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Bitcoin price at risk of new 5-month low near $71K if tariff war and stock market tumult continues

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Bitcoin (BTC) price made a swift move to $78,300 at the April 9 Wall Street open as “herd-like” price action in equities markets continued to spook risk-asset traders.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin gyrates as stocks make history

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD retargeting five-month lows under $75,000 before rebounding leading into the NY trading session.

A deepening US-China trade war kept stocks on their toes, having cost Bitcoin the $80,000 mark the day prior.

Highly unusual market behavior had accompanied US tariff announcements, and China’s response with reciprocal tariffs saw the S&P 500 smash records with its roundtrip from lows to highs and back.

“On a point basis, the S&P 500 just posted its largest intraday reversal in history, even larger than 2020, 2008 and 2001,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter confirmed in ongoing market coverage on X. 

“You have just witnessed history.”

S&P 500 chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi drew attention to volatility kicking in from the smallest of triggers, with markets particularly sensitive to statements from US President Donald Trump.

“The problem with markets right now: Both bulls AND bears feel ‘uncomfortable’ in these market conditions,” it explained on the day.

“Why? Because stocks can swing $5+ trillion in market cap on the basis of a single post from a single person: President Trump. This is why we are seeing ‘herd-like’ price action, where large daily gains turn into large daily losses, and vice-versa.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Crypto was no exception to the tug-of-war, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropping to its lowest levels since early March.

For Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, the status quo was unlikely to improve in the short term.

“Part of me wants to sit on my hands and wait for this shit storm to pass,” he told X followers while examining order book conditions for Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

“Because I don’t think it is going to pass quickly, I’m not too eager to buy, even though some of these assets are on sale at great prices. That said, the fact that bids are piling in on some assets makes them very enticing.”

Related: Black Monday 2.0? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

CME “gap” creates BTC price resistance above $82,000

Focusing on BTC price action, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital revealed a new nearby resistance level in the form of a recent “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures.

“On the CME Futures Bitcoin chart, price broke down from its sideways range (black-black),” he wrote alongside a chart showing the gap between $82,000 and $85,000.

“In confirming the breakdown from the range via a bearish retest, Bitcoin filled the CME Gap (red circle) in the process. That CME Gap is now a resistance.”

CME Bitcoin futures 1-week chart with gap highlighted. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Further analysis gave a new BTC price range with $71,000 as its lower boundary based on previous trading volumes.

“Bitcoin is experiencing downside continuation after upside wicking into the early March Weekly lows (red),” Rekt Capital summarized.

“Having confirmed this red level as new resistance, BTC is now dropping into the $71,000-$83,000 Volume Gap to fill this market inefficiency.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart with volume data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As Cointelegraph reported, Rekt Capital is among those seeing a potential long-term reversal point at $70,000 or marginally lower.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Dogecoin active addresses surge by 528% — Will DOGE price follow?

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Key Takeaways:

Dogecoin’s active addresses surged 528% to 469,477.

DOGE’s futures open interest rose 70% to $1.65 billion, indicating strong speculative interest.

On May 13, Dogecoin (DOGE) witnessed a staggering 528% increase in active addresses, soaring from 74,640 to 469,477, signaling robust network activity and growing investor interest. This surge followed an update to 21Shares’ filing for a spot Dogecoin ETF, receiving acknowledgement from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The financial services firm confirmed the development on X on May 14.

Dogecoin active addresses. Source: Glassnode

The filing, which aims to track DOGE’s price, aligns with similar efforts by Bitwise and Grayscale, hinting at potential mainstream adoption. This news fueled market optimism, leading to a rise in the memecoin’s network activity. 

Adding to the momentum, Glassnode reported that DOGE futures open interest rose 70% over the past week, climbing from $989 million to $1.65 billion, despite a price pullback from recent highs. This decoupling of open interest and price suggests persistent speculative positioning, a trend Glassnode noted as “worth monitoring” for potential volatility.

Dogecoin futures open interest. Source: Glassnode

DOGE has also seen strong spot-buyer demand, and Cointelegraph reported that DOGE’s spot taker 90-day cumulative volume delta (CVD) is currently “taker buyer dominant,” reflecting more aggressive buying than selling since early March.

This pattern preceded a 385% rally to $0.48 in Q4 2024. Additionally, the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) for DOGE holders (holding at least 155 days) recently surpassed 0.5, indicating an optimistic “belief” sentiment.

With the network’s activity booming, speculative interest rising, and spot buyers dominating, Dogecoin’s market dynamics are setting the stage for a potential price run to its range highs.

Related: Price predictions 5/14: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, SUI, LINK, AVAX

Dogecoin price targets $0.40

Crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade noted that DOGE has hit a key resistance level around $0.24, with a brief consolidation expected over the next few days. A breakout above this resistance could propel DOGE to $0.40, signaling healthy upward momentum. 

Dogecoin analysis by Trader Tardigrade. Source: X.com

Meanwhile, Dogecoin proponent Kriss Pax highlighted an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the 1-day chart, suggesting a potential surge to $0.42 with the pattern reflecting a bullish breakout. The trader said, 

“Stuck between $0.22 and $0.25. Opportunities for buying dips will come. Some will swing trade. But when $DOGE decides to take off, you will want to be on board.”

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim for new all-time highs by next week as capital inflows soar

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ethereum Foundation unveils security initiative to supplant legacy systems

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The Ethereum Foundation has launched a security initiative aimed at supporting the broader adoption of onchain technologies, according to a May 14 announcement. The effort is part of an ongoing push to strengthen Ethereum’s role in programmable digital assets.

Fredrik Svantes, a protocol security research lead, and Josh Stark from the Ethereum Foundation management team will be the initial co-chairs of the initiative. Three contributors to the Ethereum ecosystem — samczsun, Medhi Zerouali, and Zach Obront — will help guide the project.

Called the Trillion Dollar Security Initiative, the effort seeks to analyze, improve, and communicate to Ethereum developers areas where security can be improved, including user experience, wallet security, smart contract security and infrastructure.

According to DefiLlama, Ethereum still is the leading ecosystem for decentralized finance (DeFi), having held between 50-60% of the total value locked across all blockchains since May 2022. The network’s TVL stands at nearly $80 billion as of May 14.

Blockchains by total-value-locked. Source: DefiLlama

“Achieving Trillion Dollar Security is only possible with the support of the broad Ethereum ecosystem,” the Foundation said in a statement. “Billions of individuals are each comfortable storing more than $1,000 onchain, collectively amounting to trillions of dollars secured on Ethereum,” it added.

Related: Vitalik Buterin outlines vision as Ethereum ecosystem addresses hit new high

Ethereum rebounds with Pectra upgrade

Ethereum’s struggles during this bull market have been well-documented. It has suffered from low traffic and a lack of attention-grabbing use cases, and its layer-2 chains that make Ethereum faster have been plagued by bad UX. But then came the Pectra upgrade.

Pectra, Ethereum’s most significant upgrade since The Merge, has delivered three key improvements, including external accounts as smart contracts, increased staking limits and data blobs per block.

Ethereum’s native token (ETH) price has risen significantly since the upgrade, jumping over 43% since May 7.

Magazine: Comeback 2025 — Is Ethereum poised to catch up with Bitcoin and Solana?

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3 reasons why Ethereum price could rally to $5,000 in 2025

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Key takeaways:

A longer-term ETH price rally is dependent on SEC approval of in-kind ETF creation and staking to attract more investors.

AI adoption and Ethereum layer-2 growth must drive onchain activity to restore the network’s deflationary burn mechanism.

Ether (ETH) surged 43.6% between May 7 and May 14, but its current price of $2,600 still falls short of the 2021 peak of $4,868. Some analysts argue that the current bullish momentum is “just the beginning of a much larger and aggressive uptrend,” raising the likelihood of a near-term rally to $5,000.

However, the catalysts for a new ETH all-time high in 2025 remain uncertain, particularly in the face of intensifying competition.

Source: X/AdrianoFeria

According to X user AdrianoFeria, ETH is “the best candidate for institutional diversification” since professional fund managers appreciate “similar levels of regulatory clarity and accessibility” through multiple spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although recent data hasn’t been especially encouraging. 

Ether remains the sole alternative to spot Bitcoin ETFs

Between May 12 and May 13, US-listed Ether ETFs saw net outflows of $4 million. The size of the Ether ETF market is 92% smaller than Bitcoin’s $121.5 billion, highlighting a clear lack of institutional appetite for ETH-based products. This has led some traders to question whether Ether can truly gain traction among professional investors.

ETH/USDT vs. competitors XRP, TRX, BNB, ADA. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

While competing cryptocurrencies have outperformed ETH in 2025, their chances of being included in US state-level digital asset reserves have plummeted. This follows President Trump’s decision on March 2 to distance himself from lobbyists supporting XRP, SOL, and ADA. The “Digital Asset Stockpile” executive order issued on March 6 was notably more cautious, drawing a clear line between Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins.

Ether’s best-case scenario may involve a lack of direct ETF competition, which would depend on the US Securities and Exchange Commission rejecting several pending applications. Analysts also suggest that Ether ETFs could gain momentum from in-kind creation and staking approvals—developments considered highly likely before year-end, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart.

‘Pectra’ upgrade improved scalability, setting the stage for AI adoption

Previously hailed as the answer to Ether’s monetary policy, the built-in burn mechanism introduced in 2021 was designed to reduce supply growth based on network demand. However, the shift in focus toward scalability through rollups has largely offset its deflationary impact. As a result, a significant increase in onchain activity is now required for Ether to become deflationary once more.

Ethereum rollups ranked by 30-day transactions. Source: L2Beat

The recent ‘Pectra’ upgrade has improved data transmission efficiency, setting the stage for enhanced scalability. Layer-2 network activity rose 23% compared to the previous month, with the Base network taking the lead at 244.2 million transactions in 30 days, according to L2beat. If this momentum holds, it could generate sustained demand for ETH and help further differentiate Ethereum from rival platforms.

Related: Ethereum retakes 10% market share, but ETH bulls shouldn’t celebrate yet

Source: X/econoar

The path to a $5,000 ETH price remains uncertain, but artificial intelligence may serve as a powerful catalyst. Ethereum advocate Eric Conner observed that ChatGPT prefers Ethereum’s layer-2 infrastructure for managing funds via multisignature contracts, allowing autonomous agents to pay merchants, settle balances, and allocate surplus into decentralized finance applications.

Although it is difficult to predict whether the AI-driven trend will fully develop, the potential for smart contract activity to increase tenfold from current levels is within reach. This growth could make a new all-time high for ETH in 2025 achievable, especially if institutional interest accelerates following long-awaited regulatory changes.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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