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Price analysis 3/31: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, TON

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Bitcoin (BTC) fell 4.29% last week, but the bulls started a recovery by pushing the price back above $83,500 on March 31. However, traders are likely to remain on edge until April 2, when new US trade tariffs are set to kick in. The event could trigger a sharp, knee-jerk reaction on either side of the market.

Traders remain cautious in the near term, but a minor positive is that lower levels are attracting buyers. Cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed modest inflows of $226 million last week, CoinShares reported on March 31. 

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Strategy took advantage of the pullback in Bitcoin by adding 22,048 Bitcoin for $1.92 billion at an average price of $86,969. After the latest purchase, the company holds 528,185 Bitcoin bought for roughly $35.63 billion.

Could Bitcoin break above the stiff overhead resistance, pulling select altcoins higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) broke above the 20-day exponential moving average (5,706) on March 24, but that proved to be a bull trap.

SPX daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The price turned down sharply on March 26 and broke below the 5,600 support. Both moving averages are sloping down, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the negative territory, indicating an advantage to sellers. There is solid support at 5,500, but if the level breaks down, the index could tumble to 5,400 and subsequently to 5,100.

This negative view will be invalidated if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above 5,800. Such a move suggests that the index may have bottomed out in the near term.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading below the 20-day EMA (104.46), indicating that the sentiment remains negative.

DXY daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears will try to sink the index to 103.37, which is a critical level to watch out for. Buyers are expected to defend the 103.37 level with all their might because if they fail in their endeavor, the index could plunge to 101.

Contrarily, a break and close above the 20-day EMA suggests that the bulls are trying to make a comeback. The index may rise to 105.42 and then to the 50-day simple moving average (106.09).

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin remains under pressure as bears are trying to sink the price to the critical support at $80,000. A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they are attempting to arrest the decline at $81,100.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price to the resistance line, which is likely to attract strong selling by the bears. If the price turns down from the resistance line, the likelihood of a break below $80,000 increases. The BTC/USDT pair could slump to $76,606 and eventually to $73,777.

On the contrary, a break and close above the resistance line suggests that the bears are losing their grip. The pair could pick up momentum above $89,000 and rally toward $95,000.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) has reached the vital support at $1,754, from where the bulls are trying to start a relief rally.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The bears will try to halt the recovery attempt at the 20-day EMA ($1,980). If the price turns down sharply from the 20-day EMA, it increases the possibility of a break below $1,754. That could sink the ETH/USDT pair to $1,550.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the breakdown level of $2,111. The pair will then complete a bullish double-bottom pattern, which has a target objective of $2,468.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has dropped to the critical $2 support, which is likely to attract solid buying by the bulls. 

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Any bounce is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it heightens the risk of a break below $2. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. There is minor support at $1.77, but if the level gets taken out, the pair could collapse to $1.27.

Time is running out for the bulls. If they want to prevent the downside, they will have to quickly drive the price above the moving averages. The pair may then travel to the resistance line.

BNB price analysis

BNB’s (BNB) narrow range resolved to the downside with a break and close below the moving averages on March 29.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair has support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $591 and then at the 50% retracement level of $575. If the price rebounds off the support, the bulls will try to propel the pair above the moving averages and the $644 resistance. If they manage to do that, the pair could rally to $686.

Contrarily, a break and close below $575 could sink the pair to the 61.8% retracement level of $559. A deeper pullback is likely to delay the next leg of the up move.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) is finding support near $120, indicating that the buyers are fiercely defending the level.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($133). That opens the doors for a rise to the 50-day SMA ($148), which may again act as a stiff resistance. However, if buyers pierce the resistance, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $180.

If sellers want to strengthen their position, they will have to pull the price below the $120 to $110 support zone. If they manage to do that, the pair could start the next leg of the downtrend toward $80.

Related: XRP bulls in ‘denial’ as price trend mirrors previous 75-90% crashes

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is trying to take support at the $0.16 support, but a weak bounce suggests a lack of demand from the bulls.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair could skid to $0.14, where the buyers are expected to step in. Any bounce-off of $0.14 is expected to face selling at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it increases the possibility of a break below $0.14. If that happens, the pair could plummet to $0.10.

Buyers will have to push and maintain the price above $0.20 to suggest that the pair may have formed a floor at $0.14. The pair may then ascend to $0.24.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) has slipped to the uptrend line, which is an important near-term support to watch out for.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($0.71) and the RSI in the negative territory signal a slight advantage to the bears. A close below the uptrend line could start a downward move toward $0.50.

On the other hand, a bounce off the uptrend line could push the ADA/USDT pair toward the moving averages. Buyers will be back in control after they propel and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.75).

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) is getting squeezed between the 20-day EMA ($3.63) and the overhead resistance at $4.14.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory suggest the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers drive the price above $4.14, the TON/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and climb to $5 and later to $5.65.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($3.46). That could sink the pair to $3.30 and later to $2.81.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coinbase Institutional files for XRP futures trading with CFTC

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US crypto exchange Coinbase has filed with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to launch futures contracts for Ripple’s XRP token.

“We’re excited to announce that Coinbase Derivatives has filed with the CFTC to self-certify XRP futures — bringing a regulated, capital-efficient way to gain exposure to one of the most liquid digital assets,” stated Coinbase Institutional on April 3. 

The firm added that it anticipates the contract going live on April 21.

According to the certification filing, the XRP (XRP) futures contract will be a monthly cash-settled and margined contract trading under the symbol XRL.

The contract tracks XRP’s price and is settled in US dollars. Each contract represents 10,000 XRP, currently worth about $20,000 at $2 per token.

Contracts can be traded for the current month and two months ahead, and trading will be paused as a safety measure if spot XRP prices move more than 10% in an hour. 

“The exchange has spoken with FCMs (Futures Commission Merchants) and market participants who support the decision to launch a XRP contract,” the firm stated. 

Coinbase is not the first to launch XRP futures in the United States. In March, Chicago-based crypto exchange Bitnomial announced the launch of the “first-ever CFTC-regulated XRP futures in the US.” 

XRP futures trading is available on many of the world’s leading centralized crypto exchanges, such as Binance, OKX, Bybit and BitMEX. 

Funding rates remain negative

In late March, Cointelegraph reported that XRP derivatives’ funding rates had flipped negative as investor sentiment turned bearish. 

Related: XRP funding rate flips negative — Will smart traders flip long or short?

Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets that help keep the futures price aligned with the spot price. Positive funding rates mean that long traders (buyers) pay short traders, while negative funding rates mean short traders (sellers) pay long traders. 

When funding rates go negative, it means short traders are willing to pay a premium to maintain their positions, indicating strong conviction from bearish derivatives traders. 

XRP funding rates remained negative on major derivatives exchanges as of April 4, according to CoinGlass. 

XRP OI-weighted funding rates. Source: CoinGlass

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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EU could fine Elon Musk’s X $1B over illicit content, disinformation

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European Union regulators are reportedly mulling a $1 billion fine against Elon Musk’s X, taking into account revenue from his other ventures, including Tesla and SpaceX, according to The New York Times.

EU regulators allege that X has violated the Digital Services Act and will use a section of the act to calculate a fine based on revenue that includes other companies Musk controls, according to an April 3 report by the newspaper, which cited four people with knowledge of the plan.

Under the Digital Services Act, which came into law in October 2022 to police social media companies and “prevent illegal and harmful activities online,” companies can be fined up to 6% of global revenue for violations.

A spokesman for the European Commission, the bloc’s executive branch, declined to comment on this case to The New York Times but did say it would “continue to enforce our laws fairly and without discrimination toward all companies operating in the EU.”

In a statement, X’s Global Government Affairs team said that if the reports about the EU’s plans are accurate, it “represents an unprecedented act of political censorship and an attack on free speech.”

“X has gone above and beyond to comply with the EU’s Digital Services Act, and we will use every option at our disposal to defend our business, keep our users safe, and protect freedom of speech in Europe,” X’s global government affairs team said.

Source: Global Government Affairs

Along with the fine, the EU regulators could reportedly demand product changes at X, with the full scope of any penalties to be announced in the coming months. 

Still, a settlement could be reached if the social media platform agrees to changes that satisfy regulators, according to the Times. 

One of the officials who spoke to the Times also said that X is facing a second investigation alleging the platform’s approach to policing user-generated content has made it a hub of illegal hate speech and disinformation, which could result in more penalties.

X EU investigation ongoing since 2023

The EU investigation began in 2023. A preliminary ruling in July 2024 found X had violated the Digital Services Act by refusing to provide data to outside researchers, provide adequate transparency about advertisers, or verify the authenticity of users who have a verified account.

Related: Musk says he found ‘magic money computers’ printing money ‘out of thin air’

X responded to the ruling with hundreds of points of dispute, and Musk said at the time he was offered a deal, alleging that EU regulators told him if he secretly suppressed certain content, X would escape fines. 

Thierry Breton, the former EU commissioner for internal market, said in a July 12 X post in 2024 that there was no secret deal and that X’s team had asked for the “Commission to explain the process for settlement and to clarify our concerns,” and its response was in line with “established regulatory procedures.” 

Musk replied he was looking “forward to a very public battle in court so that the people of Europe can know the truth.”

Source: Thierry Breton

Magazine: XRP win leaves Ripple a ‘bad actor’ with no crypto legal precedent set

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Fortnite doubles down on crypto joke with another secret ‘Dill Bits’ location

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Online battle royale shooter Fortnite has just added a new secret “Dill Bits” server mine location to its latest map update — prompting a small spike in an otherwise obscure memecoin.

Videos on social media show a new “Dill Bit” server farm location in the game — made to look like a cryptocurrency mining operation. There are other locations on the map where it has appeared.

Fortnite added a Bitcoin mine to the new map pic.twitter.com/z8ABokLG2b

— Documenting ₿itcoin 📄 (@DocumentingBTC) April 3, 2025

Players in the game can collect Dill Bits by destroying the equipment. It’s a unique resource that is typically hard to obtain.

Dill Bits memecoin spikes

Solana-based memecoin Dill Bits, inspired by the Fortnite in-game currency, spiked 200% to $0.0005 on April 4 as the crypto community also took notice of the latest addition.

Fortnite introduced Dill Bits as an in-game currency in February as a jest toward crypto. However, these can only be used to buy in-game items. 

At the time, the announcement of the in-game currency prompted an anonymous crypto user to create their own version of the token on Solana.

The recent spike is nowhere near previous surges, however. When the memecoin first launched in February, it surged 4,500% in price to reach a market cap of $4.8 million.

Another huge spike for the memecoin occurred on March 9, after Fortnite released a video promoting its latest “Rugpull” storyline, which saw the token pump over 4,000% in just a few minutes again.

DB price spike. Source: DEX Screener

The underground Bitcoin mine shows banks of green servers with the Dill Bit logo, which looks very similar to Bitcoin’s.

Another player posted a YouTube video on April 1 showing all of the secret locations on the map, explaining that if the servers are destroyed in the game, they may drop Dill Bits. 

“Wow. Bitcoin really becoming mainstream for a game like Fortnite to add this little easter egg,” commented one player on Reddit after becoming aware of the secret location on April 3.

The gimmick is not likely new for Fortnite players, as other hidden server mines have been discovered in other parts of the map since the in-game currency was introduced. 

According to the official Fortnite Wiki, the new Dill Bits Mining Server is an “Unnamed Location in Fortnite: Battle Royale, that was added in Chapter 6: Season 2 to the island Oninoshima near Outlaw Oasis.” It is a “small cave containing servers mining the cryptocurrency called Dill Bits,” it states

New secret location in Fortnite. Source: Reddit

The online battle royale platform developed by Epic Games released its most recent update on April 1, which included a new Mortal Kombat collaboration, quests, skins and map updates. 

Related: Epic wants Fortnite, Minecraft, Roblox to become interoperable metaverse

Fortnite’s in-game cryptocurrency

Dill Bits, Fortnite’s in-game currency, can be spent “at one of three Black Markets around the map, offering a selection of Mythic and Legendary items,” and “Boons” that grant extra abilities, the Fortnite team explained at the time. 

An in-game description calls Dill Bits “a bulky and confusing crypto coin you never knew you needed. These coins are ideal for shady black-market trades.”

Magazine: Web3 gaming activity surges 386% — Wen bull run? Web3 Gamer

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