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Bitcoin can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

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Bitcoin may still rise to over $250,000 before the end of the year, with expectations of an increasing fiat supply remaining the significant catalyst for the world’s first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 2025 price rally may be boosted by the US Federal Reserve pivoting to quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed buys bonds and pumps money into the economy to lower interest rates and encourage spending during difficult financial conditions. 

“Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom.

Hayes wrote in an April 1 Substack post:

“If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then Bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.”

The Fed reduced the Treasury runoff cap to $5 billion per month from $25 billion effective April 1, while keeping mortgage-backed securities (MBS) runoff steady at $35 billion.

The Fed may allow the MBS roll off without replacement and the excess principal payment might be reinvested into Treasurys, according to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell published by Reuters.

“Mathematically, that keeps the Fed balance sheet constant; however, that is treasury QE. Bitcoin will scream higher once this is formally announced,” added Hayes.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Other analysts are eying a more conservative Bitcoin price top based on BTC’s correlation with the global liquidity index.

BTC projected to reach $132,000 based on M2 money supply growth. Source: Jamie Coutts

The growing money supply could push Bitcoin’s price above $132,000 before the end of 2025, according to estimates from Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision.

Related: Bitcoin ‘more likely’ to hit $110K before $76.5K — Arthur Hayes

Fed will “flood the market with dollars” 

Hayes has been “buying Bitcoin and shitcoins at all levels between $90,000 to $76,500,” showcasing his conviction in the crypto market for the rest of 2025. The pace of capital deployment will increase or decrease depending on the accuracy of his predictions.

“I still believe Bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars,” wrote Hayes, adding:

“That allows Xi Jinping to instruct the PBOC to stop tightening monetary conditions onshore to defend the dollar-yuan exchange rate, which increases the net quantity of yuan.”

Despite the optimistic prediction, many market participants are betting on a lower Bitcoin price top for the end of 2025.

Source: Polymarket

Only 9% of traders have placed bets on Bitcoin hitting $250,000, while 60% expect Bitcoin to hit $110,000 in 2025, according to Polymarket, the largest decentralized predictions market.

Still, Bitcoin and global risk appetite remain pressured by global tariff fears ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement, scheduled for April 2.

“Long-term positioning remains intact, but near-term momentum appears tethered to unfolding macro headlines,” Stella Zlatareva, dispatch editor at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

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Meta's Llama 4 puts US back in lead to ‘win the AI race’ – David Sacks

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The White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks says Meta’s release of its latest AI model, Llama 4, has pushed the United States into the lead in the global race for artificial intelligence dominance.

“For the US to win the AI race, we have to win in open source too, and Llama 4 puts us back in the lead,” Sacks said in an April 5 X post, as speculation continues to mount over the US and China competing for the top spot in the global AI race.

Sacks has been outspoken about the AI race since taking on his role following US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20. Just over a week into the job, Sacks said he is “confident in the US, but we can’t be complacent.”

Llama 4 “best in their class for multimodality,” says Meta

Sack’s latest comment came after Meta’s AI division said in an X post on the same day that it is introducing the fourth generation of its Llama models, Llama 4 Scout and Llama 4 Maverick.

Source: David Sacks

“Our most advanced models yet and the best in their class for multimodality,” Meta said.

Meta said its Llama 4 Scout model has 17 billion active parameters and uses 16 experts. 

The company claims it outperforms rival large language models — Gemma 3, Gemini 2.0 Flash-lite, and Mistral 3.1 — “across a broad range of widely accepted benchmarks.”

Meanwhile, Llama 4 Maverick also has 17 billion active parameters but is configured with 128 experts. Meta claimed the Maverick model can outperform GPT-4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash “across a broad range of widely accepted benchmarks.” 

Llama 4 Maverick instruction-tuned benchmarks. Source: Meta

It also said Maverick can perform similarly to DeepSeek v3 on “reasoning and coding tasks” despite using only half the active parameters.

Related: NFT marketplace X2Y2 shuts down after 3 years, pivots to AI

Less than a year ago, in July 2024, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that in 2025, he expects Llama models to become “the most advanced in the industry.” It has been just over two years since Meta first released the limited version of Llama 1 in February 2023.

At the time, Meta said it was “blown away” by the demand, receiving over 100,000 requests for access. 

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

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Traders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.

Kalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.

Odds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.

The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market.

Odds of US recession in 2025 top 60% on the Kalshi prediction market. Source: kalshi

Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks

Trump’s executive order throws markets in disarray

The US President’s executive order established a 10% baseline tariff rate for all countries and different “reciprocal” tariff rates on trading partners with existing tariffs on US import goods.

Trump’s announcement triggered an immediate stock market sell-off, wiping away over $5 trillion in shareholder value in a matter of days.

Fears of a recession continue to grow as market analysts warn of a potentially protracted trade war that negatively impacts global markets and suppresses risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.

Meanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the tariffs will strengthen the US economy long-term and correct any trade imbalances.

“The markets are going to boom,” the President said on April 3, describing the current market sell-off as an expected part of the process.

The stock market sell-off continues as stocks shed trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingView

Asset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump deliberately crashed markets to bring down interest rates.

Pompliano cited the reduction in 10-year US Treasury bonds as evidence that the President’s strategy of forcing a recession to impact rates is working.

Interest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined from approximately 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5. President Trump is also pressuring Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates.

“This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,” Trump wrote in an April 4 Truth Social post.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Solana TVL hits new high in SOL terms, DEX volumes show strength — Will SOL price react?

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Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) dropped by 9% between March 28 and April 4, but several key metrics grew during the same period. Despite SOL’s price downturn, the Solana network continues to outpace competitors, maintaining its second-place position in deposits and trading volume. Traders now wonder how long it will take for SOL’s price to reflect this onchain strength.

Solana outperforms rivals in TVL deposits and DEX volumes

Investor’s declining interest in SOL could be linked to the April 4 staking unlock of 1.79 million SOL, worth over $200 million. The selling pressure is clear, as these tokens were staked in April 2021, when SOL traded near $23. Another factor is the decline in interest for memecoins, which had been a major driver of new user adoption on Solana. With fewer speculative inflows, growth in activity may not translate to immediate price gains.

Several meme-themed cryptocurrencies, including WIF, PENGU, POPCAT, AI16Z, BOME, and ACT, saw declines of 20% or more over the past seven days. Yet, despite worsening market conditions, the Solana network outperformed some competitors. Its Total Value Locked (TVL) rose to the highest level since June 2022, while decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes showed notable resilience.

Solana Total Vale Locked (TVL), SOL. Source: DefiLlama

Deposits in Solana network’s DApps rose to 53.8 million SOL on April 2, marking a 14% increase from the previous month. In US dollar terms, the $6.5 billion total stands $780 million ahead of its closest competitor, BNB Chain. Solana’s top DApps by TVL include Jito (liquid staking), Jupiter (leading DEX), and Kamino (lending and liquidity platform).

Solana gains support for scalability, and Web3 focus despite MEV concerns

While not yet a direct threat to Ethereum’s $50 billion TVL, Solana’s onchain data shows greater resilience compared to BNB Chain, Tron, and Ethereum layer-2 networks like Base and Arbitrum. In decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, Solana holds a 24% market share, while BNB Chain accounts for 12% and Base captures 10%, according to data from DefiLlama.

DEX volumes monthly market share. Source: DefiLlama

While Ethereum has regained the lead in DEX volumes, Solana has shown strong resilience following the memecoin bubble burst. For context, Raydium’s weekly volumes dropped 95% from the $42.9 billion all-time high reached in mid-January. Still, Solana has demonstrated that traders appreciate its focus on base layer scalability and integrated Web3 user experience despite ongoing criticism related to maximum extractable value (MEV).

Source: X/Cbb0fe

In short, MEV occurs when validators reorder transactions for profit. This practice is not unique to Solana, but some market participants—such as user Cbb0fe, a self-proclaimed decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity provider—have raised concerns about insider gatekeeping. While not stated directly, the criticism likely refers to incentives provided by Solana Labs to offset the high investment and maintenance costs required by certain validators.

Supporters of changing Solana’s token emissions argue that rewards earned through MEV already provide sufficient incentives for validators to secure the network, eliminating the need for further inflationary pressure on SOL. Meanwhile, Loring Harkness, a core contributor to Shutter Network, advocates for encrypting transactions before they enter the mempool as a way to prevent validators from manipulating their order.

Solana’s growth in TVL and resilience in DEX market share may not be enough for SOL to retest the $200 level seen in mid-February. However, it has firmly secured its second-place position behind Ethereum as a leading platform for decentralized applications, supported by consistent activity, infrastructure development, and growing interest from both developers and users.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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