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Ethereum’s (ETH) path back to $2.5K depends on 3 key factors

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Ether (ETH) price reclaimed the $2,000 support on March 24 but remains 18% below the $2,500 level seen three weeks ago. Data shows Ether has underperformed the altcoin market by 14% over the past 30 days, leading traders to question whether the altcoin can regain bullish momentum and which factors might drive a trend reversal.

Ether/USD (left) vs. total altcoin capitalization, USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Ether appears well-positioned to attract institutional demand and significantly reduce the FUD that has limited its upside potential. Critics have long argued that the Ethereum ecosystem lags behind competitors in overall user experience and still offers limited base-layer scalability, which has negatively impacted network fees and transaction efficiency. 

Will the Ethereum Pectra upgrade impact ETH price?

Many of the Ethereum network’s challenges are expected to be addressed in the upcoming Pectra network upgrade, scheduled for late April or early June. Among the proposed changes is a doubling of the data that can be included in each block, which should help lower fees for rollups and privacy-focused mechanisms. Additionally, the cost of call data will increase, encouraging developers to adopt blobs—a more efficient method for data storage.

Another notable improvement in the upcoming upgrade is the introduction of smart accounts, which allow wallets to function like smart contracts during transactions. This enables gas fee sponsorship, passkey authentication, and batch transactions. Additionally, several other enhancements focus on optimizing staking deposits and withdrawals, providing greater flexibility, and extending block history for smart contracts that rely on past data.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, set a $5,000 price target for ETH on March 25, stating that it should significantly outperform competitor Solana (SOL).

Source: CryptoHayes

Regardless of the rationale behind Arthur’s price prediction, ETH options traders do not share the same bullish sentiment. The Sept. 26 call (buy) option with a $5,000 strike price costs only $35.40, implying extremely low odds. However, Ethereum remains the undisputed leader in smart contract deposits and is the only altcoin with a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US, currently holding $8.9 billion in assets under management.

Ethereum TVL growth and reduced ETH supply on exchanges

Ethereum’s network boasts a total value locked (TVL) of $52.5 billion, significantly surpassing Solana’s $7 billion. More importantly, deposits on the Ethereum network grew 10% over the past 30 days, reaching 25.4 million ETH, while Solana saw an 8% decline over the same period. Notable highlights on Ethereum include Sky (formerly Maker), which saw a 17% increase in deposits, and Ethena, whose TVL surged by 38% in 30 days.

Ether balance on exchanges, ETH. Source: Glassnode

The Ether supply on exchanges stood at 16.9 million ETH on March 25, just 3.5% above its five-year low of 16.32 million ETH, according to Glassnode data. This trend suggests that investors are withdrawing from exchanges, signaling a long-term capital commitment. Similarly, flows into spot Ether ETFs remained relatively muted on March 24 and March 25, in contrast to the $316 million in net outflows accumulated since March 10.

Related: Ethereum devs prepare final Pectra test before mainnet launch

Lastly, the Ethereum network is gaining momentum in the Real World Asset (RWA) industry, particularly after the BlackRock BUILD fund surpassed $1.5 billion in capitalization. The Ethereum ecosystem, including its layer-2 scalability solutions, accounts for over 80% of this market, according to RWA.XYZ data, underscoring Ethereum’s dominance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

Ether’s price drop below $1,900 on March 10 likely reflected overly bearish expectations. However, the tide appears to have turned as the Ethereum network demonstrated resilience, and traders continued to withdraw from exchanges, setting the stage for a potential rally toward $2,500.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Vitalik Buterin meows at a robot, and the crypto world loses it

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A video of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin kneeling in front of a robot and seemingly letting out a “meow” sound has gone viral — and, as usual, the crypto industry is already speculating what it might mean for Ether’s future.

“The future of Ethereum is in this man’s hands… Meow,” crypto influencer Wendy O said in a March 29 X post. Cork Protocol co-founder Phil Fogel shared the video and commented that “so much” of his professional life and net worth depend on Buterin but reiterated that the entertaining interaction makes him “bullish.”

Community links video to Ether price speculation

Pseudonymous crypto trader Scott Crypto Warrior shared the video with his 514,300 X followers and said, “Pray for our ETH bags.”

The short clip shows Buterin on his knees, gesturing at a four-legged robot and letting out what sounds like a “meow” before patting it on the head. At the time of publication, Buterin has yet to address the video on social media himself.

Source: Rinor

Many of those commenting on the video allude to having Ether (ETH) in their portfolio, while its relative strength against Bitcoin (BTC) is at its lowest value in almost five years.

Crypto commentator, The Count of Monte Crypto said in a March 29 X post,” Sure, the man is free to do whatever he wants, why should we care, why should we care, however, the fact that a vast majority of my investment relies on this guy is making me a bit stressed.”

Pseudonymous crypto trader “sgp” said, “while Ethereum is doing -5% 1-minute candles, Vitalik is busy meowing at a robot.”

Source: Ali Bryant

Buterin’s quirky antics have always entertained the crypto industry. At Token2049 Singapore in September 2024, Buterin called out some “cringe” anthems for crypto projects and even started singing on stage, receiving a positive reaction from both the live audience and those on social media.

Meanwhile, since Ether reclaimed the $4,000 price level in December 2024, it has dropped nearly 55%.

At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $1,841, down 13.34% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Ether is trading at $1,841 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ether sitting below $2,000 has crypto trader Alex Becker convinced it is a prime long-term buying opportunity.

Related: Vitalik outlines strategy for scaling Ethereum and strengthening ETH

“I can’t fathom looking at a sub $2k ETH and thinking you’re not going to be in big profit sometime in the next 2 years. Easiest asset trade in biblical history right now,” Becker said in a March 29 X post.

Meanwhile, Castle Island Ventures’ Nic Carter recently said that Ether’s declining appeal as an investment comes from layer-2s draining value from the main network and a lack of community pushback on excessive token creation.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29

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Listing an altcoin traps exchanges on 'forever hamster wheel' — River CEO

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When a cryptocurrency exchange lists its first altcoin, it sets itself up for an endless cycle of launching memecoins, warns a Bitcoin-only institution executive.

“The minute an exchange adds one non-Bitcoin token, they are signing up to be on the forever hamster wheel of memecoins,” River Financial CEO Alex Leishman said in a March 29 X post. “It makes no sense to list ETH if you don’t list the tokens issued on ETH, and the same goes for Solana,” Leishman said.

River has no interest in building a “successful crypto casino”

Leishman said while there are many “successful crypto casinos,” he has no interest in building one. River Financial is a Bitcoin-only financial institution focusing on buying and selling Bitcoin (BTC).  Several companies have opted for the Bitcoin-only approach, including Swan Bitcoin, Bull Bitcoin, and decentralized exchange Bisq.

Leishman claimed that multi-asset trading platforms prioritize short-term speculation over wealth accumulation:

“The casino business model is built around maximal extraction from customers, and the Bitcoin-only model is focused on helping people build long-term wealth.” 

Critics have voiced this point before, even during the memecoin uptrend in early 2024. In April 2024, A16z chief technology officer Eddy Lazzarin said that memecoins hamper the long-term vision of crypto that has kept so many of the original builders in the space.

“At best, it looks like a risky casino,” Lazzarin said.

The memecoin market cap is down 27.94% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap

The overall memecoin market cap has taken a significant downturn since the beginning of 2025. Since Jan. 1, the memecoin market cap has slumped almost 49% to $48.49 billion at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.

However, while altcoins have historically been more volatile than Bitcoin, offering them alongside Bitcoin has been a lucrative move for crypto exchanges and brokers. 

Related: Waiting for altcoin season? Data suggests it’s already here

On Feb. 12, Robinhood, which offers several cryptocurrencies to its customers, reported a 700% year-over-year surge in Q4 2024 cryptocurrency revenue.

Some traders seem to interpret a memecoin listing on an exchange as validation of its credibility. Among the 15 memecoins listed by crypto exchange Binance in 2024, 12 saw significant increases in value after going live on the exchange, pseudonymous onchain analyst Ai_9684xtpa said in November.

CoinGecko founder Bobby Ong recently speculated that the memecoin market might be headed toward an “extreme case of power law,” where 99.99% fail and a few rise to the top and endure.

Magazine: Arbitrum co-founder skeptical of move to based and native rollups: Steven Goldfeder

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Why institutions are hesitant about decentralized finance — Shibtoshi

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Shibtoshi, the founder of the SilentSwap privacy-preserving trading platform, outlined several concerns that make institutions hesitant to adopt decentralized finance (DeFi) solutions, including privacy, a lack of standardized compliance regulations, and legal accountability.

The DeFi founder told Cointelegraph that the high transparency of onchain transactions presents a problem for companies that must conceal sensitive information, including trading strategies, payroll information, and business-to-business agreements. Shibtoshi said:

“The main concerns — regulatory uncertainty, privacy limitations, and complex user experience — are real, but solvable. Innovations in privacy-preserving protocols are making DeFi increasingly compatible with enterprise needs. Platforms like SilentSwap are a step in that direction.”

Regulatory uncertainty continues to be one of the biggest problems for DeFi and is compounded by a fragmented approach across legal jurisdictions, which prevents institutional adoption, Shibtoshi added.

“Are DeFi tokens securities? What happens if a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) messes up — and who is responsible when it does? It is all still pretty unclear,” the SilentSwap founder told Cointelegraph.

Shibtoshi urged common sense regulations that encourage innovation and preserve the value propositions of decentralized finance, including self-custody, speed, and cost-effective transactions.

The total value locked across the DeFi ecosystem has not yet returned to peak levels witnessed in 2021 and 2022. Source: DeFiLlama

Related: Specialized purpose DEXs poised for growth in 2025 — Curve founder

US Congress overturns archaic DeFi rule, but DeFi still in danger

Both chambers of the United States Congress recently voted to overturn the highly unpopular DeFi broker rule requiring decentralized finance protocols and platforms to report customer transactions to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).

The US Senate repealed the IRS broker rule in a 70 to 27 vote on March 4, followed by members of the US House of Representatives voting to repeal the IRS rule on March 11.

Despite the repeal of the archaic rule, overregulation may end up killing a sector that was born as a decentralized, more accessible, and pseudonymous alternative to traditional finance.

According to crypto entrepreneur and investor Artem Tolkachev, regulatory compliance is undermining decentralization in DeFi and destroying the value proposition of the nascent sector.

The emphasis on regulatory compliance measures increases the potential for censorship and shifts control from the users to third-party intermediaries and large institutions, Tolkachev wrote.

Magazine: How Shibtoshi gambled 37 ETH and became a Shiba Inu billionaire

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