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Misleading crypto narratives continue, driven by 'sensationalist' sentiment

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A crypto analyst says inaccurate narratives still circulate in the cryptocurrency market, mainly based on skewed information rather than onchain data to back it up.

“Beware of misinformation. Despite the data, misleading narratives persist,” CryptoQuant contributor “onchained,” said in a March 22 market report.

“Such claims often lack onchain validation and are driven by sensationalist market sentiment rather than objective analysis,” the analyst said, adding:

“Trust data, not noise, verify sources and cross-check onchain metrics.”

Onchained pointed to the recent movements of Bitcoin (BTC) long-term holders (LTH) — those holding for over 155 days — as an example of false narratives clashing with real data.

The analyst pointed out that while some narratives claim Bitcoin long-term holders are “capitulating,” the data shows they’re remaining consistent. “The data leaves no room for speculation,” Onchained said.

The Inactive Supply Shift Index (ISSI) — which measures the degree to which long-dormant Bitcoin supply is shifting — “shows no meaningful LTH selling pressure, reinforcing a narrative of structural demand outpacing supply,” Onchained said.

Narratives are always being challenged

Crypto analytics platform Glassnode recently made a similar observation based on data, saying, “Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure.”

Crypto market narratives are constantly changing and being challenged.

One long-standing crypto narrative under debate is the relevance of the 4-year cycle theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s price follows a predictable pattern tied to its halving event every four years.

Source: Tomas Greif

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said in a March 22 X post, “I assume that we can erase the entire 4-year cycle theory and that we’re in a longer cycle for Altcoins.” 

Related: Crypto markets will be pressured by trade wars until April: Analyst

Echoing a similar sentiment, Bitwise Invest chief investment officer Matt Hougan recently said that “the traditional four-year cycle is over in crypto” due to the recent change in the US government’s stance.

“Crypto has moved in four-year cycles since its earliest days. But the change in DC introduces a new wave that will play out over a decade,” Hougan said.

Alongside this, some analysts are even debating whether the entire Bitcoin bull market is over.

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said in a March 17 X post, “Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

Ju said all Bitcoin onchain metrics indicate a bear market. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices,” Ju said. 

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Coin Market

Massive Bitcoin whale buys $200M in BTC, another wakes up after 8 years

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A massive Bitcoin whale wallet holding has just added $200 million worth of Bitcoin to its position after selling over 11,400 Bitcoin over the last few months — coinciding with a recent rebound for the original cryptocurrency. 

The Bitcoin (BTC) whale added 2,400 Bitcoin — worth over $200 million — to their stash on March 24, blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence said in an X post.

Data shared by the firm shows that despite some sales in February, after the latest purchase, the whale holds over 15,000 Bitcoin in its wallet, worth over $1.3 billion, at current prices.

“A $1 billion Bitcoin Whale just withdrew $200 million of Bitcoin this morning from Binance,” Arkham said.

The whale started acquiring Bitcoin five days ago after selling off its stash when Bitcoin’s price was between $100,000 and $86,000 in February. CoinGeck data shows on Feb. 1, Bitcoin was worth over $104,000, but it steadily declined to hit a low of $78,940 on Feb. 28. 

Source: Arkham Intelligence

The whale movement comes amid a recent Bitcoin price rebound. 

Bitcoin has been trading $81,000 and $88,000 in the last seven days, according to CoinGecko, with a price surge of 3% on March 24, distancing itself from its $76,900 low on March 11.

Bitcoin whale wakes from slumber 

At the same time, another Bitcoin whale has woken up after eight years of dormancy, moving over 3,000 Bitcoin, worth $250 million, in one transaction on March 22.

“His Bitcoin stack went from $3M in early 2017 to over $250M today — and he’s held Bitcoin on one address for over 8 years,” Arkham said in a March 22 X post. 

Another huge Bitcoin holder, BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with approximately $11.6 trillion in assets under management, has been steadily accumulating more Bitcoin over the last week as well, according to Arkham.

Across 15 transactions, the asset manager bought an extra 4,054 Bitcoin, giving it a total stash of 573,878, worth over $50 billion, data on Bitbo’s Bitcoin treasury tracker shows

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) also led a rally of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US, snapping a five-week net outflow streak by clocking a net inflow of $744.4 million. 

The bulk of net inflows came from BlackRock’s iShares, which recorded $537.5 million, followed by Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $136.5 million.

Bitcoin whales weren’t the only ones accumulating more crypto. Lookonchain used Arkham data to track a lone Ether whale who added 7,074 Ether (ETH) to its stash on March 21, worth $13.8 million.

Source: Lookonchain

Ether has been moving between $1,876 and $2,097 in the last seven days, CoinGecko data shows. It’s still down over 57% from its all-time high of $4,878, which it hit in November 2021.

However, its open interest surged to a new all-time high on March 21, and the number of addresses with at least $100,000 worth of Ether started rising at the beginning of March, from just over 70,000 addresses on March 10 to over 75,000 on March 22.

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Coin Market

Massachusetts subpoenas Robinhood over sports prediction markets

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Massachusetts’ securities regulator has reportedly launched a probe over Robinhood’s prediction markets offering that has allowed users to bet on the outcomes for a slew of events, including basketball tournaments. 

Reuters reported on March 24 that Massachusetts Secretary of State Bill Galvin said his office subpoenaed Robinhood last week to get information on its marketing materials and the number of Massachusetts-based users that traded sports events contracts on college basketball tournaments.

Galvin said he was concerned the trading platform was “linking a gambling event on a popular sports event that’s especially popular to young people to a brokerage account.”

“This is just another gimmick from a company that’s very good at gimmicks to lure investors away from sound investing,” he added.

Robinhood launched a prediction markets hub on March 17 that would be initially available through the Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated prediction platform Kalshi and would feature event contracts on college basketball tournaments and the May federal funds rate. 

A Robinhood spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the event contracts “are regulated by the CFTC and offered through CFTC-registered entities.”

“Prediction markets have become increasingly relevant for retail and institutional investors alike, and we’re proud to be one of the first platforms to offer these products to retail customers in a safe and regulated manner,” the spokesperson said.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) share price remained relatively flat after the close of trading on March 24 after an over 9% jump over the day to close at $48.36, according to Google Finance.

Robinhood is up nearly 30% so far this year but has fallen from its Feb. 14 all-time peak of $65.28. Source: Google Finance 

The CFTC and Galvin’s office did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Event contracts are agreements that allow users to bet on the outcome of essentially anything, from sports games to election outcomes and the price of cryptocurrencies.

Related: Coinbase in talks to buy derivatives exchange Deribit: Report 

They were popularized on the blockchain-based prediction market Polymarket and non-decentralized rival Kalshi and have caught the ire of some regulators.

Last month, Robinhood scrapped event contracts allowing for bets on the Super Bowl a day after launching the products after the CFTC asked it to. 

The Massachusetts probe also requested Robinhood hand over internal communications about the decision to roll out the recent college basketball events contracts after the CFTC’s request to stop the Super Bowl contracts.

The CFTC also reportedly asked Kalshi and Crypto.com early last month to explain how both of their Super Bowl event contracts complied with derivatives regulations.

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Arizona’s strategic crypto reserve bills heads for full floor vote

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Two strategic digital asset reserve bills in Arizona cleared Arizona’s House Rules Committee on March 24 and are now headed to the House floor for a full vote.

The bills together, if passed into law, would clear the way for Arizona to establish strategic digital assets reserves composed of existing assets confiscated through criminal proceedings in addition to newly invested public funds.

The Republicans hold a 33-27 majority in Arizona’s House of Representatives, giving both bills a decent chance of passing. 

Source: Bitcoin Laws

However, according to Bitcoin Laws, the final hurdle could be the state’s Democratic governor, Katie Hobbs. Hobbs has a history of vetoing bills before the House, having blocked 22% of bills in 2024 — the highest rate of any state governor.

Arizona’s two crypto bills explained

The two bills recently approved by Arizona’s House Rules Committee are the Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Bill (SB 1373) and the Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB 1025). 

The Strategic Digital Assets Reserve Bill (SB 1373) focuses on establishing a strategic digital assets reserve made up of digital assets seized through criminal proceedings to be managed by the state’s treasurer. 

The treasurer would be limited to investing no more than 10% of the fund’s total value each fiscal year. However, they would also be able to loan the fund’s assets in order to increase returns, provided that doing so doesn’t increase financial risks.

The Arizona Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB 1025) specifically deals with Bitcoin (BTC). The bill proposes allowing Arizona’s Treasury and state retirement system to invest up to 10% of its available funds into Bitcoin. 

Additionally, SB 1025 would also allow for the state’s Bitcoin reserve to be stored in a secure, segregated account inside a federal Bitcoin reserve, should one be established.

Related: US states lead in strategic Bitcoin reserve creation — Will Trump deliver on his BTC promise?

While Arizona is now considered to be leading the race to establish a state-based digital asset reserve, several other states are hot on its heels.

On March 6, the Texas Senate passed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill (SB-21) by a vote of 25-5. The Texan bill still needs to pass the House and get the governor’s signature to pass into law. Following this vote, a new bill was introduced by Democrat Representative Ron Reynolds to cap the size of the previously uncapped reserve to $250 million.

Utah also recently passed Bitcoin legislation, but all references to the establishment of a strategic reserve were removed at the last moment.

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma House passed its Bitcoin Reserve Bill HB1203, 77-15 on March 25. That bill will now head to the state’s senate.

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