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$16.5B in Bitcoin options expire on Friday — Will BTC price soar above $90K?

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Bitcoin (BTC) investors are preparing for the record-breaking $16.5 billion monthly options expiry on March 28. However, the actual market impact is expected to be more limited, as BTC’s drop below $90,000 caught investors off guard and invalidated many bullish positions. 

This shift gives Bitcoin bears a crucial opportunity to escape a potential $3 billion loss, a factor that could significantly influence market dynamics in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin options open interest for March 28, USD. Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, the total open interest for call (buy) options stands at $10.5 billion, while put (sell) options lag at $6 billion. However, $7.6 billion of these calls are set at $92,000 or higher, meaning Bitcoin would need a 6.4% gain from its current price to make them viable by the March 28 expiry. As a result, the advantage for bullish bets has significantly weakened.

Bitcoin bulls pray for a “decoupling” if QE restarts 

Some analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weak performance to the ongoing global tariff war and US government spending cuts, which increase the risk of an economic recession. Traders worry about slower growth, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which had driven the S&P 500 to a record high on Feb. 19 before falling 7%.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls remain hopeful for a decoupling from the stock market, despite the 40-day correlation staying above 70% since early March. Their optimism stems from the expansion of the monetary base by central banks and increased Bitcoin adoption by companies such as GameStop (GME), Rumble (RUM), Metaplanet (TYO:3350), and Semler Scientific (SMLR).

As the options expiry date nears, bulls and bears each have a strong incentive to influence Bitcoin’s spot price. However, while bullish investors aim for levels above $92,000, their optimism alone is not enough to ensure BTC surpasses this mark. Deribit leads the options market with a 74% share, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) at 8.5% and Binance at 8%.

Given the current market dynamics, Bitcoin bulls hold a strategic advantage heading into the monthly options expiry. For instance, if Bitcoin remains at $86,500 by 8:00 am UTC on March 28, only $2 billion worth of put (sell) options will be in play. This situation incentivizes bears to drive Bitcoin below $84,000, which would increase the value of active put options to $2.6 billion.

Related: Would GameStop buying Bitcoin help BTC price hit $200K?

Bitcoin bulls will have the edge if BTC price passes $90,000

Below are five probable scenarios based on current price trends. These outcomes estimate theoretical profits based on open interest imbalances but exclude complex strategies, such as selling put options to gain upside price exposure.

Between $81,000 and $85,000: $2.7 billion in calls (buy) vs. $2.6 billion in puts (sell). The net result favors the call instruments by $100 million.

Between $85,000 and $88,000: $3.3 billion calls vs. $2 billion puts, favoring calls by $1.3 billion.

Between $88,000 and $90,000: $3.4 billion calls vs. $1.8 billion puts. favoring calls by $1.6 billion.

Between $90,000 and $92,000: $4.4 billion calls vs. $1.4 billion puts, favoring calls by $3 billion.

To minimize losses, bears must push Bitcoin below $84,000—a 3% drop—before the March 28 expiry. This move would increase the value of put (sell) options, strengthening their position. 

Conversely, bulls can maximize their gains by driving BTC above $90,000, which could create enough momentum to establish a bullish trend for April, especially if inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) resume at a strong pace.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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First Digital redeems $26M after FDUSD depeg, dismisses Sun insolvency claims

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First Digital has redeemed almost $26 million in stablecoin withdrawals after its FDUSD token briefly lost its US dollar peg following allegations of insolvency by Tron founder Justin Sun.

First Digital USD (FDUSD) depegged on April 2, briefly falling as low as $0.87 after Sun claimed that First Digital was insolvent.

On April 4, Sun doubled down on his allegations, claiming the firm transferred over $450 million of customer funds to a Dubai-based entity and that it violated Hong Kong securities regulations.

Source: H.E. Justin Sun

“FDT transferred $456 million of its custodial clients to a private company in Dubai without their authorization and has not yet returned the money,” Sun claimed.

Despite the claims, blockchain data from Etherscan shows First Digital has honored approximately $25.8 million in FDUSD redemptions since the incident.

FDUSD redemptions. Source: Etherscan 

“We continue to process redemptions smoothly, demonstrating the fortitude of $FDUSD,” noted First Digital in an April 3 X post.

When users redeem FDUSD for US dollars, the corresponding amount of FDUSD is burned onchain for the stablecoin to maintain a 1-to-1 peg with the US dollar and ensure the circulating supply matches reserves.

Related: Wintermute transfers $75M FDUSD since depegs, in $3M arbitrage opportunity

Following Sun’s claims, First Digital assured users that it is solvent and that FDUSD remains fully backed and redeemable.

Source: First Digital

“First Digital stands firm: Justin Sun’s baseless accusations won’t distract from Techteryx’s own failures— our stablecoin FDUSD remains fully backed and solvent,” First Digital stated in an April 3 X post.

Related: Bitcoin price can hit $250K in 2025 if Fed shifts to QE: Arthur Hayes

Stablecoin depegs “greater systemic risk” than Bitcoin crash

Stablecoins depegs pose “a greater systemic risk” to crypto than a Bitcoin (BTC) crash, as “stablecoins are integral to liquidity, DeFi and user trust,” according to Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget.

Stablecoin depegs can cause “cascading failures like the TerraUSD collapse in 2022,” Chen told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Current transparency, collateral quality and accountability among leading stablecoin issuers are insufficient — Tether’s lack of full audits, USDC’s exposure to banking risks and algorithmic stablecoins’ fragility highlight the market’s vulnerability to the next depeg event.”

“To mitigate risks, the market should enforce real-time audits, prioritize high-quality collateral like US Treasurys, strengthen regulatory oversight and diversify stablecoin usage to reduce reliance on a few dominant players,” Chen added.

In May 2022, the $40 billion Terra ecosystem collapsed, erasing tens of billions of dollars of value in days. Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin, TerraUSD (UST), had yielded an over 20% annual percentage yield (APY) on Anchor Protocol before its collapse.

As UST lost its dollar peg, crashing to a low of around $0.30, Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon took to X (then Twitter) to share his rescue plan. At the same time, the value of sister token LUNA — once a top 10 crypto project by market capitalization — plunged over 98% to $0.84. LUNA was trading north of $120 in early April 2022.

Magazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over — It’s time to dream big again

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Malta regulator fines OKX crypto exchange $1.2M for past AML breaches

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Cryptocurrency exchange OKX is under renewed regulatory scrutiny in Europe after Maltese authorities issued a major fine for violations of Anti-Money Laundering (AML) laws.

Malta’s Financial Intelligence Analysis Unit (FIAU) fined Okcoin Europe — OKX’s Europe-based subsidiary — 1.1 million euros ($1.2 million) after detecting multiple AML failures on the platform in the past, the authority announced on April 3.

While admitting that OKX has significantly improved its AML policies in the past 18 months, the authority “could not ignore” its past compliance failures from 2023, “some of which were deemed to be serious and systematic,” the FIAU notice said.

OKX was among the first crypto exchanges to receive a license under Europe’s new Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation via its Malta hub in January 2025.

The news of the $1.2 million penalty in Malta came after Bloomberg in March reported that European Union regulators were probing OKX for laundering $100 million in funds from the Bybit hack.

Bybit CEO Ben Zhou previously claimed that OKX’s Web3 proxy allowed hackers to launder about $100 million, or 40,233 Ether (ETH), from the $1.5 billion hack that occurred in February.

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Magazine: Stablecoin for cyber-scammers launches, Sony L2 drama: Asia Express

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Trump tariffs squeeze already struggling Bitcoin miners — Braiins exec

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The new trade tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump may place added pressure on the Bitcoin mining ecosystem both domestically and globally, according to one industry executive.

While the US is home to Bitcoin (BTC) mining manufacturing firms such as Auradine, it’s still “not possible to make the whole supply chain, including materials, US-based,” Kristian Csepcsar, chief marketing officer at BTC mining tech provider Braiins, told Cointelegraph.

On April 2, Trump announced sweeping tariffs, imposing a 10% tariff on all countries that export to the US and introducing “reciprocal” levies targeting America’s key trading partners.

Community members have debated the potential effects of the tariffs on Bitcoin, with some saying their impact has been overstated, while others see them as a significant threat.

Tariffs compound existing mining challenges

Csepcsar said the mining industry is already experiencing tough times, pointing to key indicators like the BTC hashprice.

Hashprice — a measure of a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hash power spent to mine BTC blocks — has been on the decline since 2022 and dropped to all-time lows of $50 for the first time in 2024.

According to data from Bitbo, the BTC hashprice was still hovering around all-time low levels of $53 on March 30.

Bitcoin hashprice since late 2013. Source: Bitbo

“Hashprice is the key metric miners follow to understand their bottom line. It is how many dollars one terahash makes a day. A key profitability metric, and it is at all-time lows, ever,” Csepcsar said.

He added that mining equipment tariffs were already increasing under the Biden administration in 2024, and cited comments from Summer Meng, general manager at Chinese crypto mining supplier Bitmars.

Source: Summer Meng

“But they keep getting stricter under Trump,” Csepcsar added, referring to companies such as the China-based Bitmain — the world’s largest ASIC manufacturer — which is subject to the new tariffs.

Trump’s latest measures include a 34% additional tariff on top of an existing 20% levy for Chinese mining imports. In response, China reportedly imposed its own retaliatory tariffs on April 4.

BTC mining firms to “lose in the short term”

Csepcsar also noted that cutting-edge chips for crypto mining are currently massively produced in countries like Taiwan and South Korea, which were hit by new 32% and 25% tariffs, respectively.

“It will take a decade for the US to catch up with cutting-edge chip manufacturing. So again, companies, including American ones, lose in the short term,” he said.

Source: jmhorp

Csepcsar also observed that some countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States region, including Russia and Kazakhstan, have been beefing up mining efforts and could potentially overtake the US in hashrate dominance.

Related: Bitcoin mining using coal energy down 43% since 2011 — Report

“If we continue to see trade war, these regions with low tariffs and more favorable mining conditions can see a major boom,” Csepcsar warned.

As the newly announced tariffs potentially hurt Bitcoin mining both globally and in the US, it may become more difficult for Trump to keep his promise of making the US the global mining leader.

Trump’s stance on crypto has shifted multiple times over the years. As his administration embraces a more pro-crypto agenda, it remains to be seen how the latest economic policies will impact his long-term strategy for digital assets.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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