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US Dollar Index (DXY) falls close to level that was followed by 500%+ Bitcoin price rallies

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The Dollar Index (DXY) dipping below 100 has historically aligned with Bitcoin (BTC) bull runs, delivering gains of over 500% during the last two instances. Now, as trade tensions escalate and US Treasurys face sell-offs, some analysts believe China may be actively working to weaken the US dollar. This added pressure on the dollar heightens the likelihood that it could once again serve as a catalyst for another major Bitcoin rally. 

Is China working to weaken the US dollar?

According to an April 9 Reuters report, China’s central bank has instructed state-owned lenders to “reduce dollar purchases” as the yuan faces significant downward pressure. Large banks were reportedly “told to step up checks when executing dollar purchase orders for their clients,” signaling an effort to “curb speculative trades.”

Some analysts have speculated whether China might be attempting to weaken the dollar in response to recent US import tariff increases. However, Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, holds a different view.

Source: X/Jim Bianco

Bianco doubts that China is selling US Treasurys with the intent of harming the US economy. He points out that the DXY has remained steady around the 102 level. While China could sell bonds without converting the proceeds into other currencies—thereby impacting the bond market without destabilizing the dollar—this approach seems counterproductive. According to Bianco, it is unlikely that China is a significant seller of Treasurys, if it is selling them at all.

US Dollar Index (DXY). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

The DXY Index remains close to the 104 level seen on March 9 and has consistently stayed within the 100-110 range since November 2022. Therefore, claims that its current level reflects widespread distrust in the US dollar or signals an imminent collapse seem unfounded. In reality, stock market performance is not an accurate measure of investors’ risk perception regarding the economy. 

DXY below 100 is usually followed by Bitcoin bull runs

The last time the DXY Index fell below 100 was in June 2020, a period that coincided with a Bitcoin bull run. During those nine months, Bitcoin surged from $9,450 to $57,490. Similarly, when DXY dropped below 100 in mid-April 2017, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed from $1,200 to $17,610 within eight months. Whether coincidental or not, the 100 level has historically aligned with significant Bitcoin price gains.

A weakening DXY indicates that the US dollar has lost value against a basket of major currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc, British pound, and Japanese yen. This decline impacts US-based companies by reducing the amount of dollars they earn from foreign revenues, which in turn lowers tax contributions to the US government. This issue is particularly critical given that the US is running an annual deficit exceeding $1.8 trillion.

Similarly, US imports for individuals and businesses become more expensive in dollar terms when the currency weakens, even if prices remain unchanged in foreign currencies. Despite being the world’s largest economy, the US imports $160 billion in oil, $215 billion in passenger vehicles, and $255 billion in computers, smartphones, data servers, and similar products annually.

Related: China’s tariff response may mean more capital flight to crypto: Hayes

A weaker US dollar has a dual negative impact on the economy. It tends to slow consumption as imports become more expensive, and it simultaneously reduces tax revenues from the international earnings of US-based companies. For example, more than 49% of revenues for major corporations like Microsoft, Apple, Tesla, Visa, and Meta come from outside the US. Similarly, companies such as Google and Nvidia derive an estimated 35% or more of their revenues internationally.

Bitcoin’s price could potentially reclaim the $82,000 level regardless of movements in the DXY Index. This could happen as investors grow concerned about potential liquidity injections from the US Federal Reserve to stave off an economic recession. However, if the DXY Index falls below 100, investors may find stronger incentives to turn to alternative hedge instruments like Bitcoin.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coin Market

VanEck to launch its first RWA tokenization fund

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Investment firm VanEck is launching a tokenized real-world asset (RWA) fund that offers exposure to US Treasury bills, developed in partnership with tokenization platform Securitize. The initiative places VanEck among a growing number of traditional finance firms entering the RWA tokenization space.

The fund, called VBILL, will be initially available on Avalanche, BNB Chain, Ethereum and Solana blockchains, VanEck said in a May 13 statement. The fund’s minimum subscriptions start at $100,000 for investments running on Avalanche, BNB Chain, and Solana, while the minimum subscription on Ethereum is $1 million.

VanEck joins a burgeoning field of traditional financial firms that have launched RWA tokenized funds, with competitors including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. In January, Apollo, an investment firm with $751 billion in assets under management, also launched a private credit tokenized fund.

With a market capitalization of $6.9 billion, US Treasurys are among the largest asset classes in tokenized funds, second only to private credit, according to data from RWA.xyz.

VanEck’s partner, Securitize, has tokenized over $3.9 billion in assets. In May 2024, it raised $47 million in a strategic funding round led by BlackRock.

US Treasury tokenized market over time. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenization of real-world assets has many benefits that outpace traditional finance systems, including faster settlement times and liquidity to previously illiquid assets, advocates say.

Related: ‘Everything is lining up’ — Tokenization is having its breakout moment

SEC Chair Atkins on RWA tokenization

At the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) roundtable on May 12, Chair Paul Atkins compared the moving of securities onchain to the transition of songs from analog to digital. 

“Just as the shift to digital audio revolutionized the music industry, the migration to onchain securities has the potential to remodel aspects of the securities market by enabling entirely new methods of issuing, trading, owning, and using securities,” Atkins said.

“Blockchain technology holds the promise to allow for a broad swath of novel use cases for securities, fostering new kinds of market activities that many of the Commission’s legacy rules and regulations do not contemplate today,” he added.

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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Bitcoin shrugs off US CPI win as Binance CEO says BTC 'leading pack'

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Key points:

Bitcoin fails to capitalize on lower-than-expected US CPI data, seeing a Wall Street sell-off for a second day.

Traders see BTC/USD buying time before its next move, and a trip below $100,000 is on the cards.

Bitcoin is showing “undeniable” momentum against gold and stocks, Binance’s Richard Teng says.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a repeat sell-off at the May 13 Wall Street open as bears ignored positive US inflation data.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price stagnates after CPI inflation cools

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD again heading lower after failing to reclaim $104,000 as support.

The downside came despite the April print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in below expectations in what should be good news for risk assets.

“The all items index rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending March,” an official release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed. 

“The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021.”US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

US stocks opened higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the S&P 500 had now delivered net upside year-to-date.

“The S&P 500 has technically entered a new bull market, up 20% since April. We are seeing historic moves to both directions in both stocks and commodities,” it wrote in part of a thread on X.

S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD meanwhile surfed nearby order book liquidity around spot price. For popular trader Daan Crypto Trades, the stage was now being set for fresh volatility.

“That’s all the big clusters above and below taken out now. Good liquidity grab on both sides,” he summarized alongside data from monitoring resource CoinGlass. 

“From here on out we’ll just have to wait and see as the market ranges a bit and figures out what it wants to do. No massive liquidity levels nearby so spot will have to be leading.”BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The day prior, Daan Crypto Trades had forecast a retest of $102,000 based on liquidity clusters, a move which subsequently played out.

“Bitcoin is stalling here for a little bit, which is completely fine,” crypto analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe continued

“Even if it goes back to $97.5-98K, we’ll still be in an uptrend and building up for new ATHs.”BTC/USDT 6-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Teng: Bitcoin momentum “undeniable”

Assessing the ongoing macro implications for BTC price action, trading firm QCP Capital considered the chances of the market trending sideways in the short term.

Related: Bitcoin illiquid supply hits 14M BTC as hodlers set bull market record

“BTC remains caught in a tug-of-war between its identity as ‘digital gold’ and its function as a risk-on proxy. This tension continues to obscure its directional conviction,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on the day. 

“As the macro narrative moves from protectionism toward renewed trade optimism, BTC could remain range-bound.”

Others remained strong in their conviction over the general market trajectory, including Richard Teng, CEO of crypto exchange Binance.

“While traditional markets recover, Bitcoin’s already leading the pack,” he told X followers while comparing returns since the April 2 “Liberation Day” enacted by US President Donald Trump as he unveiled reciprocal trade tariffs. 

“With double-digit gains following key global events, BTC is reinforcing its position as a resilient alternative asset—outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq year-to-date. The momentum is undeniable.”Macro asset comparison. Source: Richard Teng/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

How to use tsUSDe on TON for yield-generating dollar savings

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Looking for a way to earn passive income on your crypto without riding the rollercoaster of volatile coins? TsUSDe (the staked version) on The Open Network (TON) might be the answer. It’s a dollar-pegged stablecoin that earns yield by design, and you can boost those earnings even more by putting it to work on platforms like STON.fi and DeDust.

Here’s how it works and how to get started in just a few steps.

What is tsUSDe, and why use it?

TsUSDe is a US dollar-backed stablecoin on the TON blockchain. It’s designed to earn a base yield of around 10% APY, paid out in Toncoin (TON). That means just holding it in your wallet earns you rewards — no extra steps needed.

But if you want to go a step further, you can use tsUSDe in liquidity pools or farms on TON-based platforms to unlock even more yield. It’s like putting your dollars to work while still staying in stable territory.

Where to earn yield with tsUSDe

Right now, two of the most active platforms for tsUSDe yield farming on TON are:

STON.fi — known for smooth UX and deep liquidity

DeDust — fast, lightweight and gaining traction fast.

Both let you pair tsUSDe with TON and stake your position to earn trading fees plus additional farming rewards.

Did you know? STON.fi has a built-in impermanent loss calculator to help you gauge risk before adding liquidity, while DeDust offers a full portfolio dashboard to track tokens, LPs and rewards in one place.

Step-by-step: How to earn yield with tsUSDe

1. Connect your wallet

Go to STON.fi or DeDust.io, connect your TON wallet, and make sure you have some TON in your balance to cover transaction fees.

2. Pick a tsUSDe liquidity pool

Head to the “Pools” or “Farms” section and find a tsUSDe/TON pool. You’ll see estimated APY numbers, which vary depending on trading volume and incentives. On STON.fi, for example, this pool sometimes hits 30%+ APY.

3. Add liquidity

Click “Add Liquidity,” then enter the amount of tsUSDe you want to supply. You’ll also need to supply the same dollar value in TON. Once confirmed, you’ll get LP (liquidity provider) tokens showing your share of the pool.

4. Stake to boost rewards

Now, stake those LP tokens to earn extra farming rewards. On STON.fi, look for the “Farm” button next to your position. On DeDust, use the “Boost” feature. Once staked, you’ll start earning even more TON on top of trading fees.

5. Monitor and claim rewards

You can check your rewards anytime and claim them whenever you want. You’re in full control; you can unstake or remove your liquidity whenever it suits you.

What are the benefits of passive income with tsUSDe?

Passive income with tsUSDe comes with unique advantages for users, including:

Dollar stability: tsUSDe aims to stay pegged to $1, so your base savings aren’t volatile.

Built-in APY: tsUSDe earns ~10% just sitting in your wallet.

Extra rewards: Farming lets you boost returns even more through TON incentives.

Non-custodial: You keep control of your assets the whole time.

What about the risks of TON stablecoin yield?

Earning yield with TON stablecoins comes with certain risks to be aware of, such as:

Impermanent loss: If TON’s price changes significantly, your share of the pool may shift, reducing your value when you withdraw.

Smart contract risk: As with any DeFi platform, there’s always a risk of bugs or exploits.

Stablecoin peg risk: tsUSDe is designed to stay at $1, but extreme situations could cause a temporary depeg.

Stick with well-known platforms and don’t invest more than you’re comfortable with.

Did you know? TON supports TON Proxy, a decentralized anonymity protocol inspired by networks like Tor and I2P. TON Proxy allows users and nodes to obfuscate their identities and traffic.

Earn APY with tsUSDe, but carefully

If you’re already holding tsUSDe, putting it to work on TON is a no-brainer. You get a solid base yield, plus a chance to earn more through farming — all while keeping your savings in dollars. Whether you go with STON.fi or DeDust, the setup is quick, and the returns can add up fast.

Start small, be aware of risks, monitor your rewards, and make your stablecoins work harder.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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