is how they can become self-fulfilling. When enough people believe in a pattern, they start acting on it, taking profits at expected peaks and buying dips at expected bottoms. This collective behavior reinforces the cycle and adds to its persistence.
Bitcoin is a prime example. Its cycles may not run on precise schedules, but they rhyme consistently enough to shape expectations — and, in turn, influence reality.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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