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US recession 40% likely in 2025, what it means for crypto — Analyst

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The United States has a 40% chance of a recession in 2025 amid the potential for a protracted trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty, according to market analyst and Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin.

In an interview with Cointelegraph, the analyst said that while a recession is not probable, a recession and the current macroeconomic uncertainty will create an environment where risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies suffer. Puckrin said:

“Trump and his advisors have said they have not completely dismissed the recession, which means it is definitely possible, but right now, I would not say it is probable, but the odds have climbed a lot.”

The analyst added that US President Donald Trump is not actively attempting to engineer a recession, but that the things the Trump administration is doing, including cutting federal jobs and spending to balance the budget can lead to recessions as a side effect.

Macroeconomic uncertainty is the primary cause of the recent decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY), as investors shift capital to better opportunities in European capital markets and seek an escape from the economic uncertainty currently plaguing US markets, Puckrin told Cointelegraph.

The DXY, which tracks the strength of the US dollar, took a nosedive in March 2025. Source: TradingView

Related: Timeline: How Trump tariffs dragged Bitcoin below $80K

Trade war fears drag the price of Bitcoin down

President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners sent a shockwave through the crypto markets, leading to a steep decline in altcoin prices and a 24% correction in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price from the Jan. 20 high of over $109,000.

The tariffs and fears of a prolonged trade war also reoriented market sentiment toward extreme fear — a sharp contrast from the euphoric highs felt after the re-election of Donald Trump in the United States in November 2025 and the January 20 inauguration.

The price of Bitcoin has been struggling amid the trade war headlines and is currently trading below its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Source: TradingView

According to Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard, crypto markets will feel the pressure of tariffs until April 2025.

If countries can successfully negotiate an end to the tariffs or the Trump administration softens its stance then markets will recover, the analyst added.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen recently said that BTC formed a price bottom in March 2025, as US President Donald Trump softened the rhetoric around trade tariffs — signaling a potential price reversal.

Magazine: Bitcoiners are ‘all in’ on Trump since Bitcoin ’24, but it’s getting risky

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Blockchain Association CEO will move to Solana advocacy group

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Kristin Smith, CEO of the US-based Blockchain Association, will be leaving the cryptocurrency advocacy group for the recently launched Solana Policy Institute.

In an April 1 notice, the Blockchain Association (BA) said Smith would be stepping down from her role as CEO on May 16. According to the association, the soon-to-be former CEO will become president of the Solana Policy Institute on May 19.

The association’s notice did not provide an apparent reason for the move to the Solana advocacy organization nor say who would lead the group after Smith’s departure. Cointelegraph reached out to the Blockchain Association for comment but did not receive a response at the time of publication.

Blockchain Association CEO Kristin Smith’s April 1 announcement. Source: LinkedIn

Smith, who has worked at the BA since 2018 and was deputy chief of staff for former Montana Representative Denny Rehberg, will follow DeFi Education Fund CEO Miller Whitehouse-Levine, leaving his position to join the Solana Policy Institute as CEO. According to Whitehouse-Levine, the organization plans to educate US policymakers on Solana.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

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APX Lending gains exemptive relief from Canadian Securities Administration

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APX Lending, a crypto-backed loan company, has gained exemptive relief from the Canadian Securities Administration (CSA) to offer crypto-backed loans without requiring traditional dealer registration or prospectus filings.

“Over the last 2 years, APX developed a […] regulatory framework in collaboration with the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) to facilitate this, as no such framework previously existed in Canada,” a spokesperson for APX told Cointelegraph. “This exemption is specific to APX and does not establish a precedent for other companies.”

The platform currently supports Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as backing collateral for loans in Canadian or US dollars. APX plans to add more digital assets and fiat currencies options in the near future.

The company claims to be expanding its reach to the United States, with future expansions planned for Australia and New Zealand pending regulatory approval. Andrei Poliakov, founder and CEO of APX Lending, said in a statement:

“By engaging with Canadian regulators and leading the way in Canada, we are setting a new benchmark for compliance and security in crypto-backed lending, helping retail and institutional borrowers unlock liquidity while maintaining ownership of their digital assets.”

APX loans range from 20%-60% loan-to-value (LTV), with an automated liquidation mechanism triggered at 90% if no corrective action is taken by the borrower to top up collateral or partially repay the loan when LTV reaches the 80% warning level and they are notified of the potential liquidation.

Loan terms range from three months to five years, reflecting the comparatively flexible structure of crypto-backed lending versus the more rigid and often less accessible options found in traditional financial systems.

APX Lending is registered with the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC). Its key competitors in the local market include Ledn, Nexo, and YouHodler, among others.

APX Lending founder and CEO Andrei Poliakov onstage at the Blockchain Futurist Conference in 2024. Source: Blockchain Futurist Conference

Related: What Canada’s new Liberal PM Mark Carney means for crypto

Canada’s shifting political landscape could spell trouble for crypto regulations

Recently elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is a former central banker who once criticized Bitcoin for being supply-capped, calling the 21 million maximum supply a “serious deficiency.”

In a speech to the Scottish Economics Conference at Edinburgh University in March 2018, Carney said: “Recreating a virtual global gold standard would be a criminal act of monetary amnesia.”

Carney’s critical view of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may influence the direction of regulation in Canada and raise uncertainty about the future of the country’s crypto industry.

However, Carney’s 2025 platform outlined goals to make Canada a global leader in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and “digital industries” amid increasing geopolitical competition and trade tensions with the United States.

Magazine: Home loans using crypto as collateral: Do the risks outweigh the reward?

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GoMining launches $100M Bitcoin mining fund for institutional investors

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GoMining, a platform that allows users to mine Bitcoin (BTC) through data centers, is launching a $100 million Bitcoin mining fund for institutional investors. Custodied by Bitgo, the fund promises annual distributions from mining yield and a strategy that focuses on Bitcoin rewards and reinvestment.

GoMining’s Alpha Blocks Fund comes as more companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, capturing enthusiasm surrounding the resurgence of the world’s top cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Companies that have done so, including Japan’s Metaplanet and medical technology company Semler Scientific, have seen their stock prices increase.

“Unlike passive equity investments, the Alpha Blocks Fund offers direct exposure to mined Bitcoin via a fully managed, compounding hashrate strategy,” a GoMining spokesperson told Cointelegraph.

“BTC rewards are reinvested to increase the fund’s hashrate and improve miner efficiency — creating real, yield-driven outcomes. Our model is built for performance, not market sentiment, and integrates utility-based advantages that listed mining companies typically don’t offer.”

According to a press release shared with Cointelegraph, GoMining Institutional operates with 7.3 Exahash of active hash power.

Related: Is cryptocurrency mining still profitable in 2025?

“This framework ensures compliance with relevant regulatory requirements and supports our focus on delivering institutional-grade exposure to Bitcoin mining yield strategies,” said the spokesperson, adding that retail users can access a separate digital mining product.

The fund will charge a 2% flat annual management fee, with no performance fees applied.

While GoMining’s Bitcoin fund caters to institutional investors, its flagship product is geared toward retail miners who may lack the funds to create a heavy-duty mining rig. In 2024, it revealed an attempt to gamify Bitcoin mining through the use of non-fungible tokens.

Institutional investment in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH) has been on the rise since 2024, when the first cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds were launched in the United States.

Regulatory clarity from Europe’s MiCA and the enthusiasm for digital assets in the United States might be changing institutional investors’ skepticism about cryptocurrencies. In March 2025, a report by Coinbase revealed that 83% of institutions are planning a crypto allocation.

Magazine: AI may already use more power than Bitcoin — and it threatens Bitcoin mining

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