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Bitcoin falls to $81.5K as US stock futures sell-off in advance of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs

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Bitcoin looks set for a bearish open to mark the last trading day of March and possibly the weakest Q1 performance since 2018. 

Crypto and stock traders’ anxiety over US President Donald Trump’s fresh wave of 25% tariffs on cars imported to the US, the threat of tariffs on the pharmaceutical industry is clearly reflected in BTC’s current downside. Trump’s frequent references to April 2 being “Liberation Day” (the day when an apparent number for “reciprocal tariffs” will be assigned to various countries) also has shaken traders’ confidence. 

At the time of publishing, stock futures have already slipped into the red, with the DOW futures shedding 206 points and the S&P 500 futures down 0.56%. As expected, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price moved in tandem with equities markets, slipping to $81,656 on March 30 and locking in a 7th consecutive day of lower lows. 

US futures markets performance on March 30. Source: X / Spencer Hakimian

After a tumultuous quarter, equities markets look set to close down for the month, with the S&P 500 down 6.3% and the Nasdaq and DOW each registering 8.1% and 5.2% respective losses. 

Bitcoin’s steady decline is a combination of weak demand in spot markets and clear derisking from traders who are reluctant to open fresh positions in BTC’s futures markets. 

Last week’s core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data showed a higher-than-anticipated uptick in inflation, and March consumer confidence data from the Conference Board showed the monthly confidence index — a metric that reflects respondents’ expectation for income, business and job prospects — at a 12-year low. 

Consumer confidence present situation and future expectations data. Source: The Conference Board

Related: Bitcoin bottom ‘likely’ at $80K, opening door for TON, CRO, MNT and RENDER to rally

Recession odds also continue to rise, with a recent report from Goldman Sachs raising the 12-month recession probability from their previous 20% to 35%. In the report, Goldman Sachs’ analysts said, 

“The upgrade from our previous 20% estimate reflects our lower growth beeline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”    

US recession odds raised by Goldman Sachs. Source: X / Peter Berezin

Does Bitcoin’s downside have a silver lining? 

While many crypto analysts have publicly revised their bullish six-figure-plus BTC price estimates and now forecast a revisit to Bitcoin’s swing lows in the mid $70,000 range, institutional investors continue to buy, and net inflows to the spot ETFs remain positive. 

On March 30, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor took to X and posted his famous orange dots Bitcoin chart, saying, 

“Needs even more Orange.” 

Strategy Bitcoin purchases. Source: X / Michael Saylor 

Data from CryptoQuant also shows Bitcoin inflows to accumulation addresses continuing to rise throughout the month. 

BTC: Inflows to accumulation addresses. Source: CryptoQuant 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

‘National emergency’ as Trump’s tariffs dent crypto prices

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Crypto markets dipped after US President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national emergency and sweeping tariffs on all countries as part of his latest salvo in the ongoing trade war. 

The Trump administration has hit all countries with a 10% tariff starting April 5, with some countries facing even larger rates, such as China facing a 34% tariff, the European Union 20%, and Japan 24%. 

During an April 2 speech in the Rose Garden at the White House, Trump said the US is charging countries “approximately half of what they are and have been charging us.”

🚨 @POTUS signs an Executive Order instituting reciprocal tariffs on countries throughout the world.

It’s LIBERATION DAY in America! pic.twitter.com/p7UnfE617B

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 2, 2025

The crypto market briefly went up at the news of a 10% sweeping tariff,  but once the full scope became known, it dipped with bleeding across the board. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had been staging a rally, reaching a session high at $88,500 but dropped 2.6% back to around $82,876. Meanwhile, CoinGecko data shows Ether (ETH) dropped over 6% from $1,934 to $1,797 following the tariff announcements and the total crypto market cap dropped 5.3% to $2.7 trillion. 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures market sentiment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, returned a score of 25, classed as extreme fear, in its latest April 2 update. 

However, prices have clawed back some losses since. Bitcoin has recovered 0.8% to $83,205. While Ether regained 1.2% to take back $1,810.

The crypto Fear & Greed Index score has returned an average rating of fear for the last week but has now dipped to extreme fear. Source: Alternative.me

Stock markets didn’t fare much better; trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 2 post to X that the stock market index S&P 500 erased over $2 trillion in market cap, working out to be roughly $125 billion per minute.

Trump tariffs could bring certainty to markets

Rachael Lucas, a crypto analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said the brief surge was a case of “uncertainty relief,”  then a sell-off as the full tariff details were released. 

“On BTC Markets, trading volume surged 46% as local traders scrambled to reposition. Big players took profit on the spike, while smaller investors hesitated,” she said in a statement.

Source: Daan Crypto Trades

She added that if China or the European Union “hit back hard,” expect another round of panic selling.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged US trading partners in an April 2 interview with Bloomberg against taking retaliatory steps, arguing “this is the high end of the number” for tariffs if they don’t try to add more levies in response, which could provide a “ceiling” and certainty for markets.

David Hernandez, a crypto investment specialist at crypto asset manager  21Shares, told Cointelegraph that markets experienced significant volatility during Trump’s speech, but the clarity could be a good thing in the long term. 

“Although the tariff rates were slightly higher than expectations, the announcement provided much-needed clarity on the scope and scale of the policy,” he said.

Related: 70% chance of crypto bottoming before June amid trade fears: Nansen

“Markets thrive on certainty, and with speculation now largely removed, institutional investors may see an opportunity over the coming days to take advantage of compressed valuations.”

Hernandez says global responses will be key for the market going forward, speculating that Mexico and key East Asian economies, including China, South Korea, and Japan, could be evaluating countermeasures.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Former New York governor advised OKX over $505M federal probe: Report

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Cryptocurrency exchange OKX reportedly hired former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo to advise it over the federal probe that resulted in the firm pleading guilty to several violations and agreeing to pay $505 million in fines and penalties.

Cuomo, a New York-registered attorney, advised OKX on legal issues stemming from the probe sometime after August 2021 when he resigned as New York overnor, Bloomberg reported on April 2, citing people familiar with the matter.

“He spoke with company executives regularly and counseled them on how to respond to the criminal investigation,” Bloomberg said.

The Seychelles-based firm pled guilty to operating an unlicensed money-transmitting business in violation of US Anti-Money Laundering laws on Feb. 24 and agreed to pay $84 million worth of penalties while forfeiting $421 million worth of fees earned from mostly institutional clients.

The breaches occurred from 2018 to 2024 despite OKX having an official policy preventing US persons from transacting on its crypto exchange since 2017, the Department of Justice noted at the time.

A spokesperson for Cuomo, Rich Azzopardi, told Bloomberg that Cuomo has been providing private legal services representing individuals and corporations on a variety of matters since resigning as New York governor.

“He has not represented clients before a New York city or state agency and routinely recommends former colleagues for positions,”  Azzopardi added.

OKX reportedly wasn’t willing to comment on its relationships with outside firms.

Cuomo also influenced OKX to make executive appointments: Bloomberg

Cuomo, who is now running for mayor of New York City, also advised OKX to appoint his friend US Attorney Linda Lacewell to OKX’s board of directors, Bloomberg said.

Lacewell, a former superintendent of the New York Department of Financial Services, was added to the board in 2024 and was named OKX’s new chief legal officer on April 1, according to a recent company statement.

Source: Linda Lacewell

Related: New York bill aims to protect crypto investors from memecoin rug pulls

After the investigation concluded, OKX said it would seek out a compliance consultant to remedy the issues stemming from the federal probe and bolster its regulatory compliance program.

“Our vision is to make OKX the gold standard of global compliance at scale across different markets and their respective regulatory bodies,” OKX CEO Star Xu said in a Feb. 24 X post.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Trump imposes 10% tariff on all countries, reciprocal levies on trading partners

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United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.

The reciprocal levies on will be approximately half of what trading partners charge for US imports, Trump said. For example, China currently has a tariff of 67% on US imports, so US reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods will be 34%. Trump also announced a standard 25% tariff on all automobile imports.

Trump told the media that tariffs would return the country to economic prosperity seen in previous centuries:

“From 1789 to 1913, we were a tariff-backed nation. The United States was proportionately the wealthiest it has ever been. So wealthy, in fact, that in the 1880s, they established a commission to decide what they were going to do with the vast sums of money they were collecting.”

“Then, in 1913, for reasons unknown to mankind, they established the income tax so that citizens, rather than foreign countries, would start paying,” Trump said.

Full breakdown of reciprocal tariffs by country. Source: Cointelegraph

Trump presented the tariffs through the lens of economic protectionism and hinted at returning to the economic policies of the 19th century by using them to replace the income tax.

Related: Bitcoin rally to $88.5K obliterates bears as spot volumes soar — Will a tariff war stop the party?

Trump proposes eliminating federal income tax and replacing it with tariff revenue

Trump proposed the idea of abolishing the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and funding the federal government exclusively through trade tariffs while still on the campaign trail in October 2024.

According to accounting automation company Dancing Numbers, Trump’s plan could save each American taxpayer $134,809-$325,561 in taxes throughout their lives.

US President Donald Trump addresses the media about reciprocal trade tariffs at the April 2 press event. Source: Fox 4 Dallas

The higher range of the tax savings estimate will only occur if other wage-based taxes are eliminated at the state and municipal levels.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who assumed office in February, also voiced support for replacing the IRS with the “External Revenue Service.”

Lutnick said that the US government cannot balance a budget yet consistently demands more from its citizens every year. Tariffs will also protect American workers and strengthen the US economy, he said.

Magazine: Elon Musk’s plan to run government on blockchain faces uphill battle

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