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Smart money concepts in crypto trading: How to track and profit

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Key takeaways

Smart money consists of institutional investors with advanced tools and knowledge that can influence crypto market trends.

Key concepts like order blocks, liquidity zones and fair value gaps can help traders align with smart money strategies.

Real-time tracking tools such as Glassnode, Nansen and CoinGecko allow traders to follow smart money’s moves and capitalize on them.

Following the movements of smart money is akin to navigating the open sea, using its wake to position yourself for success in the crypto market.

Smart money refers to the money being invested by individuals or organizations that know the markets inside and out. We’re talking about institutional investors, hedge funds and well-seasoned traders. These are the big players who have access to more information and tools than most of us, and they use that knowledge to make strategic decisions.

In the crypto world, “smart money” is especially powerful because the market is still growing and changing quickly. These investors have a massive impact on the market. Their moves can shake things up, push prices up or down and even shift the way people feel about a particular coin or token.

For example, when major players like BlackRock launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), it can send waves through the market, influencing Bitcoin’s (BTC) price and the broader market. 

How do institutional investors influence crypto market trends?

Institutional investors have substantial financial muscle, and when they enter the crypto market, they can make a big impact in several ways:

Liquidity and stability: These investors bring in large amounts of capital, which makes it easier to buy and sell without dramatically affecting prices. This helps stabilize the market and makes it more attractive for other investors to get involved. When more money is flowing in and out smoothly, it creates a healthier, more balanced market. 

Price movements and volatility: When these big players make large investments (or sell off their holdings), it can cause prices to move quickly, either up or down. While this can create volatility, it also opens the door for traders to take advantage of those price swings.

Regulation and legitimacy: As institutional investors get involved, they push for clearer regulations, which helps bring more legitimacy to the crypto space. For instance, the approval of Bitcoin ETFs has given institutional investors a regulated way to invest in Bitcoin, and that’s made the market more credible overall.

In short, smart money is invested by experienced, informed players who make strategic moves, while ordinary money is often invested by individuals without deep market knowledge or insight.

Smart money concepts (SMC) in crypto trading

SMC is a trading strategy focused on analyzing and capitalizing on the movements of smart money. The key elements of SMC include order blocks, liquidity zones and fair value gaps. Let’s break these down simply.

Order blocks (OB)

Order blocks are areas on the chart where big investors (the smart money) are making large buy or sell orders. These areas usually act like walls of support or resistance, meaning they are strong levels where prices tend to bounce back. You can spot order blocks by looking for clusters of high-volume candlesticks at certain price levels. These are often periods of sideways price movement followed by a sharp move up or down. 

When the price comes back to these areas, expect it to react in some way, as that’s where the smart money has been. 

Liquidity zones

Liquidity zones are collections of buy and sell orders at certain price points. These are like gathering spots where a lot of market participants are placing their orders, creating areas where price reversals or breakouts are likely to happen. 

Smart money investors love these zones because they can place large trades without drastically moving the market in one direction or the other. By understanding where liquidity zones are, you can predict where the market might go next.

Fair value gaps (FVG)

A fair value gap occurs when there’s a big imbalance between the buy and sell orders for an asset, creating a gap on the chart. This usually happens when the price moves quickly without much trading in between, and you can spot these gaps as spaces between candlesticks

These gaps act like magnets for the price. Markets often return to fill these gaps before continuing their trend. When you spot a gap, it could be a great opportunity to enter the market, knowing the price might come back to fill it before resuming its movement.

How to track smart money moves in real time

There are several tools that help decode blockchain data and spot smart money maneuvers instantly.

1. Glassnode

Category: On-chain analytics
Website: glassnode.com

Glassnode gives you visibility into blockchain data unavailable through price charts alone. It shows how crypto flows between wallets, exchanges, and large holders, which is perfect for tracking institutional activity.

Key features for smart money tracking:

Exchange inflows/outflows: Watch for sudden spikes in BTC or Ether (ETH) moving in/out of exchanges, often a sign that big players are preparing to buy or sell.

Whale metrics: Metrics like “Number of addresses holding 10K+ BTC” help identify when whales are accumulating or distributing.

Realized cap and dormancy: This tells you whether older coins are moving, often a clue that long-term holders (smart money) are repositioning.

Top tip! If you notice a sharp drop in exchange reserves for ETH on Glassnode, that could signal whales are withdrawing ETH to cold storage (a bullish sign). Combine this with price action, and you may have a high-confidence entry point.

2. Nansen

 Category: Wallet and whale tracking
Website: nansen.ai

Key features for smart money tracking:

Smart money dashboard: A curated list of wallets considered “smart” based on their historical returns and behavior.

Token god mode: See what tokens smart money is buying or selling and how holdings have changed over time.

Real-time alerts: Set alerts for transactions by specific wallets or token movements.

Top tip! Suppose that you see that multiple smart money wallets started buying a low-cap altcoin over the past 24 hours. That might be a sign they know something before the broader market does. You can monitor for a breakout and act accordingly.

3. CoinGecko

 Category: Market data and volume analysis
Website: coingecko.com

Key features for smart money tracking:

Volume spikes: Watch for sudden increases in 24-hour volume that are not yet reflected in price — often a prelude to a move.

Liquidity data: Find coins with deep liquidity where institutions might be operating.

Exchange data: Monitor volume by exchange. If one exchange suddenly has massive buy pressure, smart money might be active there.

Top tip! Perhaps a small-cap token sees a 5x spike in volume on Binance but hasn’t moved much in price yet. That divergence can indicate accumulation. You could do a deeper dive with onchain tools Nansen or Glassnode to confirm.

4. Santiment

 Category: Market sentiment and onchain analytics
Website: santiment.net

Key features for smart money tracking:

Social volume and sentiment: Gauge hype levels around tokens. Smart money often moves counter to the crowd.

Whale transaction count: See how many large transactions (e.g., $100,000+) are happening for a given coin.

Development activity: Some smart money tracks developer activity as a proxy for long-term value.

Top tip! A token sees decreasing positive sentiment but a spike in whale transactions. That disconnect can signal smart money is accumulating while retail exits, a classic contrarian play.

5. Chainalysis

Category: Blockchain forensics and risk detection
Website: chainalysis.com

Chainalysis focuses more on risk detection and compliance, but it can still be useful to track large, high-risk wallet movements and avoid traps or manipulated markets.

Key features for smart money tracking:

Address labeling: Know whether a wallet belongs to an exchange, scam, hacker group or institutional custodian.

Transaction monitoring: Track big inflows/outflows and the origin of funds. Are they from DeFi protocols, over-the-counter (OTC) desks or mixers?

Risk scoring: Avoid getting caught in tokens or wallets associated with pump-and-dump schemes or hacks.

Top tip! If you see a large amount of ETH being sent from a wallet flagged as a known DeFi VC to an exchange, that could be a sign of upcoming selling pressure. Conversely, tracking inflows to cold wallets from institutions can be a bullish signal.

Follow the Man o’ War

Think of crypto trading as the open sea, with smart money as powerful Man o’ War ships, navigating with advanced tools and knowledge. As a retail trader, you may not be in control of these ships, but you can follow their course.

Using platforms such as Glassnode, Nansen, CoinGecko, Santiment and Chainalysis, you can track the movements of smart money in real-time. While you might not steer the ship, by observing its wake, you can adjust your course and position yourself for profitable opportunities.

You don’t need to command the ship; just follow its lead to find your way to safe, profitable shores.

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AI and blockchain — A match made in heaven

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Opinion by: Merav Ozair, PhD

Tech moguls cannot stop heralding the artificial intelligence revolution — from Bill Gates to Sundar Pichai to Jensen Huang — signaling that agentic AI and robotics will claim our jobs and act as our autonomous assistants performing on our behalf in our professional and personal lives.

Whether these scenarios happen in a few years or are decades away, we will most likely evolve into that future in some manner, and technology, once again, will reshape our lives. Without the support of blockchain technology, however, it would be quite difficult, and potentially impossible, for agentic AI and robotics to evolve to what its proponents expect them to.

If we expect these services and devices to act autonomously, security, privacy, transparency and accountability will be at the top of our minds. These areas are where blockchain shines and can support AI weaknesses to facilitate the scaling and evolution of this vision. 

Blockchain strengths support AI weaknesses

Blockchain technology can significantly bolster the security of AI models by leveraging its key features such as decentralization, immutability, traceability, smart contracts, data privacy and identity verification. For example, but not limited to:

The decentralization aspect eliminates a single point of attack, increasing the resilience of AI models against breaches. 

The immutability of blockchain ensures that the data used in training AI models and the models themselves cannot be illicitly altered, maintaining the integrity of the models. 

Every alteration or decision made by the AI model can be audibly traced through blockchain, providing unparalleled transparency and accountability. 

Smart contracts automate the enforcement of data access and usage rules, preventing unauthorized or unethical use of AI models. 

Smart contracts can ensure that data is only used for training and testing and by authorized personnel, locking the option to be used for other purposes. Combining these rules with multiparty computation could prevent or at least mitigate AI adversarial attacks. 

Blockchain allows secure multiparty computation, ensuring data privacy during AI model training by keeping the data decentralized. 

Blockchain’s secure identity verification enhances the safety of AI systems by preventing unauthorized access. 

Integrating AI with blockchain can establish a secure, transparent, traceable and decentralized AI environment, protecting our privacy, enhancing accountability and manifesting responsible AI.

Transactions: Programmable AI meets programmable blockchain 

AI agents and robotics are programmable. Smart contacts, the driver of digital assets, are programmable. It makes perfect sense that digital assets would be the preferred payment rail for agent-to-human and agent-to-agent, which includes robotics.

Crypto is an internet-native, programmable money with several advantages for powering the agent-based economy. As AI agents become more autonomous and engage in micro-transactions at scale, crypto’s efficiency, borderless nature and programmability will make it the preferred medium of exchange over traditional fiat rails.

Recent: Sentient open-source AI search outperforms GPT-4o and Perplexity

The true intersection of Web3 and agentic AI for financial transactions could emerge through new tokens and protocols tailored for this use case. These could extend stablecoin capabilities by integrating agent-specific functionalities.

In this scenario, payments could be made using a specialized asset that agents can stake for quality control. Slashing policies could penalize poor performance, while validators could resolve disputes based on task quality.

Additionally, agents’ reputations could be directly tied to their token stakes. Incorporating rules via smart contracts enables users to have control over their autonomous workers/assistants, enabling a shutdown or even a “kill switch,” if necessary, when AI agents start behaving dangerously. 

If Goldman Sachs wants to create AI agents that think and act like a seasoned employee in a highly regulated industry and with imperative risk to financial systems and at the extreme financial markets’ stability, it would be vital, not optional, to have these AI agents controlled by programmable tokens.

While this approach requires advancements in both Web3 and agentic AI, it is not as distant as it may seem.

Blockchain development firm Skyfire recently launched a payment platform that allows AI agents to spend money autonomously. Helmed by former Ripple vice president of products and services Amir Sarhangi, the company’s platform enables a business to give a pre-loaded wallet to an AI agent.

The company’s protocol converts the cash into USDC (USDC). In early March, Skyfire brought its payments network that enables AI agents to make autonomous transactions out of beta.

Using digital assets for robotics, VR devices and agentic AI transactions goes beyond a mode of payment for transactions. It could enhance user experience and security and enable endless business models that have never existed.

It would be interesting to see how it all plays out and whether other companies will follow.

There are risk issues to be addressed, however, and we should be mindful of how they are, at the very least, mitigated. This is where we should carefully consider the security measures discussed previously.

Stepping out of “tunnel vision” to a multifaceted approach

There is a lot of focus on the evolution of AI — generative AI, agentic AI, reasoning models, physical world models and more — all focusing on the premise that AI is the sole technology that we need to achieve AI autonomous agents at scale.

This is quite a tunnel vision approach to how products are built, and it is somewhat myopic: not understanding what needs to be accomplished beyond AI models’ advancement for the ecosystem to evolve and scale.

AI, advanced as it can be, cannot stand on its own and needs the support of blockchain technology — a programmable match made in heaven. Therefore, we must act in a multifaceted approach. We should think about and treat AI and Web3 together in terms of innovation, regulation and infrastructure. This is fundamental to the bedrock of a successful agentic economy.

“Dreams are built with solid foundations,” and the time to build them is now.

Opinion by: Merav Ozair, PhD.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

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US crypto exchange Coinbase has filed with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch futures contracts for Ripple’s XRP token.

“We’re excited to announce that Coinbase Derivatives has filed with the CFTC to self-certify XRP futures — bringing a regulated, capital-efficient way to gain exposure to one of the most liquid digital assets,” stated Coinbase Institutional on April 3. 

The firm added that it anticipates the contract going live on April 21.

According to the certification filing, the XRP (XRP) futures contract will be a monthly cash-settled and margined contract trading under the symbol XRL.

The contract tracks XRP’s price and is settled in US dollars. Each contract represents 10,000 XRP, currently worth about $20,000 at $2 per token.

Contracts can be traded for the current month and two months ahead, and trading will be paused as a safety measure if spot XRP prices move more than 10% in an hour. 

“The exchange has spoken with FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) and market participants who support the decision to launch a XRP contract,” the firm stated. 

Coinbase is not the first to launch XRP futures in the United States. In March, Chicago-based crypto exchange Bitnomial announced the launch of the “first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures in the US.” 

XRP futures trading is available on many of the world’s leading centralized crypto exchanges, such as Binance, OKX, Bybit and BitMEX. 

Funding rates remain negative

In late March, Cointelegraph reported that XRP derivatives’ funding rates had flipped negative as investor sentiment turned bearish. 

Related: XRP funding rate flips negative — Will smart traders flip long or short?

Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets that help keep the futures price aligned with the spot price. Positive funding rates mean that long traders (buyers) pay short traders, while negative funding rates mean short traders (sellers) pay long traders. 

When funding rates go negative, it means short traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions, indicating strong conviction from bearish derivatives traders. 

XRP funding rates remained negative on major derivatives exchanges as of April 4, according to CoinGlass. 

XRP OI-weighted funding rates. Source: CoinGlass

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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EU could fine Elon Musk’s X $1B over illicit content, disinformation

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European Union regulators are reportedly mulling a $1 billion fine against Elon Musk’s X, taking into account revenue from his other ventures, including Tesla and SpaceX, according to The New York Times.

EU regulators allege that X has violated the Digital Services Act and will use a section of the act to calculate a fine based on revenue that includes other companies Musk controls, according to an April 3 report by the newspaper, which cited four people with knowledge of the plan.

Under the Digital Services Act, which came into law in October 2022 to police social media companies and “prevent illegal and harmful activities online,” companies can be fined up to 6% of global revenue for violations.

A spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, declined to comment on this case to The New York Times but did say it would “continue to enforce our laws fairly and without discrimination toward all companies operating in the EU.”

In a statement, X’s Global Government Affairs team said that if the reports about the EU’s plans are accurate, it “represents an unprecedented act of political censorship and an attack on free speech.”

“X has gone above and beyond to comply with the EU’s Digital Services Act, and we will use every option at our disposal to defend our business, keep our users safe, and protect freedom of speech in Europe,” X’s global government affairs team said.

Source: Global Government Affairs

Along with the fine, the EU regulators could reportedly demand product changes at X, with the full scope of any penalties to be announced in the coming months. 

Still, a settlement could be reached if the social media platform agrees to changes that satisfy regulators, according to the Times. 

One of the officials who spoke to the Times also said that X is facing a second investigation alleging the platform’s approach to policing user-generated content has made it a hub of illegal hate speech and disinformation, which could result in more penalties.

X EU investigation ongoing since 2023

The EU investigation began in 2023. A preliminary ruling in July 2024 found X had violated the Digital Services Act by refusing to provide data to outside researchers, provide adequate transparency about advertisers, or verify the authenticity of users who have a verified account.

Related: Musk says he found ‘magic money computers’ printing money ‘out of thin air’

X responded to the ruling with hundreds of points of dispute, and Musk said at the time he was offered a deal, alleging that EU regulators told him if he secretly suppressed certain content, X would escape fines. 

Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner for internal market, said in a July 12 X post in 2024 that there was no secret deal and that X’s team had asked for the “Commission to explain the process for settlement and to clarify our concerns,” and its response was in line with “established regulatory procedures.” 

Musk replied he was looking “forward to a very public battle in court so that the people of Europe can know the truth.”

Source: Thierry Breton

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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