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Crypto markets will be pressured by trade wars until April: analyst

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Both cryptocurrency and traditional markets will be pressured by global trade war concerns until at least the beginning of April, but the potential resolution may bring the next big market catalyst.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price fell over 17% since US President Donald Trump first announced import tariffs on Chinese goods on Jan. 20, the first day after his presidential inauguration.

Despite a multitude of positive crypto-specific developments, global tariff fears will continue pressuring the markets until at least April 2, according to Nicolai Sondergaard, research analyst at Nansen.

BTC/USD, 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The research analyst said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show on March 21:

“I’m looking forward to seeing what happens with the tariffs from April 2nd onwards, maybe we’ll see some of them dropped but it depends if all countries can agree. That’s the biggest driver at this moment.”

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 21, 2025

Risk assets may lack direction until the tariff-related concerns are resolved, which may happen between April 2 and July, presenting a positive market catalyst, added the analyst.

President Trump’s reciprocal tariff rates are set to take effect on April 2, despite earlier comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that indicated a possible delay in their activation.

Related: Ether risks correction to $1.8K as ETF outflows, tariff fears continue

Fed’s interest rates are also contributing to market slump

High interest rates will also continue pressuring risk appetite among investors until the Federal Reserve eventually starts cutting rates, explained Sondergaard, adding:

“We’re waiting for the Fed to see proper “bad news” before they will really start cutting rates.”

Fed target interest rate probabilities. Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

Markets are currently pricing in an 85% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady during the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Related: Crypto debanking is not over until Jan 2026: Caitlin Long

Still, the Federal Reserve indicates that inflation and recession-related concerns are transitory, particularly regarding tariffs, which may be a positive sign for investors, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo digital asset investment platform.

“Markets may now expect upcoming economic data with greater confidence,” the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“Cooling inflation and stable economic conditions could further boost investor appetite, driving additional upside for Bitcoin and digital assets.”

“Keep an eye on key reports, including Consumer Confidence, Q4 GDP, jobless claims, and next week’s crucial PCE inflation release, to gauge the likelihood of future rate cuts,” the analyst added.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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Coin Market

Ethereum down 57% from its all-time high, but it’s still worth more than Toyota

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Ether is trading at around half its all-time high price, but the Ethereum network is still valued higher than some of the world’s most prominent companies.

Ether (ETH) traded at roughly $2,088 at the time of writing amid continued exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, down over 57% from its all-time high of nearly $4,900 set in mid-November 2021, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Despite this decline, Ethereum maintains a market capitalization of nearly $252 billion, surpassing global corporations such as Toyota ($250 billion) and the total market value of the precious metal platinum ($245 billion).

Other notable companies currently worth less than the Ethereum network include IBM, McDonald’s, General Electric, Shell and Disney. If Ethereum were a company, it would be the fiftieth largest in the world, just behind Nestlé, with its market capitalization of nearly $256 billion.

Alex Obchakevich, founder of Obchakevich Research, told Cointelegraph that speculative interest significantly contributes to Ethereum’s valuation, as well as its “freedom from the financial framework of traditional finance.” He added:

“Ethereum is about the future, about new financial technologies and solutions. The project is still very young and attracts many new and young investors who are ready to take risks. I believe that the average Zoomer will choose Ethereum for investment rather than Toyota or IBM shares.”

Flavio Bianchi, a Polkadot ambassador and the chief marketing officer of the decentralized fundraising platform Polimec, told Cointelegraph that the comparison is less insightful than it might appear at first. He highlighted that “Ethereum isn’t a business” — it’s infrastructure. He explained:

“Its value doesn’t come solely from revenue or profit but from usage and belief in its future role. It enables people to build, transact, issue assets and coordinate without intermediaries.”

Obchakevich also suggested Ethereum became more attractive after it transitioned to proof-of-stake (PoS), reinforcing “its value as a deflationary asset with growth potential in the digital economy.”

Related: ETH may reclaim $2.2K ‘macro range’ amid growing whale accumulation

Is Ethereum a deflationary asset?

Recent data from Ultra Sound Money shows that Ethereum is inflationary again, with an annual inflation rate of about 0.73% over the past 30 days.

The rate of inflation or deflation is largely dependent on the ETH fees burned by the network and the amount of newly issued Ether. Fees have been burned on the network since the implementation of EIP-1559 in 2021, which, paired with decreased issuance after the PoS transition, resulted in Ethereum being deflationary during sustained network activity.

IntoTheBlock data shows that on March 23, daily fees on Ethereum fell to a little over $337,000, the lowest value reported since June 2020. YCharts also shows that on March 23, there was only 118.67 ETH worth of fees, the lowest value reported this year.

Ethereum network transaction fees per day. Source: YCharts

Over the past 24 hours, ETH’s value rose nearly 3.5%, increasing its market capitalization by about $9.3 billion, now totaling approximately $252.1 billion. For comparison, this figure exceeds Greece’s gross domestic product (GDP), currently around $243.5 billion.

Related: Ethereum eyes 65% gains from ‘cycle bottom’ as BlackRock ETH stash crosses $1B

Obchakevich highlighted that other than being worth more than Greece’s GDP, Ethereum’s market cap is also higher than the GDP of countries such as Slovenia and Croatia combined. He said this is more than a curious factoid:

“For institutional investors, it is a sign of legitimacy. Ethereum is valued for smart contracts, and DeFi has a TVL [total value locked] of over $124 billion, seeing it not only as speculation but as the infrastructure of the future.”

Pradeep Singh, CEO of enterprise privacy and security infrastructure firm Gateway FM, told Cointelegraph that these numbers reflect “a fundamental shift in how we value digital infrastructure”:

“What we’re witnessing is a growing recognition that significant portions of the global economy will eventually migrate to this infrastructure. Ethereum’s market capitalization is essentially pricing in its future role as the settlement layer for everything from financial services to supply chain management.”

The Ethereum protocol continues to evolve as developers introduce innovations such as native rollups, further expanding the blockchain’s capabilities and potential use cases.

Magazine: MegaETH launch could save Ethereum… but at what cost?

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Tabit offers USD insurance policies backed by Bitcoin regulatory capital

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Barbados-based insurer Tabit has raised $40 million in Bitcoin for its insurance facility, in a move the company said would bolster its balance sheet and allow the insurance sector to capitalize on digital assets.

Tabit’s Bitcoin (BTC) regulatory capital will be used to back traditional insurance policies, which are all denominated in US dollars, the company disclosed in a March 24 announcement. 

Tabit claims to be the first property and casualty insurer to hold its entire regulatory reserve in BTC. The company was founded by former executives of Bittrex, a Liechtenstein-based cryptocurrency exchange that was shuttered in 2023.

“This solution offers a regulated dollar return, which we’re excited to earn on an alternative asset class such as Bitcoin,” said William Shihara, Tabit’s co-founder. 

Tabit co-founder and CEO Stephen Stonberg said Bitcoin allows the insurance sector to “Access a largely new and untapped source of insurance capital: digital assets.” 

“Bitcoin means Tabit has access to a whole new pool of capital,” a company spokesperson told Cointelegraph. “BTC has limited regulated use cases where a hodler can earn a return, but insurance is one of them.”

Tabit launched in January as a Bitcoin-backed insurer, receiving a Class 2 license from Barbados’ Financial Services Commission. 

VC Roundup: Bitcoin RWA, BNB incubator, Web3 gaming secure funding

Blockchain and the insurance sector

So far, most of the discussion around cryptocurrency and insurance has been tied to helping users recover financial losses and using blockchain technology to improve the industry’s transparency. According to a 2023 report by Boston Consulting Group, the blockchain-insurance nexus could become a $37 billion opportunity by 2030.

Behind the scenes, there’s also a growing industry for matching insurance brokers and underwriters with digital asset capital providers. 

One such company is Nayms, an onchain insurance marketplace that facilitates the connection between capital providers and brokers via segregated accounts.

Ensuro is another such provider, which curates insurance market opportunities and provides underwriting capacity through the use of stablecoins. According to its website, Ensuro has over 12,000 active policies, with APYs up to 22%. 

Magazine: Best and worst countries for crypto taxes — Plus crypto tax tips

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From ICO hype to AI utility: The evolution of crypto agents in Web3

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The rise of AI-driven crypto agents is following a familiar trajectory that mirrors the initial boom, bust and resurgence of ICO-era projects. Just as early blockchain ventures thrived on hype before maturing into sustainable ecosystems, the current wave of AI agent projects is undergoing rapid market shifts. 

A new report by HTX Ventures and HTX Research says that investors are growing cautious as competition in the sector intensifies, liquidity disperses and many projects struggle to define clear use cases. Still, as the sector moves beyond its speculative phase, AI-driven crypto agents are expected to evolve sustainable business models underpinned by genuine utility.

To dive deeper into the evolution of crypto agents and the future of AI-driven blockchain innovation, download the full report by HTX here.

From meme hype to reality: The evolution of crypto agents

The initial wave of crypto agent projects in 2024 was driven by indiscriminate enthusiasm for AI projects. Following the impact of a $50,000 Bitcoin donation from Marc Andreessen in October 2024 and the success of token launchpads earlier in the year, many AI agent projects entered the space in Q1 of 2024 and rapidly diluted liquidity by Q1 of 2025. As with any emerging sector, early-stage hype did not always translate into long-term viability, and a cooling-off period in the crypto AI agent sector followed.

The market segment is now entering a more mature phase, and the focus is shifting from speculative excitement to revenue generation and product performance. The winners in this evolving landscape will be those that can generate stable revenue, cover the costs of running AI models and provide tangible value to users and investors alike.

AI agent applications emphasize real-world implementation and commercialization of this technology, particularly in areas like automated trading, asset management, market analysis and crosschain interaction. This approach aligns with multi-agent systems and DeFAI (decentralized finance + AI) initiatives like Hey Anon, GRIFFAIN and ChainGPT.

Recent research highlights the advantages of multi-agent systems (MAS) in portfolio management, particularly in cryptocurrency investments. Projects such as Griffain, NEUR, and BUZZ have already demonstrated how AI can help users interact with DeFi protocols and make informed decisions. Unlike single-agent AI models, multi-agent systems leverage collaboration among specialized agents to enhance market analysis and execution. These agents function in teams, such as data analysts, risk evaluators and trading execution units, each trained to handle specific tasks. 

MAS frameworks also introduce inter-agent communication mechanisms, where agents within the same team refine predictions through collective learning, reducing errors in market trend analysis. The next phase of DeFAI will likely involve deeper integration of decentralized governance models, where multi-agent systems participate in protocol management, treasury optimization and onchain compliance enforcement.

To dive deeper into the evolution of crypto agents and the future of AI-driven blockchain innovation, download the full report by HTX here.

DeepSeek-R1: A breakthrough in AI agent training

A breakthrough in AI agent technology arrived with DeepSeek-R1, an innovation that challenges traditional AI training methods. Unlike previous models, which relied on supervised fine-tuning (SFT) followed by reinforcement learning (RL), DeepSeek-R1 takes a different approach, optimizing entirely through reinforcement learning without an initial supervised phase. This shift has led to remarkable improvements in reasoning capabilities and adaptability, paving the way for more sophisticated AI-driven crypto agents.

To understand this paradigm shift, consider two different approaches to learning. In the Traditional SFT and RL model, a student first studies from a workbook, practicing problems with set answers (SFT), and then receives tutoring to refine their understanding (RL). In contrast, with the DeepSeek-R1 Model (Pure Reinforcement Learning), the student is thrown directly into an exam and learns through trial and error. This approach allows the student to improve dynamically based on feedback rather than relying on pre-defined answers.

Leveraging DeepSeek-R1’s pure RL model, AI agents learn through trial and error in real-world conditions, dynamically adjusting their strategies based on immediate feedback.

This method allows for greater adaptability, making it particularly useful for multi-agent AI systems in DeFi, where real-time market fluctuations require agents to make autonomous, data-driven decisions​. For example, AI-powered agents can monitor liquidity pools, detect arbitrage opportunities and optimize asset allocations based on real-time market conditions. These agents adapt quickly to market fluctuations, ensuring more efficient capital deployment.

Launched in late November 2024, iDEGEN is the first crypto AI agent built on DeepSeek R1. This integration of DeepSeek’s R1 model emphasizes how crypto AI agents can inherit such enhanced reasoning capabilities, competing with other established AI models at a fraction of the cost.  

This shift toward RL-powered, multi-agent AI in DeFi automation underscores why closed-source AI models (such as OpenAI’s GPT-based systems) are becoming an unsustainable expense. With workflows often requiring the processing of 10,000+ tokens per transaction, closed AI models impose significant computational costs, limiting scalability. In contrast, open-source RL models like DeepSeek-R1 allow for decentralized, cost-efficient AI development tailored for DeFi applications​.

The future of AI agents in Web3

The key to longevity in this sector lies in continuous innovation, adaptability and cost efficiency. Open-source AI models like DeepSeek-R1 are lowering the barriers to entry, allowing blockchain-native startups to develop specialized AI solutions. Meanwhile, advancements in DeFAI and multi-agent systems will drive long-term integration between AI and decentralized finance. 

The takeaway is clear: Projects must prove their value beyond hype. Those who develop sustainable economic models and leverage cutting-edge AI advancements will define the future of intelligent blockchain ecosystems. The ICO era of crypto agents is evolving, and the next wave of winners will be the ones that can turn innovation into long-term viability.

To dive deeper into the evolution of crypto agents and the future of AI-driven blockchain innovation, download the full report by HTX here.

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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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