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Bitcoin price has 75% chance of hitting new highs in 2025 — Analyst

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Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson maintains his optimistic outlook for BTC (BTC), suggesting that there is a 75% chance that the asset will hit new highs in the next nine months.

In a March 25 X post, Peterson highlighted BTC’s current position near the lower bound of its historical range. The analyst emphasized that Bitcoin’s current path aligns with the bottom 25% threshold, giving it majority odds for a positive rally.

Bitcoin 10-year seasonality chart. Source: X.com

Peterson said, 

“Here is a 50% chance it will gain 50%+ in the short term.”

Peterson’s statements follow an earlier study that found that most of Bitcoin’s annual bullish performance occurred in April and October, which have averaged 12.98% and 21.98%, respectively, over the past decade.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin flips ‘macro bullish’ amid first Hash Ribbon buy signal in 8 months

Bitcoin onchain cost basis zone key investors’ levels

In a recent quicktake post on CryptoQuant, anonymous analyst Crazzyblockk said that the realized price for short-term whales is $91,000, whereas most highly active addresses hold a cost basis between $84,000 and $85,000.

Bitcoin short-term whales position. Source: CryptoQuant

A dip below the cost basis could trigger selling, making the $84,000 to $85,000 range a critical liquidity zone.

The analyst added, 

“These onchain cost basis levels represent decision zones where market psychology shifts. Traders and investors should closely monitor price reactions in these areas to gauge trend strength and potential reversals.”

Related: BlackRock launches Bitcoin ETP in Europe

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

South Korea temporarily lifts Upbit’s 3-month ban on serving new clients

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A South Korean court temporarily lifted the partial business suspension on crypto exchange Upbit that had prohibited the trading platform from servicing new clients for three months. 

On Feb. 25, South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) sanctioned the exchange, imposing a three-month ban on deposits and withdrawals for new clients. The FIU previously said the suspension was in response to Upbit’s violations of policies that prohibit exchanges from transacting with unregistered virtual asset service providers (VASPs). 

In response to the FIU’s sanction, Upbit’s parent company, Dunamu, filed a lawsuit against the FIU, seeking to overturn the partial suspension order. In addition, Dunamu requested an injunction to temporarily lift the suspension order. 

On March 27, local media Newsis reported that the court granted the injunction, moving the suspension order 30 days after a court judgment is reached. This allows Upbit to service new clients while the legal battle continues. 

Upbit investigations led to a 3-month suspension order

Founded in 2017, Upbit is South Korea’s largest crypto exchange. On Oct. 10, the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) initiated an investigation into Upbit for potential breaches of the country’s anti-monopoly laws. 

In addition to anti-monopoly breaches, the exchange is suspected of violating Know Your Customer (KYC) rules. On Nov. 15, the FIU identified up at least 500,000 to 600,000 potential KYC violations of the exchange. The regulator spotted alleged breaches while reviewing the exchange’s business license renewal. 

In 2018, South Korean regulators ended anonymous crypto trading for its citizens. With the new development, users must pass KYC procedures before being allowed to trade digital assets on crypto trading platforms like Upbit. 

Apart from these allegations, the FIU accused Upbit of facilitating 45,000 transactions with unregistered foreign crypto exchanges. This violates the country’s Act on Reporting and Using Specified Financial Transaction Information.

Related: South Korea plans to regulate cross-border stablecoin transactions

South Korea cracks down on overseas exchanges

On Oct. 25, 2024, South Korea strengthened its oversight of cross-border crypto asset transactions. The country’s finance minister, Choi Sang-Mok, said the government will introduce a reporting mandate for businesses that handle cross-border transactions with digital assets.

This aims to promote preemptive monitoring of crypto transactions “used for tax evasion and currency manipulation.”

In line with the rules, South Korea’s Google Play blocked the applications of 17 crypto exchanges at the request of the FIU. The FIU said it’s also working to restrict exchange access using the internet and Apple’s App Store. 

Magazine: Ridiculous ‘Chinese Mint’ crypto scam, Japan dives into stablecoins: Asia Express

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Coin Market

Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

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BItcoin (BTC) retains a $138,000 price target for 2025 as the market recovers from US trade tariffs, new analysis concludes.

Data covering bets on prediction service Polymarket suggests that BTC/USD could still gain around 60% from current levels this year.

“Conservative” Polymarket users cap BTC price upside at 60%

Bitcoin bull market projections have taken a beating this quarter thanks to multiple setbacks impacting crypto and the wider risk-asset spectrum.

Now, an assessment of all potential BTC price outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle may be capped at around 60% before 2026.

The results were uploaded to X by user Ashwin on March 27 and show that price bets extend all the way down to $59,000.

“The great thing about this analysis is that it not only provides a market sentiment score, like the Fear and Greed Index, but also attaches to it the expected price target for both bearish and bullish scenarios,” he explained. 

“This offers a reference to compare one’s price prediction with the market’s.”

BTC price targets on Polymarket. Source: Ashwin/X

Ashwin deconstructed the methodology used to analyze odds across multiple Polymarket arenas, resulting in a potential BTC price range between $59,040 and $138,617.

“The $138k Bitcoin price target may not seem bullish to most Bitcoiners, who are accustomed to hearing hyperbolic valuations. However, the market remains conservative as it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued.

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, one average BTC price target stands at $122,000 — just $11,500 beyond current all-time highs.

BTC price odds (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin support failure remains a risk

As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants have drawn lines in the sand that price action should not violate in order to protect the broader bull market.

Related: Bitcoin price just ditched a 3-month downtrend as ‘key shift’ begins

These include the area around old all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000.

Earlier this month, a historically accurate forecasting tool, which its creator describes as showing where Bitcoin “won’t be” in the future, gave a 95% chance of $69,000 holding.

In his latest update, popular trader Aksel Kibar stressed that the yearly average of $76,000 must stay in place.

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” he told X followers on March 26.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Ghibli memecoins surge as internet flooded with Studio Ghibli-style AI images

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Solana Ghibli-inspired memecoins are surging in popularity as ChatGPT users have flooded social media with Studio Ghibli-inspired images over the past 24 hours.

On March 25, OpenAI launched image generation for its ChatGPT-4o mode, leading users to splash images across social media style in the art style of Studio Ghibli — known for its anime films Spirited Away and My Neighbor Totoro.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk contributed to the trend, posting portraits of themselves generated by the model. Musk, with over 219 million followers on his platform X, has a history of influencing memecoins such as Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) with his posts.

Sam Altman posted a Studio Ghibli-inspired AI image while announcing ChatGPT’s image generation tool. Source: Sam Altman

Neither Musk nor Altman mentioned any Ghibli-themed memecoin. Still, the largest Ghibli-themed token by market cap, Ghiblification (GHIBLI) has reached a market cap of $20.80 million since it went live 19 hours ago, according to DEX Screener.

At the time of publication, it is trading at $0.02083, up approximately 39,010% since it was created.

The Solana-based memecoin Ghibli has climbed by nearly 40,000% since it launched on March 26. Source: DEX Screener

At least 20 other Ghibli-related memecoins have been created since. Some crypto traders see it as a potential sign of life for the memecoin market, which has dropped 57% in value since Dec. 8 — just days after Bitcoin first hit $100,000.

Crypto trader Sachs said in a March 26 X post that he is praying the memecoin “runs to $100M to bring some hopes into these markets.”

“Severely needed,” Sachs added.

Related: The $100B memecoin market meets AI-driven intelligence for smarter trading

It follows the recent trend of memecoins sparking out of cultural references and movements. The CHILLGUY token launched on Nov. 15 on the Solana blockchain, riding the wave of the viral “Just a chill guy” meme that gained popularity on social media.

CHILLGUY’s value surged, reaching a peak market capitalization of $643 million by Nov. 27. 

However, investing in memecoins tied to daily trends comes with significant risk. CHILLGUY is down 95% from its November high, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Magazine: Ex-Alameda hire on ‘pressure’ to not blow up Backpack exchange: Armani Ferrante, X Hall of Flame

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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