Coin Market

Worst Q1 for BTC price since 2018: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Published

4 days ago

March 31, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms.

BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US trade tariffs weigh on risk-asset sentiment.

Crypto traders’ tariff woes focus on April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, while gold heads higher.

Despite the doom and gloom, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March, while Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years.

Profitability currently points the way to a bull market drawdown with no realistic bottom in sight.

The Coinbase Premium puts up a fight amid the price dip, suggesting that panic sellers have already exited.

BTC price: “Bearish engulfing” sets the tone

Bitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes.

A recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000.

The lowest levels in two weeks at about $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.

“In LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,” trader CrypNuevo responded on X.

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fellow trading account HTL-NL noted a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart.

“Let’s see if it plays out,” he told X followers.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL/X

The picture on longer timeframes, per trading resource Barchart, is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves.

Bitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called “death crosses,” it warned prior to the Wall Street open, as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.

“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we’ve seen many times before?” Barchart queried.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

A look at exchange order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price.

Continuing, CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

“Seeing some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA which always leads to an aggressive move,” he observed.

“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It’s also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

D-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught

US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

Job openings, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2.

This may be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report, crypto remains highly sensitive to tariff news, with Trump giving mixed messages as to which measures will ultimately come into force.

In a dedicated X thread on the topic, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that tariffs may impact about $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month.

“President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named ‘Liberation Day’ where widespread new tariffs are coming,” it wrote.

“We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.”

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi pointed to unusually high levels of market uncertainty, as represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

With many a surprise to come, market commentators are not the only ones in “wait and see” mode.

April 4 will see Fed Chair Powell take to the stage with a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Earlier this month, Powell said that while it was not easy to pin inflation pressures on tariffs, he was in no hurry to lower interest rates — the key move awaited by risk-asset traders.

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed’s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin rounds off a limp Q1

As both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at a distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.

BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Conditions have worsened for hodlers thanks to gold outperforming as a safe-haven bet, hitting repeated all-time highs while BTC/USD fell 30% from its January peak.

That bull market correction, however, remains fairly standard in a historical perspective. Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets passed 60%.

“This cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,” it acknowledged in February.

Bitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: Glassnode

Others agree that despite the frustrating lack of further price upside, Bitcoin has weathered the macroeconomic storm fairly well.

“Overall quarter not horrible,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized about the CoinGlass figures this weekend.

On a monthly basis, the picture remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios — 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

MVRV Ratio lacks “definitive bottom signal”

A key Bitcoin price metric continues to give off warning signals this week as the market flushes out “overheated” conditions.

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market cap to realized cap to determine short-term and long-term profitability, is trending back toward its long-term average.

In early March, the tool printed a so-called “death cross” — its short-term moving average crossed below a long-term equivalent, in keeping with the profit drawdown sparked by Bitcoin’s descent below $80,000.

“Much like in previous cycles, this cross was followed by a price decline after Bitcoin hit a local peak, reinforcing the MVRV’s effectiveness as a market sentiment indicator,” Yonsei Dent, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 30.

“With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.”

Bitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Dent suggested that while current behavior mimics past BTC price cycles, market participants “should remain cautious of further downside risk.”

Last month, analysis predicted that Bitcoin still has room for fresh all-time highs on longer timeframes, based on MVRV ratio data.

Coinbase traders keep the faith

The return of the Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow this quarter as episodes of panic selling characterized recent market behavior.

The Premium, which is the difference in spot price between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, currently hovers around neutral.

While unremarkable in and of itself, the metric’s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure caught the eye of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon.

“Panic selling is decreasing,” he concluded in another Quicktake post this weekend.

A positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure and is traditionally a key ingredient in sustainable Bitcoin bull markets.

Meanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sunmoon to suspect a “possible trend reversal.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

First Digital redeems $26M after FDUSD depeg, dismisses Sun insolvency claims

Published

56 minutes ago

April 4, 2025

First Digital has redeemed almost $26 million in stablecoin withdrawals after its FDUSD token briefly lost its US dollar peg following allegations of insolvency by Tron founder Justin Sun.

First Digital USD (FDUSD) depegged on April 2, briefly falling as low as $0.87 after Sun claimed that First Digital was insolvent.

On April 4, Sun doubled down on his allegations, claiming the firm transferred over $450 million of customer funds to a Dubai-based entity and that it violated Hong Kong securities regulations.

Source: H.E. Justin Sun

“FDT transferred $456 million of its custodial clients to a private company in Dubai without their authorization and has not yet returned the money,” Sun claimed.

Despite the claims, blockchain data from Etherscan shows First Digital has honored approximately $25.8 million in FDUSD redemptions since the incident.

FDUSD redemptions. Source: Etherscan

“We continue to process redemptions smoothly, demonstrating the fortitude of $FDUSD,” noted First Digital in an April 3 X post.

When users redeem FDUSD for US dollars, the corresponding amount of FDUSD is burned onchain for the stablecoin to maintain a 1-to-1 peg with the US dollar and ensure the circulating supply matches reserves.

Following Sun’s claims, First Digital assured users that it is solvent and that FDUSD remains fully backed and redeemable.

Source: First Digital

“First Digital stands firm: Justin Sun’s baseless accusations won’t distract from Techteryx’s own failures— our stablecoin FDUSD remains fully backed and solvent,” First Digital stated in an April 3 X post.

Stablecoin depegs “greater systemic risk” than Bitcoin crash

Stablecoins depegs pose “a greater systemic risk” to crypto than a Bitcoin (BTC) crash, as “stablecoins are integral to liquidity, DeFi and user trust,” according to Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

Stablecoin depegs can cause “cascading failures like the TerraUSD collapse in 2022,” Chen told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Current transparency, collateral quality and accountability among leading stablecoin issuers are insufficient — Tether’s lack of full audits, USDC’s exposure to banking risks and algorithmic stablecoins’ fragility highlight the market’s vulnerability to the next depeg event.”

“To mitigate risks, the market should enforce real-time audits, prioritize high-quality collateral like US Treasurys, strengthen regulatory oversight and diversify stablecoin usage to reduce reliance on a few dominant players,” Chen added.

In May 2022, the $40 billion Terra ecosystem collapsed, erasing tens of billions of dollars of value in days. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST), had yielded an over 20% annual percentage yield (APY) on Anchor Protocol before its collapse.

As UST lost its dollar peg, crashing to a low of around $0.30, Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon took to X (then Twitter) to share his rescue plan. At the same time, the value of sister token LUNA — once a top 10 crypto project by market capitalization — plunged over 98% to $0.84. LUNA was trading north of $120 in early April 2022.

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Coin Market

Malta regulator fines OKX crypto exchange $1.2M for past AML breaches

Published

2 hours ago

April 4, 2025

Cryptocurrency exchange OKX is under renewed regulatory scrutiny in Europe after Maltese authorities issued a major fine for violations of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws.

Malta’s Financial Intelligence Analysis Unit (FIAU) fined Okcoin Europe — OKX’s Europe-based subsidiary — 1.1 million euros ($1.2 million) after detecting multiple AML failures on the platform in the past, the authority announced on April 3.

While admitting that OKX has significantly improved its AML policies in the past 18 months, the authority “could not ignore” its past compliance failures from 2023, “some of which were deemed to be serious and systematic,” the FIAU notice said.

OKX was among the first crypto exchanges to receive a license under Europe’s new Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation via its Malta hub in January 2025.

The news of the $1.2 million penalty in Malta came after Bloomberg in March reported that European Union regulators were probing OKX for laundering $100 million in funds from the Bybit hack.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou previously claimed that OKX’s Web3 proxy allowed hackers to launder about $100 million, or 40,233 Ether (ETH), from the $1.5 billion hack that occurred in February.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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Coin Market

Trump tariffs squeeze already struggling Bitcoin miners — Braiins exec

Published

2 hours ago

April 4, 2025

The new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump may place added pressure on the Bitcoin mining ecosystem both domestically and globally, according to one industry executive.

While the US is home to Bitcoin (BTC) mining manufacturing firms such as Auradine, it’s still “not possible to make the whole supply chain, including materials, US-based,” Kristian Csepcsar, chief marketing officer at BTC mining tech provider Braiins, told Cointelegraph.

On April 2, Trump announced sweeping tariffs, imposing a 10% tariff on all countries that export to the US and introducing “reciprocal” levies targeting America’s key trading partners.

Community members have debated the potential effects of the tariffs on Bitcoin, with some saying their impact has been overstated, while others see them as a significant threat.

Tariffs compound existing mining challenges

Csepcsar said the mining industry is already experiencing tough times, pointing to key indicators like the BTC hashprice.

Hashprice — a measure of a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hash power spent to mine BTC blocks — has been on the decline since 2022 and dropped to all-time lows of $50 for the first time in 2024.

According to data from Bitbo, the BTC hashprice was still hovering around all-time low levels of $53 on March 30.

Bitcoin hashprice since late 2013. Source: Bitbo

“Hashprice is the key metric miners follow to understand their bottom line. It is how many dollars one terahash makes a day. A key profitability metric, and it is at all-time lows, ever,” Csepcsar said.

He added that mining equipment tariffs were already increasing under the Biden administration in 2024, and cited comments from Summer Meng, general manager at Chinese crypto mining supplier Bitmars.

Source: Summer Meng

“But they keep getting stricter under Trump,” Csepcsar added, referring to companies such as the China-based Bitmain — the world’s largest ASIC manufacturer — which is subject to the new tariffs.

Trump’s latest measures include a 34% additional tariff on top of an existing 20% levy for Chinese mining imports. In response, China reportedly imposed its own retaliatory tariffs on April 4.

BTC mining firms to “lose in the short term”

Csepcsar also noted that cutting-edge chips for crypto mining are currently massively produced in countries like Taiwan and South Korea, which were hit by new 32% and 25% tariffs, respectively.

“It will take a decade for the US to catch up with cutting-edge chip manufacturing. So again, companies, including American ones, lose in the short term,” he said.

Source: jmhorp

Csepcsar also observed that some countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States region, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have been beefing up mining efforts and could potentially overtake the US in hashrate dominance.

“If we continue to see trade war, these regions with low tariffs and more favorable mining conditions can see a major boom,” Csepcsar warned.

As the newly announced tariffs potentially hurt Bitcoin mining both globally and in the US, it may become more difficult for Trump to keep his promise of making the US the global mining leader.

Trump’s stance on crypto has shifted multiple times over the years. As his administration embraces a more pro-crypto agenda, it remains to be seen how the latest economic policies will impact his long-term strategy for digital assets.

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