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Bitcoin must reclaim this key 2025 level to avoid new lows — Research

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Bitcoin (BTC) neared $90,000 at the March 24 Wall Street open as analysis warned of “conflicting signs and signals.”

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC price daily gains near 3% in risk-asset relief

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD hitting $88,772 on Bitstamp — its highest levels since March 7.

Bitcoin followed stocks by opening the week higher after almost a month of sell-side pressure. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite index were up 1.6% and 2%, respectively, at the time of writing.

Commenting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter explained the upside as a positive reaction to news that the US government was easing the severity of new trade tariffs set to become effective on April 2.

It quoted sources reporting that “sector-specific tariffs” would emerge instead of blanket rules.

“The S&P 500 is now up +75 points on the news,” it added.

S&P 500 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Crypto market momentum had already gained thanks to rumors of the US potentially using gains on its gold reserves to purchase BTC.

“If we actually realize the gains on [these holdings], that would be a budget-neutral way to acquire more Bitcoin,” Bo Hines, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, said in an interview with the Crypto in America podcast last week.

In his latest market analysis on March 24, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, suggested that the news had not fallen on deaf ears.

Despite the relatively modest BTC price uptick, he wrote in an X thread, “the announcement that the administration was considering selling Gold Reserves to buy Bitcoin certainly gave speculators some hopium.”

“With gold in ATH territory, and BTC in a correction, this would be an opportune time to take some profit on Gold and buy Bitcoin,” he added.

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

BTC needs key support reclaim to avoid new lows

Continuing, Alan laid out two key prerequisites for sustained BTC price upside.

Related: RSI breaks 4-month downtrend: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The 21-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $84,674, as well as the 2025 yearly open at around $93,300, must both be reclaimed as support.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 21SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“With conflicting signs and signals, how can we tell if Bitcoin is returning to a path to ATH territory or if this is a developing bull trap? The answer is knowing what your validation/invalidation levels are,” he explained.

The yearly open, in particular, would be crucial, with Alan arguing that until it is reclaimed, “there is an increased likelihood that price will retest the lows.” 

“If/when that happens, I’ll be buying those dips when buying resumes,” he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Hyperliquid whale still holds 10% of JELLY memecoin after $6.2M exploit

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A crypto whale who allegedly manipulated the prize of the Jelly my Jelly (JELLY) memecoin on decentralized exchange Hyperliquid still holds nearly $2 million worth of the token, according to blockchain analysts.

The unidentified whale made at least $6.26 million in profit by exploiting the liquidation parameters on Hyperliquid.

According to a postmortem report by blockchain intelligence firm Arkham, the whale opened three large trading positions within five minutes: two long positions worth $2.15 million and $1.9 million, and a $4.1 million short position that effectively offset the longs.

Source: Arkham

When the price of JELLY rose by 400%, the $4 million short position wasn’t immediately liquidated due to its size. Instead, it was absorbed into the Hyperliquidity Provider Vault (HLP), which is designed to liquidate large positions.

Related: Polymarket faces scrutiny over $7M Ukraine mineral deal bet

In more troubling revelations, the entity may still be holding nearly $2 million worth of the token’s supply, according to blockchain investigator ZachXBT.

“Five addresses linked to the entity who manipulated JELLY on Hyperliquid still hold ~10% of the JELLY supply on Solana ($1.9M+). All JELLY was purchased since March 22, 2025,” he wrote in a March 26 Telegram post.

The entity continues selling the tokens despite Hyperliquid freezing and delisting the memecoin, citing “evidence of suspicious market activity” involving trading instruments.

The JELLY token’s collapse is the latest in a series of memecoin scandals and insider schemes looking to capitalize on investor hype. 

Source: Bubblemaps

The exploit occurred only two weeks after a Wolf of Wall Street-inspired memecoin — launched by the Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) and Libra (LIBRA) token co-creator Hayden Davis — crashed over 99% after launching with an 80% insider supply.

WOLF/SOL, market cap, 1-hour chart. Source: Dexscreener

Related: Polymarket whale raises Trump odds, sparking manipulation concerns

Lessons from the JELLY memecoin meltdown: “Hype without fundamentals”

“The JELLY incident is a clear reminder that hype without fundamentals doesn’t last,” according to Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet.

“In DeFi, momentum can drive short-term attention, but it doesn’t build sustainable platforms,” Kan told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Projects built on speculation, not utility, will continue to get exposed — especially in a market where capital moves quickly and unforgivingly.”

While Hyperliquid’s response cushioned short-term damage, it raises further questions about decentralization, as similar interventions “blur the line between decentralized ethos and centralized control.”

The Hyper Foundation, Hyperliquid’s ecosystem nonprofit, will “automatically” reimburse most affected users for losses related to the incident, except the addresses belonging to the exploiter.

Magazine: Memecoins are ded — But Solana ‘100x better’ despite revenue plunge

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South Korea temporarily lifts Upbit’s 3-month ban on serving new clients

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A South Korean court temporarily lifted the partial business suspension on crypto exchange Upbit that had prohibited the trading platform from servicing new clients for three months. 

On Feb. 25, South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) sanctioned the exchange, imposing a three-month ban on deposits and withdrawals for new clients. The FIU previously said the suspension was in response to Upbit’s violations of policies that prohibit exchanges from transacting with unregistered virtual asset service providers (VASPs). 

In response to the FIU’s sanction, Upbit’s parent company, Dunamu, filed a lawsuit against the FIU, seeking to overturn the partial suspension order. In addition, Dunamu requested an injunction to temporarily lift the suspension order. 

On March 27, local media Newsis reported that the court granted the injunction, moving the suspension order 30 days after a court judgment is reached. This allows Upbit to service new clients while the legal battle continues. 

Upbit investigations led to a 3-month suspension order

Founded in 2017, Upbit is South Korea’s largest crypto exchange. On Oct. 10, the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) initiated an investigation into Upbit for potential breaches of the country’s anti-monopoly laws. 

In addition to anti-monopoly breaches, the exchange is suspected of violating Know Your Customer (KYC) rules. On Nov. 15, the FIU identified up at least 500,000 to 600,000 potential KYC violations of the exchange. The regulator spotted alleged breaches while reviewing the exchange’s business license renewal. 

In 2018, South Korean regulators ended anonymous crypto trading for its citizens. With the new development, users must pass KYC procedures before being allowed to trade digital assets on crypto trading platforms like Upbit. 

Apart from these allegations, the FIU accused Upbit of facilitating 45,000 transactions with unregistered foreign crypto exchanges. This violates the country’s Act on Reporting and Using Specified Financial Transaction Information.

Related: South Korea plans to regulate cross-border stablecoin transactions

South Korea cracks down on overseas exchanges

On Oct. 25, 2024, South Korea strengthened its oversight of cross-border crypto asset transactions. The country’s finance minister, Choi Sang-Mok, said the government will introduce a reporting mandate for businesses that handle cross-border transactions with digital assets.

This aims to promote preemptive monitoring of crypto transactions “used for tax evasion and currency manipulation.”

In line with the rules, South Korea’s Google Play blocked the applications of 17 crypto exchanges at the request of the FIU. The FIU said it’s also working to restrict exchange access using the internet and Apple’s App Store. 

Magazine: Ridiculous ‘Chinese Mint’ crypto scam, Japan dives into stablecoins: Asia Express

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Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

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BItcoin (BTC) retains a $138,000 price target for 2025 as the market recovers from US trade tariffs, new analysis concludes.

Data covering bets on prediction service Polymarket suggests that BTC/USD could still gain around 60% from current levels this year.

“Conservative” Polymarket users cap BTC price upside at 60%

Bitcoin bull market projections have taken a beating this quarter thanks to multiple setbacks impacting crypto and the wider risk-asset spectrum.

Now, an assessment of all potential BTC price outcomes on Polymarket concludes that the bull market cycle may be capped at around 60% before 2026.

The results were uploaded to X by user Ashwin on March 27 and show that price bets extend all the way down to $59,000.

“The great thing about this analysis is that it not only provides a market sentiment score, like the Fear and Greed Index, but also attaches to it the expected price target for both bearish and bullish scenarios,” he explained. 

“This offers a reference to compare one’s price prediction with the market’s.”

BTC price targets on Polymarket. Source: Ashwin/X

Ashwin deconstructed the methodology used to analyze odds across multiple Polymarket arenas, resulting in a potential BTC price range between $59,040 and $138,617.

“The $138k Bitcoin price target may not seem bullish to most Bitcoiners, who are accustomed to hearing hyperbolic valuations. However, the market remains conservative as it recovers from the Trump tariff uncertainty,” he continued.

The modest expectations for BTC/USD mimic those elsewhere. On fellow prediction site Kalshi, one average BTC price target stands at $122,000 — just $11,500 beyond current all-time highs.

BTC price odds (screenshot). Source: Kalshi

Bitcoin support failure remains a risk

As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants have drawn lines in the sand that price action should not violate in order to protect the broader bull market.

Related: Bitcoin price just ditched a 3-month downtrend as ‘key shift’ begins

These include the area around old all-time highs at $73,800 and the 2021 peak at $69,000.

Earlier this month, a historically accurate forecasting tool, which its creator describes as showing where Bitcoin “won’t be” in the future, gave a 95% chance of $69,000 holding.

In his latest update, popular trader Aksel Kibar stressed that the yearly average of $76,000 must stay in place.

“Extremely important for the price not to breach the year-long average,” he told X followers on March 26.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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