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Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as ‘decoupling’ and ‘gold leads BTC’ trend takes shape

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Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.

Source: Cory Bates / X

The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting

Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.

While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.

BTC/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingView

The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,” taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.

Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.

BTC/USD vs. XAU/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,” said market analyst MacroScope, adding:

“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.

The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.

Source: Mike Alfred / X

Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap

Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.

The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.

BTC/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.

In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.

Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.

BTC/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingView

Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.

A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.

US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook

From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.

Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.

Related: Bitcoin ‘decouples,’ stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of ‘higher inflation’

Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.

Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.

Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Court grants 60-day pause of SEC, Ripple appeals case

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An appellate court has granted a joint request from Ripple Labs and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pause an appeal in a 2020 SEC case against Ripple amid settlement negotiations.

In an April 16 filing in the US Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, the court approved a joint SEC-Ripple motion to hold the appeal in abeyance — temporarily pausing the case — for 60 days. As part of the order, the SEC is expected to file a status report by June 15.

April 16 order approving a motion to hold an appeal in abeyance. Source: PACER

The SEC’s case against Ripple and its executives, filed in December 2020, was expected to begin winding down after Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse announced on March 19 that the commission would be dropping its appeal against the blockchain firm. A federal court found Ripple liable for $125 million in an August ruling, resulting in both the SEC and blockchain firm filing an appeal and cross-appeal, respectively.

However, once US President Donald Trump took office and leadership of the SEC moved from former chair Gary Gensler to acting chair Mark Uyeda, the commission began dropping multiple enforcement cases against crypto firms in a seeming political shift. Ripple pledged $5 million in XRP to Trump’s inauguration fund, and Garlinghouse and chief legal officer Stuart Alderoty attended events supporting the US president.

Related: SEC dropping Ripple case is ‘final exclamation mark’ that XRP is not a security — John Deaton

Despite support for the end of the case coming from both Ripple and the SEC, the August 2024 judgment and appellate cases leave some legal entanglements. Alderoty said in March that Ripple would drop its cross-appeal with the SEC and receive a roughly $75 million refund from the lower court judgment. It’s unclear what else may result from negotiations over a settlement in appellate court.

New leadership at SEC incoming

Acting chair Uyeda is expected to step down following the US Senate confirming Paul Atkins as SEC chair on April 9.

During his confirmation hearings, lawmakers questioned Atkins about his ties to crypto, which could create conflicts of interest in his role regulating the industry. In financial disclosures, Atkins stated he had millions of dollars in assets through stakes in crypto firms, including Securitize, Pontoro and Patomak.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Bitwise lists four crypto ETPs on London stock exchange

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Asset manager Bitwise has listed four Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded products on the London Stock Exchange, expanding its presence in the European region.

The listings include the Bitwise Core Bitcoin ETP, the Bitwise Physical Bitcoin ETP, Bitwise’s Physical Ethereum ETP, and the Bitwise Ethereum Staking ETP, according to the April 16 announcement.

The products are available to institutional or otherwise-qualified investors with an accreditation, and not open to retail investors.

Bitwise is applying to launch crypto investment vehicles as digital assets gain a greater foothold in global financial markets, attracting more institutional interest in crypto and increasing the legitimacy of the nascent asset class.

Related: Bitwise doubles down on $200K Bitcoin price prediction amid trade tension

Bitwise expands ETF offerings following a regulatory shift in the US

The resignation of former Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler triggered a wave of crypto ETF applications in the United States.

Asset managers and crypto firms rushed to submit filings in anticipation of a relaxed regulatory regime once Gensler left the agency in January.

Bitwise’s BTC and ETH ETF, which gives investors exposure to both digital assets in a single investment vehicle, was granted preliminary approval by the SEC in January but still requires final approval before listing.

In March 2025, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) submitted an application for a rule change to list the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF on the US-based exchange.

If approved, Dogecoin (DOGE) would be the first memecoin with a US-listed investment vehicle and could attract more institutional inflows into the dog-themed social token.

Bitwise also filed for an Aptos ETF in March. The proposed Bitwise Aptos ETF will hold the native cryptocurrency of the high-throughput layer-1 blockchain, APT (APT), and will not feature staking rewards.

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan predicted Bitcoin ETFs would attract $50 billion in inflows during 2025.

Institutional inflows into crypto ETFs act as a price stabilizer for digital assets with investment vehicles, lowering volatility through a pipeline siphoning capital from traditional investors in the stock market to cryptocurrencies.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs make Coinbase a ‘honeypot’ for hackers and governments: Trezor CEO

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Securitize manages $38B with acquisition of MG Stover admin business

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Tokenization company Securitize has expanded its digital asset operations by acquiring MG Stover’s fund administration business, in a move the company said has significantly grown its assets under management and ability to serve institutional clients.

With the acquisition, MG Stover’s fund administration business has been absorbed into Securitize Fund Services, Securitize’s wholly owned subsidiary, the company disclosed

Securitize Fund Services now manages more than $38 billion in assets across 715 funds. 

Founded in 2007, MG Stover offers full-service fund administration spanning traditional financial industries like hedge funds, venture capital and private equity, as well as digital asset funds. 

A Securitize spokesperson informed Cointelegraph that the acquisition pertains only to MG Stover’s fund administration business and not the company as a whole.

In an emailed statement to Cointelegraph, Securitize co-founder and CEO Carlos Domingo said, “The MG Stover acquisition significantly strengthens our institutional offering by adding one of the most experienced digital asset fund administration teams in the industry to Securitize Fund Services.” He continued:

“Legacy fund administrators were never designed for the speed, complexity, or global reach of digital assets. Their systems struggle with the pressure of 24/7 markets, and they weren’t built to handle stablecoin flows or real-time settlements.”

Securitize is one of the largest real-world asset (RWA) tokenization companies, having issued more than $3.3 billion in onchain assets, most notably the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund, also known as BUIDL.

BUILD currently has nearly $2.5 billion in assets, according to industry data. 

BUIDL leads the booming market for tokenized US Treasurys. Source: RWA.xyz

Related: VC Roundup: 8-figure funding deals suggest crypto bull market far from over

Tokenization market heats up

Tokenized RWAs are a rapidly expanding segment of the blockchain industry, attracting both traditional investors and crypto-native users. 

RWA growth has defied the broad downtrend in the cryptocurrency market, with the total value of onchain financial assets surging 11.2% to $21 billion over the past 30 days, according to RWA.xyz.

Amid the tokenization wave, Securitize recently partnered with Ethena Labs to create a new blockchain for the RWA economy. The forthcoming Converge blockchain will allow retail and institutional investors to access tokenized assets and decentralized finance applications. 

Meanwhile, the Mantra blockchain recently unveiled a $109 million ecosystem fund to bootstrap startups building across the RWA and DeFi economies. 

Related: Bitwise makes first institutional DeFi allocation

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