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10-year Treasury yield falls to 4% as DXY softens — Is it time to buy the Bitcoin price dip?

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On April 3, yields on long-term US government debt fell to their lowest levels in six months as investors reacted to growing concerns over the global trade war and the weakening of the US dollar. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly touched 4.0%, down from 4.4% a week earlier, signaling strong demand from buyers.

US 10-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

At first glance, a higher risk of economic recession may seem negative for Bitcoin (BTC). However, lower returns from fixed-income investments encourage allocations to alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies. Over time, traders are likely to reduce exposure to bonds, particularly if inflation rises. As a result, the path to a Bitcoin all-time high in 2025 remains plausible.

Tariffs create ‘supply shock’ in the US and impact inflation and fixed-income returns

One could argue that the recently announced US import tariffs negatively impact corporate profitability, forcing some companies to deleverage and, in turn, reducing market liquidity. Ultimately, any measure that increases risk aversion tends to have a short-term negative effect on Bitcoin, particularly given its strong correlation with the S&P 500 index.

Axel Merk, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Merk Investments, said that tariffs create a “supply shock,” meaning the reduced availability of goods and services due to rising prices causes an imbalance relative to demand. This effect is amplified if interest rates are declining, potentially paving the way for inflationary pressure.

Source: X/AxelMerk

Even if one does not view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, the appeal of fixed-income investments diminishes significantly in such a scenario. Moreover, if just 5% of the world’s $140 trillion bond market seeks higher returns elsewhere, it could translate into $7 trillion in potential inflows into stocks, commodities, real estate, gold, and Bitcoin.

Weaker US dollar amid gold all-time highs favors alternative assets

Gold surged to a $21 trillion market capitalization as it made consecutive all-time highs, and it still has the potential for significant price upside. Higher prices allow previously unprofitable mining operations to resume and it encourages further investment in exploration, extraction, and refining. As production expands, the supply growth will naturally act as a limiting factor on gold’s long-term bull run.

Regardless of trends in US interest rates, the US dollar has weakened against a basket of foreign currencies, as measured by the DXY Index. On April 3, the index dropped to 102, its lowest level in six months. A decline in confidence in the US dollar, even in relative terms, could encourage other nations to explore alternative stores of value, including Bitcoin.

US Dollar Index (DXY). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

This transition does not happen overnight, but the trade war could lead to a gradual shift away from the US dollar, particularly among countries that feel pressured by its dominant role. While no one expects a return to the gold standard or Bitcoin to become a major component of national reserves, any movement away from the dollar strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term upside potential and reinforces its position as an alternative asset.

Related: Trump ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs create chaos in markets, recession concerns

To put things in perspective, Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Singapore collectively hold $2.63 trillion in US Treasuries. If these regions choose to retaliate, bond yields could reverse their trend, increasing the cost of new debt issuance for the US government and further weakening the dollar. In such a scenario, investors would likely avoid adding exposure to stocks, ultimately favoring scarce alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Timing Bitcoin’s market bottom is nearly impossible, but the fact that the $82,000 support level held despite worsening global economic uncertainty is an encouraging sign of its resilience.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coin Market

Altcoins’ roaring returns and falling USDT stablecoin dominance suggest ‘altseason’ is here

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May 13, 2025

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Key Takeaways:

Declining Bitcoin dominance and rising strength in altcoins and memecoins could be a sign that it’s altseason.

USDT dominance could drop to 2022 lows, indicating an accelerating capital rotation into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

The cryptocurrency market shows signs that an altseason, a period where altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), could be on the horizon. Technical charts and market sentiment align to suggest that May 2025 might start a broader altcoin rally, driven by key indicators and shifting capital flows.

The TOTAL2 chart, representing the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies, excluding Bitcoin, has broken above a downtrend line in place since January 2025. This breakout is accompanied by a bullish break of structure (BOS) on the daily chart, forming higher-low patterns.

TOTAL2 chart 1-day. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A decisive move above the $1.25 trillion resistance level could support a decisive uptrend comprised of higher lows and higher highs. This shift signals capital rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins.

Similarly, the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart is signaling a potential market peak, having declined 4% over the past six days—the steepest drop since November 2024. A falling BTC.D typically indicates capital flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins, enabling altcoins to gain market share and drive collective price surges.

Michael Van Poppe, founder of MN Capital, highlighted this trend, noting a bearish divergence accompanied by declining volume. The analyst said,

“Strong bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe, indicating that the #Bitcoin dominance has peaked. The end of the bear market for #Altcoins.”Bitcoin dominance analysis by Michael Van Poppe. Source: X.com

Related: History rhymes? XRP price gained 400% the last time whale flows flipped

USDT dominance could dip to new lows

The tether (USDT) dominance chart has dropped to its lowest level since early February, at 4.59% on May 13. As illustrated below, the USDT.D chart may find support around 3.90%, as it exhibits a descending triangle pattern. A bearish breakout could lead to new lows since 2021, matching previous altseason levels.

USDT. Dominance 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

USDT dominance declines imply capital rotation occurs in other assets like Bitcoin and altcoins. Over the past seven days, Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have gained 44.3%, 20.6% and 22% respectively, compared to BTC’s 10% rise.

Complementing the recovery with a deeper analysis, crypto trader ZERO IKA observed that many altcoins have formed a higher time frame break of structure above their February and March highs.

The analyst noted that despite recent upside, most altcoins remain 70% to 90% below their all-time highs, indicating a “relatively early” opportunity for a recovery.

The weakening stablecoin and Bitcoin dominance, coupled with a rise in altcoin market cap, opens the door for an altseason, as long as the above key trends remain intact.

Related: Dogecoin traders predict 180% DOGE price rally if Bitcoin gains continue

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

VanEck to launch its first RWA tokenization fund

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1 hour ago

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May 13, 2025

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Investment firm VanEck is launching a tokenized real-world asset (RWA) fund that offers exposure to US Treasury bills, developed in partnership with tokenization platform Securitize. The initiative places VanEck among a growing number of traditional finance firms entering the RWA tokenization space.

The fund, called VBILL, will be initially available on Avalanche, BNB Chain, Ethereum and Solana blockchains, VanEck said in a May 13 statement. The fund’s minimum subscriptions start at $100,000 for investments running on Avalanche, BNB Chain, and Solana, while the minimum subscription on Ethereum is $1 million.

VanEck joins a burgeoning field of traditional financial firms that have launched RWA tokenized funds, with competitors including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton. In January, Apollo, an investment firm with $751 billion in assets under management, also launched a private credit tokenized fund.

With a market capitalization of $6.9 billion, US Treasurys are among the largest asset classes in tokenized funds, second only to private credit, according to data from RWA.xyz.

VanEck’s partner, Securitize, has tokenized over $3.9 billion in assets. In May 2024, it raised $47 million in a strategic funding round led by BlackRock.

US Treasury tokenized market over time. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenization of real-world assets has many benefits that outpace traditional finance systems, including faster settlement times and liquidity to previously illiquid assets, advocates say.

Related: ‘Everything is lining up’ — Tokenization is having its breakout moment

SEC Chair Atkins on RWA tokenization

At the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) roundtable on May 12, Chair Paul Atkins compared the moving of securities onchain to the transition of songs from analog to digital. 

“Just as the shift to digital audio revolutionized the music industry, the migration to onchain securities has the potential to remodel aspects of the securities market by enabling entirely new methods of issuing, trading, owning, and using securities,” Atkins said.

“Blockchain technology holds the promise to allow for a broad swath of novel use cases for securities, fostering new kinds of market activities that many of the Commission’s legacy rules and regulations do not contemplate today,” he added.

Magazine: Ethereum is destroying the competition in the $16.1T TradFi tokenization race

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Coin Market

Bitcoin shrugs off US CPI win as Binance CEO says BTC 'leading pack'

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2 hours ago

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May 13, 2025

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Key points:

Bitcoin fails to capitalize on lower-than-expected US CPI data, seeing a Wall Street sell-off for a second day.

Traders see BTC/USD buying time before its next move, and a trip below $100,000 is on the cards.

Bitcoin is showing “undeniable” momentum against gold and stocks, Binance’s Richard Teng says.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw a repeat sell-off at the May 13 Wall Street open as bears ignored positive US inflation data.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price stagnates after CPI inflation cools

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD again heading lower after failing to reclaim $104,000 as support.

The downside came despite the April print of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) coming in below expectations in what should be good news for risk assets.

“The all items index rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending March,” an official release from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirmed. 

“The April change was the smallest 12-month increase in the all items index since February 2021.”US CPI 12-month % change. Source: BLS

US stocks opened higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that the S&P 500 had now delivered net upside year-to-date.

“The S&P 500 has technically entered a new bull market, up 20% since April. We are seeing historic moves to both directions in both stocks and commodities,” it wrote in part of a thread on X.

S&P 500 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC/USD meanwhile surfed nearby order book liquidity around spot price. For popular trader Daan Crypto Trades, the stage was now being set for fresh volatility.

“That’s all the big clusters above and below taken out now. Good liquidity grab on both sides,” he summarized alongside data from monitoring resource CoinGlass. 

“From here on out we’ll just have to wait and see as the market ranges a bit and figures out what it wants to do. No massive liquidity levels nearby so spot will have to be leading.”BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

The day prior, Daan Crypto Trades had forecast a retest of $102,000 based on liquidity clusters, a move which subsequently played out.

“Bitcoin is stalling here for a little bit, which is completely fine,” crypto analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe continued. 

“Even if it goes back to $97.5-98K, we’ll still be in an uptrend and building up for new ATHs.”BTC/USDT 6-hour chart with RSI data. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Teng: Bitcoin momentum “undeniable”

Assessing the ongoing macro implications for BTC price action, trading firm QCP Capital considered the chances of the market trending sideways in the short term.

Related: Bitcoin illiquid supply hits 14M BTC as hodlers set bull market record

“BTC remains caught in a tug-of-war between its identity as ‘digital gold’ and its function as a risk-on proxy. This tension continues to obscure its directional conviction,” it wrote in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers on the day. 

“As the macro narrative moves from protectionism toward renewed trade optimism, BTC could remain range-bound.”

Others remained strong in their conviction over the general market trajectory, including Richard Teng, CEO of crypto exchange Binance.

“While traditional markets recover, Bitcoin’s already leading the pack,” he told X followers while comparing returns since the April 2 “Liberation Day” enacted by US President Donald Trump as he unveiled reciprocal trade tariffs. 

“With double-digit gains following key global events, BTC is reinforcing its position as a resilient alternative asset—outperforming gold, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq year-to-date. The momentum is undeniable.”Macro asset comparison. Source: Richard Teng/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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