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‘Our GPUs are melting’ — OpenAI puts limiter in after Ghibli-tsunami

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ChatGPT creators OpenAI have introduced rate limits after a viral social media trend that saw nearly everything “Ghiblifyied” — turned into AI art in the style of the famous Japanese animation studio. 

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was one of the first to take part in the trend, posting a portrait of himself generated by the model on March 25 but said in a subsequent post two days later that all image requests have started to tax the firm’s infrastructure.

“It’s super fun seeing people love images in ChatGPT but our GPUs are melting. We are going to temporarily introduce some rate limits while we work on making it more efficient,” he said.

Source: Sam Altman

“Also, we are refusing some generations that should be allowed; we are fixing these as fast we can,” he added.

OpenAI launched the upgraded image generation offering in ChatGPT-4o on March 25, resulting in users splashing images across social media in the art style of Studio Ghibli — known for its anime films Spirited Away and My Neighbor Totoro.

Altman didn’t give a definitive timeline on how long the rate limits would last but said, “Hopefully, it won’t be long! ChatGPT free tier will get three generations per day soon.”

Rate limits are generally applied to help OpenAI manage the aggregate load on its infrastructure, according to OpenAI. 

Related: Ghibli memecoins surge as internet flooded with Studio Ghibli-style AI images

“If requests to the API increase dramatically, it could tax the servers and cause performance issues. By setting rate limits, OpenAI can help maintain a smooth and consistent experience for all users,” OpenAI says on its rate limit explanation page.

Along with the legions of others getting in on the trend, X and Tesla CEO Elon Musk shared an image mimicking King Mufasa from Disney’s The Lion King holding up a Shiba Inu. 

White House AI and crypto czar David Sacks also joined in, using the Studio Ghibli-art style on an image of himself at an event.

Source: David Sacks

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported on March 26 that OpenAI expects to more than triple its revenue this year to $12.7 billion, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Altman said on Feb. 12 his firm wants to ship GPT-4.5 and GPT-5 in the coming weeks or months.

Magazine: ‘Chernobyl’ needed to wake people to AI risks, Studio Ghibli memes: AI Eye

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Coin Market

Coinbase users hit by $46M in suspected phishing scams — ZachXBT

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Coinbase users may have lost as much as $46 million to suspected phishing scams over the past two weeks as rising crypto prices continue to attract bad actors to the industry.

Scams such as address poisoning and wallet spoofing involve tricking victims into sending assets to fraudulent wallet addresses that closely resemble legitimate ones.

According to blockchain investigator ZachXBT, multiple Coinbase-linked wallets have been targeted this month. A screenshot from blockchain explorer Blockchair shows a suspected 400 Bitcoin (BTC) theft from a single wallet address.

“It is suspected a Coinbase user was scammed yesterday for $34.9M (400.099 BTC),” the investigator wrote in a March 28 Telegram post. “After uncovering this theft I noticed multiple other suspected thefts from Coinbase users in the past two weeks bringing the total stolen this month to $46M+,” he added.

Suspected 400 BTC phishing theft victim. Source: Blockchair

“We are aware of ZachXTB’s claims and are investigating,” Jaclyn Sales, director of communications at Coinbase, told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Coinbase will never call you or ask for your login credentials, API key or two-factor authentication codes. We will also never ask you to transfer funds.”

“If someone contacts you claiming to be from Coinbase and requests this information or asks you to transfer assets, do not do it. It is a scam,” she said.

Related: Security concerns slow crypto payment adoption worldwide — Survey

Scammers continue to impersonate top brands

Scammers often impersonate large global brands to create a false sense of trust with victims.

US brands are often impersonated by scammers. Source: Mailsuite

In the crypto industry, Coinbase was the most impersonated brand by scammers, but Meta was targeted by over 25 times as many scammers as the cryptocurrency exchange, Cointelegraph reported in June 2024.

Coinbase is the world’s third-largest centralized cryptocurrency exchange (CEX), with over $1.6 billion of daily crypto trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap.

To protect themselves, Coinbase users are advised to use a dedicated email account, enable two-factor authentication, set up an address allowlist, and use Coinbase Vault for additional security, the exchange said in a February blog post.

Related: Sophisticated crypto address poisoning scams drain $1.2M in March

History of phishing losses at Coinbase

Over $65 million may have been stolen from Coinbase users between December 2024 and January 2025 in “high confidence thefts,” ZachXBT said in a Feb. 3 X post. He added:

“Our number is likely much lower than the actual amount stolen as our data was limited to my DMs and thefts we discovered on-chain which does not account for Coinbase support tickets and police reports we do not have access to.”

Source: ZachXBT

Pig butchering scams are another type of phishing scheme involving prolonged and complex manipulation tactics to trick investors into willingly sending their assets to fraudulent crypto addresses.

Pig butchering schemes on the Ethereum network cost the industry over $5.5 billion across 200,000 identified cases in 2024, according to Cyvers.

Magazine: Bitcoiner sex trap extortion? BTS firm’s blockchain disaster: Asia Express

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How to file crypto taxes in the US (2024–2025 tax season)

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Key takeaways

US crypto investors must file their 2024 tax returns by April 15, 2025, ensuring all crypto transactions are accurately reported to the IRS.

Crypto held for less than a year is taxed as ordinary income (10%-37%), while holdings over a year qualify for lower capital gains rates (0%, 15%, or 20%).

Selling, trading, or spending crypto triggers taxes, while holding or transferring between wallets does not.

Mining, staking, airdrops, and crypto payments are taxed as income at applicable rates.

The world of cryptocurrencies can indeed be an exciting space for investors, but as the tax season approaches, many US investors find themselves grappling with confusion and uncertainty. 

With the upcoming tax filing deadline of April 15, 2025, it’s a critical time to get a handle on crypto tax obligations. Ask most US crypto investors, and they’ll likely tell you that figuring out what transactions trigger a taxable event feels like navigating a maze.

Understanding various aspects of tax filing is crucial for accurately filing taxes, avoiding penalties and staying compliant with the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). This article breaks down key elements like tax brackets, rates, exemptions and other critical details. 

How does the IRS tax crypto?

The Internal Revenue Service, the agency responsible for collecting US federal taxes, treats cryptocurrencies as property for tax purposes. You pay taxes on gains realized when selling, trading or disposing of cryptocurrencies. For short-term capital gains (held less than a year), you pay taxes at the rates of 10%–37%, depending on your income bracket. 

Long-term capital gains (assets held for over a year) benefit from reduced rates of 0%, 15% or 20%, also based on your taxable income.

When you dispose of cryptocurrency for more than its purchase price, you generate a capital gain. Conversely, selling below the purchase price results in a capital loss. You must report both your capital gains and losses for the year in which the transaction occurs, with gains being taxable and losses potentially offsetting gains to reduce your tax liability. 

With the upcoming April 15, 2025, deadline for filing 2024 tax returns, US crypto investors need to ensure these transactions are accurately tracked and reported.

To illustrate, suppose you purchased Ether (ETH) worth $1,000 in 2023 and sold it after a year in 2024 for $1,200, netting a $200 profit. The IRS would tax that $200 as a long-term capital gain, applying the appropriate rate based on your 2024 income.

Taxes are categorized as capital gains tax or income tax, depending on the type of transactions:

Capital gains tax: Applies to selling crypto, using crypto to purchase goods or services, or trading one cryptocurrency for another.

Income tax: Applies to crypto earned through mining, staking, receiving it as payment for work, or referral bonuses from exchanges.

These distinctions are crucial for accurate reporting by the April 15 deadline. Gains are taxed, while losses can help offset taxable income, so detailed record-keeping is a must.

Did you know? In Australia, gifting cryptocurrency triggers a capital gains tax (CGT) event. The giver may need to report gains or losses based on the asset’s market value at the time of transfer, though certain gifts — like those between spouses — may qualify for exemptions. While this differs from US rules, it highlights how crypto taxation varies globally.

How crypto tax rates work in the US

In the US, your crypto tax rate depends on your income and how long you’ve held the cryptocurrency. Long-term capital gains tax rates range from 0% to 20%, and short-term rates align with ordinary income tax rates of 10%–37%. Transferring crypto between your own wallets or selling it at a loss doesn’t trigger a tax liability.

You only owe taxes when you sell your crypto, whether for cash or for any other cryptocurrency. Consider this example: Suppose you bought crypto for $1,000 in 2024, and by 2025, its value rose to $2,000. If you don’t sell, no tax is due — unrealized gains aren’t taxable.

If you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for a year or less, your profits are subject to short-term capital gains tax. These gains are taxed as ordinary income, meaning they are added to your total taxable earnings for the year. 

Tax rates are progressive, based on income brackets, so different portions of your income are taxed at different rates. For instance, a single filer in 2025 pays 10% on the first $11,000 of taxable income and 12% on income up to $44,725. Short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, so timing your sales can significantly impact your tax bill.

Understanding crypto capital gains tax in the US

If you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for a year or less, your profits are subject to short-term capital gains tax. These gains are treated as ordinary income and added to your total taxable earnings for the year. Since tax rates are based on income brackets, different portions of your earnings are taxed at different rates, as explained above. 

2024–2025 federal income tax brackets for crypto earnings

Here are the federal income tax rates for the 2024–2025 tax year. You apply the 2024 tax brackets to income earned in the 2024 calendar year, reported on tax returns filed in 2025.

Long-term capital gains tax for crypto earned in 2024

You pay long-term capital gains tax if you sell cryptocurrency after holding it for more than a year. Unlike short-term gains, these aren’t taxed as ordinary income. Instead, tax rates are based on your total taxable income and filing status. Long-term capital gains tax rates are 0%, 15% or 20%, making them lower than short-term rates. Holding crypto longer can reduce your tax burden significantly.

Here is a table outlining long-term crypto capital gains tax for the calendar year 2024. These rates are applicable when filing tax returns in 2025.

2024–2025 standard deduction: Reduce your crypto taxable income

The standard deduction is the portion of your income that’s exempt from federal taxes before tax rates are applied, reducing your taxable income.

Here is a table regarding tax deductions in the calendar year 2024. These amounts are applicable when filing for tax returns in 2025.

How are crypto airdrops taxed in the US?

In the US, crypto airdrops are treated as ordinary income by the IRS and taxed at the time they come under the taxpayer’s full control. The taxable amount is based on the tokens’ fair market value at that moment, even if the taxpayer didn’t request them. Later, selling or trading those tokens may trigger capital gains tax, depending on the price difference between receipt and disposal.

The taxable event hinges on control: If tokens automatically appear in a taxpayer’s wallet, the income is typically recognized upon arrival. If the tokens require manual claiming (e.g., through a transaction), the taxable event occurs when the claim is completed. Either way, the fair market value at that point determines the income reported.

When the taxpayer sells or trades the airdropped tokens, they incur a capital gain or loss, calculated as the difference between the value at receipt (the basis) and the value at sale or trade. Moreover, the holding periods matter: If sold within a year, gains are taxed at ordinary income rates (10%–37%, based on income brackets). If held longer than a year, gains qualify for lower long-term capital gains rates (0%, 15% or 20%, depending on income). Proper tracking of receipt dates and values is essential for accurate tax reporting.

Crypto gifting rules and tax implications in the US

In the US, gifting cryptocurrency is generally not a taxable event for either the giver or the recipient, meaning no immediate tax is owed. However, specific thresholds and reporting requirements must be followed to stay compliant with IRS rules. 

For the 2024 tax year (filed by April 15, 2025), if the total value of crypto gifts to a single recipient exceeds $18,000, the giver must file a gift tax return using Form 709. 

When the recipient eventually sells the gifted cryptocurrency, they’ll calculate capital gains or losses based on the giver’s original cost basis — the price the giver paid for the crypto. If this cost basis isn’t documented or available, the recipient may need to assume a basis of $0, which could increase their taxable gain upon sale. To avoid complications, both parties should keep detailed records of the gift’s fair market value at the time of transfer and the giver’s original cost basis.

Did you know? In the UK, giving cryptocurrency as a gift may result in capital gains tax for the giver, except for gifts to spouses or civil partners. Additionally, inheritance tax could apply if the giver dies within seven years of the gift.

Essential forms for filing crypto taxes in 2024

With the April 15, 2025, deadline nearing, here are the key forms for reporting 2024 crypto transactions:

Form 8949: For reporting capital gains and losses from crypto sales, trades and disposals. Each transaction must be listed individually.

Schedule D (Form 1040): Summarizes total capital gains and losses from Form 8949; used for calculating taxable income.

Schedule 1 (Form 1040): Reports additional income, including staking rewards, airdrops and hard forks, if classified as taxable income.

Schedule C (Form 1040): Used by self-employed individuals or businesses to report crypto-related income from mining, consulting or freelance work.

Form 1099-MISC: Issued for staking, mining or payment income over $600

Form 1040: The main return form to combine income, deductions and tax liability.

FBAR (FinCEN Form 114): File separately if foreign crypto accounts exceeded $10,000 in 2024.

Step-by-step guide to filing crypto taxes for the 2024–2025 tax season

Here’s how to file, step by step, leveraging the detailed tax rates and forms outlined above.

Step 1: Gather all crypto transaction records

Collect records for every 2024 crypto transaction:

Dates of buying, selling, trading or receiving crypto

Amounts (e.g., 0.5 Bitcoin) and US dollar fair market value (FMV) at the time

Cost basis (what you paid, including fees) and proceeds (what you received).

To ensure complete records, pull data from wallets, exchanges (e.g., Coinbase) and blockchain explorers. Export transaction histories or CSVs, and note staking rewards, airdrops or mining income separately with their FMV on receipt.

Step 2: Identify taxable events

Pinpoint which 2024 actions trigger taxes:

Taxable: Selling crypto for cash/stablecoins, trading crypto, spending crypto or earning it (mining, staking, airdrops).

Non-taxable: Buying and holding with USD, moving crypto between your wallets, gifting up to $18,000 per recipient.

Classify each taxable event as short-term (≤1 year) or long-term (>1 year) for rate purposes.

Step 3: Calculate capital gains and losses

For taxable sales or trades:

Formula: Proceeds (FMV at disposal) – Cost Basis = Gain/Loss

Example: Bought 1 Ether (ETH) for $2,000 in May 2024, sold for $2,500 in November 2024 = $500 short-term gain.

Use first-in, first-out or specific identification for cost basis (be consistent). Sum your net gains/losses. See the “2024 Federal Income Tax Brackets” section for how these are taxed.

Step 4: Calculate crypto income

For earnings (mining, staking, airdrops):

Record FMV in USD when received (e.g., 10 Cardano worth $5 on June 1, 2024 = $5 income).

Add to your other 2024 income to set your tax bracket, detailed in the sections above.

Step 5: Apply the 2024 standard deduction

Lower your taxable income with the standard deduction:

Single: $14,600

Married filing jointly: $29,200

Head of household: $21,900

Subtract this from total income (including short-term gains and crypto income). Long-term gains are taxed separately.

Step 6: Determine your tax rates

Apply rates to your gains and income (refer to “How Crypto Tax Rates Work in 2024”):

Short-term gains and income: Ordinary rates (10%–37%).

Long-term gains: 0%, 15% or 20%, based on income.

Offset gains with losses (up to $3,000 net loss against other income; carry forward excess).

Step 7: Complete the necessary tax forms

Fill out the required IRS forms (see “Essential Forms for Filing Crypto Taxes in 2024”):

List capital gains/losses and income on Form 8949, Schedule D and Schedule 1 as applicable.

Use Schedule C if self-employed (e.g., mining business).

Combine everything on Form 1040.

Check Form 1099-MISC if received and file FBAR for foreign accounts over $10,000.

Step 8: File your return by April 15, 2025

Submit via IRS e-file or mail, postmarked by April 15, 2025. 

Need more time? File Form 4868 for an extension to Oct. 15, 2025, but pay estimated taxes by April 15 to avoid penalties.

Step 9: Pay any taxes owed

Estimate your tax from Step 6, then pay via IRS Direct Pay or check. Late payments after April 15 incur a 0.5% monthly penalty plus interest.

Step 10: Keep records for audits

Store transaction records and forms for three to six years. The IRS is intensifying crypto scrutiny — be prepared.

Did you know? In Canada, giving cryptocurrency as a gift is generally considered a taxable disposition, requiring the giver to determine and report any capital gains or losses.

Important dates and deadlines for 2024–2025 tax season and beyond 

Here are important dates regarding the 2024–2025 tax season and 2025 transition:

2024 tax season

Jan. 31, 2025: Some exchanges may issue voluntary 1099s (e.g., 1099-MISC).

April 15, 2025: File taxes on crypto earned in 2024.

2025 transition

Jan. 1, 2025: Form 1099-DA reporting begins.

Dec. 31, 2025: Safe harbor ends for adjusting universal cost basis.

Jan. 31, 2026: Receive Form 1099-DA for 2025 trades.

Quarterly estimates

June 15, Sept. 15, 2025, etc., for active traders.

New IRS crypto tax rules for 2025: What you need to know

The IRS introduced new rules for tax filing and reporting aimed at US cryptocurrency taxpayers, but these regulations have encountered significant pushback. Both the US Senate and House of Representatives voted to repeal them under the Congressional Review Act (CRA), and President Donald Trump has signaled support for the rollback. Despite this uncertainty, understanding these rules remains crucial, especially with deadlines looming in 2025.

A core component of the new rules is calculating taxes using a cost basis — the original amount invested in an asset, including fees or commissions. Accurately tracking cost basis is vital for proper tax reporting and prevents double taxation on reinvested earnings. It’s the starting point for determining capital gains or losses. 

Under the updated IRS guidelines, crypto investors must now track the cost basis (original purchase price) separately for each account or wallet, moving away from a universal tracking approach. This requires recording the purchase date, acquisition cost and specific transaction details.

The rules also mandate specific identification for every digital asset sale, requiring taxpayers to report the exact purchase date, quantity and cost of the assets sold. If this information isn’t provided, the IRS defaults to the first-in, first-out (FIFO) method — selling your earliest coins first — which could inflate taxable gains if those initial purchases had lower costs. 

For taxpayers previously using a universal cost basis method, the IRS requires reallocating their basis across all accounts or wallets accurately by Dec. 31, 2025, to comply with these standards.

Form 1099-DA: What to expect for crypto taxes in 2025–2026

As of March 27, 2025, Form 1099-DA is set to become a pivotal tool for the 2025–2026 tax season, simplifying how cryptocurrency transactions are reported in the US. This new form, tailored specifically for digital assets, will be issued by exchanges to both taxpayers and the IRS, providing a detailed breakdown of activities like sales, trades and other taxable crypto events from 2025. 

It’s designed to streamline compliance and bolster IRS oversight, reflecting the agency’s growing focus on tracking digital asset income. For taxpayers, it promises easier, more accurate reporting, while exchanges take on a larger role in tax documentation. 

For the 2024 tax year — due by April 15, 2025 — this form isn’t yet available; filers must still rely on existing forms like Form 1099-MISC until Form 1099-DA officially takes effect for 2025 earnings.

IRS crypto tax penalties: What happens if you don’t report or under-report in 2024?

US taxpayers who fail to meet their tax obligations may face penalties from the IRS. When tax obligations go unmet, the IRS sends a notice or letter detailing the penalty, its reason (e.g., late filing, non-payment or inaccurate reporting) and your next steps. 

Penalties vary: 

Late filing or non-payment can incur fines up to 25% of the unpaid tax, plus interest that accrues until settled. 

Other triggers — like bounced checks or fraudulent claims — add further costs, and the IRS may launch an audit to scrutinize your filings.

Individuals may face penalties of up to $100,000 and criminal sanctions, including imprisonment for up to five years. 

Corporations can be fined up to $500,000.

These stakes are high, especially as the IRS ramps up crypto enforcement in 2024. To dodge these consequences, double-check any notice for accuracy and act fast: Request a filing extension with Form 4868 if needed (due by April 15, 2025), arrange a payment plan for unaffordable penalties, or dispute the penalty if you believe it’s unjustified. Prompt action can save you from escalating costs and legal headaches.

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Worst Q1 for BTC price since 2018: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

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Bitcoin (BTC) limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms.

BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US trade tariffs weigh on risk-asset sentiment.

Crypto traders’ tariff woes focus on April 2, dubbed  “Liberation Day” by US President Donald Trump, while gold heads higher.

Despite the doom and gloom, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March, while Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years.

Profitability currently points the way to a bull market drawdown with no realistic bottom in sight.

The Coinbase Premium puts up a fight amid the price dip, suggesting that panic sellers have already exited.

BTC price: “Bearish engulfing” sets the tone

Bitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes.

A recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000.

The lowest levels in two weeks at about $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.

“In LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,” trader CrypNuevo responded on X. 

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.”

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Fellow trading account HTL-NL noted a “bearish engulfing” candle on the weekly chart.

“Let’s see if it plays out,” he told X followers.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL/X

The picture on longer timeframes, per trading resource Barchart, is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves.

Bitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called “death crosses,” it warned prior to the Wall Street open, as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.

“What if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we’ve seen many times before?” Barchart queried.

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

A look at exchange order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price. 

Continuing, CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

“Seeing some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA which always leads to an aggressive move,” he observed. 

“It might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It’s also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

D-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught

US employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.

Job openings, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2.

This may be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report, crypto remains highly sensitive to tariff news, with Trump giving mixed messages as to which measures will ultimately come into force.

In a dedicated X thread on the topic, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that tariffs may impact about $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month.

“President Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named ‘Liberation Day’ where widespread new tariffs are coming,” it wrote. 

“We believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.”

US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Kobeissi pointed to unusually high levels of market uncertainty, as represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.

With many a surprise to come, market commentators are not the only ones in “wait and see” mode.

April 4 will see Fed Chair Powell take to the stage with a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia.

Earlier this month, Powell said that while it was not easy to pin inflation pressures on tariffs, he was in no hurry to lower interest rates — the key move awaited by risk-asset traders.

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed’s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Bitcoin rounds off a limp Q1

As both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at a distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance.

Data from CoinGlass shows BTC/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.

BTC/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Conditions have worsened for hodlers thanks to gold outperforming as a safe-haven bet, hitting repeated all-time highs while BTC/USD fell 30% from its January peak.

That bull market correction, however, remains fairly standard in a historical perspective. Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets passed 60%.

“This cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,” it acknowledged in February.

Bitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: Glassnode

Others agree that despite the frustrating lack of further price upside, Bitcoin has weathered the macroeconomic storm fairly well.

“Overall quarter not horrible,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized about the CoinGlass figures this weekend.

On a monthly basis, the picture remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios — 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year.

BTC/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

MVRV Ratio lacks “definitive bottom signal”

A key Bitcoin price metric continues to give off warning signals this week as the market flushes out “overheated” conditions.

The market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market cap to realized cap to determine short-term and long-term profitability, is trending back toward its long-term average.

In early March, the tool printed a so-called “death cross” — its short-term moving average crossed below a long-term equivalent, in keeping with the profit drawdown sparked by Bitcoin’s descent below $80,000.

“Much like in previous cycles, this cross was followed by a price decline after Bitcoin hit a local peak, reinforcing the MVRV’s effectiveness as a market sentiment indicator,” Yonsei Dent, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 30.

“With the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.” 

Bitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Dent suggested that while current behavior mimics past BTC price cycles, market participants “should remain cautious of further downside risk.”

Last month, analysis predicted that Bitcoin still has room for fresh all-time highs on longer timeframes, based on MVRV ratio data.

Coinbase traders keep the faith

The return of the Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow this quarter as episodes of panic selling characterized recent market behavior.

Related: $65K Bitcoin price targets pile up as ‘Spoofy the Whale’ buys the dip

The Premium, which is the difference in spot price between the Coinbase BTC/USD and Binance BTC/USDT pairs, currently hovers around neutral.

While unremarkable in and of itself, the metric’s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure caught the eye of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon.

“Panic selling is decreasing,” he concluded in another Quicktake post this weekend.

A positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure and is traditionally a key ingredient in sustainable Bitcoin bull markets.

Meanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sunmoon to suspect a “possible trend reversal.”

Bitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuant

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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