Bitcoin heads into the end of Q1 near two-week highs as trader sentiment diverges from improving technicals.

Bitcoin (BTC) market participants are positioned for a fresh BTC price dip, which could even form new multimonth lows.

PCE week coincides with the last full trading week of March, and risk assets are showing a hint of optimism.

When it comes to BTC price strength, RSI is increasingly demanding bullish continuation.

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are under pressure amid serious unrealized losses.

Stablecoin stocks on Binance hit record highs in what research hopes is a positive signal for investor confidence.

Bitcoin traders see downside reversal next

Bitcoin is nearing a rematch with two-week highs as the week gets underway, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among traders, however, the mood remains cautious.

Bulls have a lot to do in order to spark a reliable uptrend, they warn, and despite being up nearly 15% versus its multimonth lows from earlier this month, BTC/USD may well see a fresh drop.

“Market sentiment has been restored after hitting the short liquidations at $87.1k. Now, it could be a good opportunity for the MM to shake out the market again,” popular trader CrypNuevo wrote in his latest X analysis. 

“We may see a pullback from here over the next 1-2 weeks, a retrace of this recovery.”

BTC liquidity chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

CrypNuevo eyed downside liquidity nearer $80,000 as a potentially lucrative target, advising followers to “mind the risk.”

BTC/USDT 1-hour chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Fellow trading account HTL-NL described the near-term scenario as “not looking good” for bulls, eyeing $90,000 as a ceiling before a reversal kicks in.

Even among its more ardent supporters, the specter of the mid-$70,000 lingers. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, argues that BTC/USD could even advance to new all-time highs of $110,000 before crashing 30%.

LATEST: BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will hit $110k before retesting $76.5k, claiming Fed is switching from QT to QE for treasuries and dismisses tariff concerns, citing “transitory inflation.” pic.twitter.com/VX3ORPyvii

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 24, 2025

“Again I still think we go lower before we make a run back to 88-90k resistance retest,” trader Roman meanwhile added on short timeframes.

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on several key support trend lines in need of a reclaim as part of any BTC price recovery.

These included the 200-day simple and exponential moving averages, currently at $85,050 and $85,500, respectively.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with 200 SMA, 200 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

PCE week comes in the shadow of tariffs

The last full trading week of Q1 2025 gets underway with a hint of relief for risk assets as stocks end a four-week losing streak.

A wild ride for equities since the year began is finally coming to a close, and with it an even more volatile period for Bitcoin and crypto.

That said, more surprises could come before the quarterly candle close.

March 28 is the main date in traders’ diaries this week, hosting the February print of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index. 

Known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, PCE came in below expectations last month, with the upcoming numbers broadly expected to be identical.

Citing the Fed’s own estimates, financial market research firm Bespoke saw positive developments for risk-on sentiment developing.

“The Fed’s inflation model currently estimates that headline and core for both CPI and PCE will all have 2-handles by March,” it observed last week.  

“Makes room for further cuts.”

Fed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

The latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool meanwhile show market odds for interest rate cuts unchanged, with the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as the likely timeframe for financial conditions to ease.

The US government’s reciprocal tariff arrangement, due to go live on April 2, could temper any optimism.

At a press conference following the latest FOMC meeting last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited tariffs as a “driving factor” in increasing inflation expectations.

“You may have seen that goods inflation moved up pretty significantly in the first two months of the year. Trying to track that back to actual tariff increases, given what was tariff and what was not, very, very challenging. So, some of it,” he said. 

“The answer is clearly some of it, a good part of it is coming from tariffs.”

RSI signals tease key BTC price breakouts

When it comes to early bull market continuation signals, Bitcoin is currently enjoying several classics at once.

These all hinge on the relative strength index (RSI), a key momentum indicator that is in the process of breaking out across both long and short timeframes.

Market observers are keenly eyeing bullish divergences on RSI, which on weekly timeframes is abandoning a downtrend in place since November 2024.

Originally spotted by trader and analyst Rekt Capital last week, the process is continuing, with RSI seeking to confirm the downtrend line as support before heading higher.

“The Daily RSI is showcasing early signs of retesting the Downtrend dating back to November 2024 as new support,” Rekt Capital wrote in his latest update on the topic.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

As reported by fellow analyst Matthew Hyland, BTC/USD has now confirmed a bullish divergence on the weekly chart for the first time since September last year.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Matthew Hyland/X

Daily RSI meanwhile measured 51.4 at the time of writing — above its key midpoint and fighting to hit new two-month highs.

Bitcoin speculators face a profit waiting game

Bitcoin’s short-term holders (STHs) — newcomer entities hodling coins for up to six months — are “under increasing pressure,” onchain analytics firm Glassnode warned.

In its latest analysis on X, Glassnode showed substantial unrealized losses among the STH cohort, one traditionally more sensitive to short-term BTC price volatility.

“Unrealized losses have surged, pushing many STH coins underwater, nearing the +2σ threshold,” it noted alongside a chart that applies standard deviation to the performance of their holdings.

Bitcoin STH unrealized loss. Source: Glassnode/X

As Cointelegraph reported, recent trips to multimonth lows for BTC/USD have been accompanied by significant panic selling by these newer investors, with many choosing to exit their positions at a loss.

Zooming out, however, Glassnode observes that compared to historical extremes, current loss-making sales barely compete.

“The rolling 30-day realized loss for Bitcoin’s STHs has reached $7B, marking the largest sustained loss event of this cycle,” it continued. 

“However, this remains well below prior capitulation events, such as the $19.8B and $20.7B losses in 2021-22.”

Bitcoin STH rolling 30-day realized loss. Source: Glassnode/X

Stablecoin reserves offer glimmer of hope

Further data points to a return of investor confidence in the largest crypto exchange, Binance.

Related: Bitcoin price recovery sets base for TON, AVAX, NEAR, OKB to rally.

As highlighted by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the total ERC-20 standard stablecoin reserves on the exchange hit new all-time highs above $31.8 billion on March 21.

“Binance remains the exchange with the highest trading volumes, making this a significant development,” contributor Darkfost wrote in one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on March 23.

“There are several factors behind this increase, but the most important one is likely that investors on Binance remain confident and are preparing to enter, or re-enter, the market.”

Binance ERC-20 stablecoin reserve. Source: CryptoQuant

Darkfost acknowledged that Binance may be the source of additional liquidity as it prepares for a potential uptick in activity.

“Nonetheless, seeing these stablecoins remain on Binance is generally a positive signal for the market,” he concluded.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Dubai-based crypto market maker and investor DWF Labs launched a $250 million Liquid Fund to accelerate the growth of mid- and large-cap blockchain projects and drive real-world adoption of Web3 technologies.

DWF Labs is set to sign two investment deals worth $25 million and $10 million as part of the fund.

The initiative aims to grow the crypto landscape by offering strategic investments ranging from $10 million to $50 million for projects that have the potential to drive real-world adoption, according to a March 24 announcement shared with Cointelegraph.

Source: DWF Labs

The fund will focus on blockchain projects with significant “usability and discoverability,” according to Andrei Grachev, managing partner of DWF Labs.

“We’re focusing our support on mid to large-cap projects — the tokens and platforms that typically serve as entry points for retail users,” Grachev told Cointelegraph, adding:

“However, good technology and utility alone isn’t sufficient. Users first need to discover these projects, comprehend their value and develop trust.”

“We believe that strategic capital, coupled with hands-on ecosystem development, is the key to unlocking the next wave of growth for the industry,” he said.

Similar incentives may bring more capital for developing blockchain projects and lead to more sophisticated blockchain use cases. The fund comes over a month after the 0G Foundation launched an $88 million ecosystem fund to accelerate projects creating AI-powered decentralized finance (DeFi) applications and autonomous agents, also known as DeFAI agents.

Related: Crypto debanking is not over until Jan 2026: Caitlin Long

New blockchain users need reliable infrastructure: DWF Labs

New users need robust, functional infrastructure when interacting with their first blockchain-based application.

“This approach ensures that when new users enter the space, they’re met with reliable infrastructure, strong communities, and meaningful use cases—not friction,” Grachev said, adding:

“It’s about creating the conditions for real, sustained adoption and helping the next wave of users not just arrive onchain — but stay.”

To ensure projects launch with solid infrastructure, each investment will offer ecosystem growth strategies, including developing lending markets, amplifying brand presence and supporting the project’s stablecoin growth and DeFi activities to “deepen liquidity.”

Related: ETH may reclaim $2.2K ‘macro range’ amid growing whale accumulation

Other industry leaders have blamed the friction in blockchain applications for a lack of mainstream adopters.

The current user onboarding process is complicated and riddled with friction points, which is the main issue for mass crypto adoption, according to Chintan Turakhia, senior director of engineering at Coinbase.

Speaking exclusively to Cointelegraph at EthCC, Turakhia said:

“If our goal is to bring in the next billion users — and let’s start with just 100 million — we have to take all those friction points out.”

Some of the most pressing friction points include setting up a wallet with a complicated seed phase, paying transaction fees and buying blockchain-native tokens to transact on a network.

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Learn-to-earn platform Dohrnii Labs has filed a police report in the United Arab Emirates, accusing local crypto exchange Blynex of liquidating its tokens without authorization and failing to deliver a promised loan. 

According to a statement shared with Cointelegraph, Dohrnii Labs deposited 12,649.99 Dohrnii (DHN) tokens — valued at more than $500,000 — with Blynex. On March 23, the company said it used 8,650 of those tokens as collateral for a 30-day loan in exchange for 80,000 Tether’s USDt (USDT).

Dohrnii claims the exchange never delivered the USDT. Furthermore, the team said Blynex liquidated its entire 8,650 DHN position on Uniswap, receiving 149,151 USDT and causing a drop in the token’s market value. 

Attempts to withdraw the remaining 4,000 DHN tokens were unsuccessful, the company said.

Source: Dohrnii Labs

Blynex claims it was automated risk management

Blynex co-founder Mike Baskes told Cointelegraph the incident was part of their “automated risk management system.” Baskes claimed their system detected a high risk that the collateral would drop significantly in the event of liquidation.

The Blynex executive said that when the tokens were sold, it only generated 145,000 USDT instead of its original amount. He noted that DHN token liquidity was limited, estimating just $315,000 available at the time of the transaction.

The executive claimed Blynex took action to prevent financial losses:

“Given this liquidity constraint, the system recognized a high risk of further loss if the collateral wasn’t liquidated immediately, as the tokens would be difficult to sell at a favorable price in the current market.”

Dohrnii Labs has challenged that explanation, calling Blynex’s justification “misleading” and alleging that the exchange liquidated collateral worth nearly double the value of the loan.

Related: Dubai Land Department begins real estate tokenization project

Dohrnii Labs threatens legal action against Blynex

In response, Dohrnii Labs filed a police report in the UAE and threatened to take legal action against the crypto exchange. 

A Dohrnii Labs representative told Cointelegraph that the police report was only a “first step.” The representative said if Blynex ignored their communications, they would legally escalate the matter:

“Since the project and the individuals responsible are based in the UAE, we are also getting in touch with local regulators, including VARA, ADGM, and other relevant authorities. Furthermore, we’re in contact with other affected projects and are actively exploring the possibility of joint legal action.” 

The team said they want to ensure accountability through the legal system and regulatory oversight. 

Dohrnii told Cointelegraph that Blynex attempted to settle the matter by offering them 80,000 USDT and allowing the withdrawal of 4,000 DHN tokens.

However, the exchange added a condition that the platform would drop all legal action. “That is unacceptable,” Dohrnii Labs said. 

“The 4,000 DHN tokens in question are user deposits — not negotiable assets. The right to withdraw these funds should never be up for discussion,” Dohrnii Labs added. 

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