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Fund managers dump US stocks at record pace — Can recession fears hurt Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action has closely mirrored that of the US equity market in recent years, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500.

Now, as fund managers stage a historic exodus from US stocks, the question arises: could Bitcoin be the next casualty?

Fund managers dump US stocks at record monthly pace

Investors slashed their exposure to US equities by the most on record by 40-percentage-points between February and March, according to Bank of America’s latest survey.

This is the sharpest monthly decline since the bank began tracking the data in 1994. The shift, dubbed a “bull crash,” reflects dwindling faith in US economic outperformance and rising fears of a global downturn.

With a net 69% of surveyed managers declaring the peak of “US exceptionalism,” the data signals a seismic pivot that could ripple into risk assets like Bitcoin, especially given their persistent 52-week positive correlation over the years.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 index 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

More downside risks for Bitcoin and, in turn, the broader crypto market arise from investors’ rising cash allocations.

BofA’s March survey finds that cash levels, a classic flight-to-safety signal, jumped to 4.1% from February’s 3.5%, the lowest since 2010.

BofA Global Fund Manager March survey results. Source: BofA Research

Adding to the unease, 55% of managers flagged “Trade war triggers global recession” as the top tail risk, up from 39% in February, while 19% worried about inflation forcing Fed rate hikes—both scenarios that could chill enthusiasm for risky assets like Bitcoin.

Conversely, the survey’s most crowded trades list still includes “Long crypto” at 9%, coinciding with the establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the US.

Meanwhile, 68% of managers expect Fed rate cuts in 2025, up from 51% last month.

Related: ‘We are worried about a recession,’ but there’s a silver lining — Cathie Wood

Lower rates have previously coincided with Bitcoin and the broader crypto market gains, something bettors on Polymarket believe is 100% certain to happen before May.

Bitcoin price hangs by a thread

Bitcoin’s price has declined by over 25% two months after establishing a record high of under $110,000 — a dropdown many consider a bull market correction, suggesting that the cryptocurrency may recover in the coming months.

“Historically, Bitcoin experiences these types of corrections during long-term rallies, and there’s no reason to believe this time is different,” Derive founder Nick Forster told Cointelegraph, adding however that the cryptocurrency’s next six months depend on how traditional markets (stocks) perform.

Technically, as of March 19, Bitcoin was holding above its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at $77,250.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, BTC price returns to the 50-week EMA after undergoing strong rallies. The cryptocurrency’s decisive break below the wave support has signaled a bear market in the past, namely the 2018 and 2022 correction cycles.

Source: Milkybull Crypto

A clear breakdown below the wave support could have BTC’s bears eye the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) below $50,000, echoing the downside sentiment discussed in the BofA survey.

Conversely, holding above the 50-week EMA has led prices to new sessional highs, akin to what the market witnessed in 2024. If Bitcoin recovers from the said wave support, its likelihood of testing the $100,000 psychological resistance level is high.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Coin Market

Ex-UFC champ Conor McGregor touts Irish Bitcoin reserve in presidential bid

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UFC fighter turned Irish political candidate Conor McGregor has endorsed the idea of building a Bitcoin reserve in his country to give more “power back to the people.”

“Crypto in it’s origin was founded to give power back to the people. An Irish Bitcoin strategic reserve will give power to the people’s money,” McGregor wrote to X on May 9.

The former UFC champion said he would discuss his plans in more detail in an upcoming X spaces, prompting responses from some of the Bitcoin industry’s most prominent leaders.

Source: Conor McGregor

“We need the greatest minds for this BTC Reserve. Message me and lets chat on my space,” McGregor said in response to Bitcoiner and host of The Pomp Podcast, Anthony Pompliano.

One of US President Donald Trump’s crypto advisors, David Bailey, also reached out, to which McGregor responded: “David message me, let’s discuss your ideas!” 

McGregor announced his independent candidacy for the Irish presidency in late March 2025, centering his campaign on anti-immigration policies and combating crime.

Ireland’s next presidential election must take place by Nov. 11, 2025, as the term of the current President, Michael D. Higgins, is set to end the day after.

Establishing a Bitcoin reserve — let alone one coming from a minor, independent party — would be no easy feat.

Despite recent regulatory progress, the US, El Salvador and Bhutan are among the few countries that have established a Bitcoin reserve to date.

Related: US has ‘countless’ ways to bolster Bitcoin reserve: Bo Hines

McGregor’s political visibility was recently boosted by a trip to the White House, where he met Trump and received his support.

However, McGregor is facing intense scrutiny in Ireland, having recently been found guilty of sexual assault in a civil case — a conviction which he has since appealed — while also previously being investigated for hate speech crimes.

McGregor’s last crypto endeavor failed

McGregor’s push for a Bitcoin reserve comes a little over a month after the McGregor-backed REAL project failed to attract sufficient funding in its token launch pre-sale, prompting a full refund to all token bidders.

The team behind the project, Real World Gaming, only raised $392,315 over a 28-hour presale on April 5 and 6, less than half of the $1 million minimum requirement that it initially set.

Source: Conor McGregor

Magazine: Adam Back says Bitcoin price cycle ’10x bigger’ but will still decisively break above $100K

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El Salvador stacks 7 Bitcoin in last week, despite IMF deal

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The government of El Salvador continues stacking Bitcoin (BTC) for its national crypto reserve, despite an ongoing deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stipulating that the Central American country stop using public funds to purchase Bitcoin as one of the conditions for a loan agreement.

According to data from the El Salvador Bitcoin Office, the country acquired an additional seven BTC in the last seven days, bringing its total holdings to 6,173 BTC, valued at over $637 million.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office has continued its steady pace of Bitcoin acquisitions months after the IMF agreement was signed and shows no sign of halting its Bitcoin purchases.

The Central American country is one of the only nations actively purchasing Bitcoin in open market operations, and its national Bitcoin treasury strategy will serve as a blueprint for other countries also considering Bitcoin strategic reserves, according to crypto industry executives.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings and acquisitions since March 13. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

Related: El Salvador works with Nvidia to develop sovereign AI infrastructure

El Salvador remains defiant against IMF pressure

El Salvador signed a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the IMF in December 2024. As part of that agreement, the government of the country agreed to rescind its Bitcoin legal tender law and make Bitcoin payments voluntary.

The agreement also stipulated that El Salvador must scale back its Bitcoin accumulation, refraining from using public funds to finance Bitcoin purchases. 

Additionally, the deal required the government privatize the Chivo Wallet, which was publicly funded but saw little use among residents.

In January 2025, lawmakers in the Central American country repealed the Bitcoin legal tender law in a 55-2 Congressional vote, although this did nothing to pause or slow Bitcoin acquisitions.

The IMF issued another request to the country to halt Bitcoin buys in March 2025, reiterating the original terms of the agreement. However, El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele pushed back against the requests.

Bukele emphasized that the country would not stop its Bitcoin purchases or slow down its accumulation of BTC in the face of mounting pressure from the supranational financial institution.

“No, it’s not stopping. If it didn’t stop when the world ostracized us and most ‘Bitcoiners’ abandoned us, it won’t stop now, and it won’t stop in the future,” Bukele wrote in a March 4 X post.

Magazine: El Salvador’s national Bitcoin chief has been orange-pilling Argentina

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Bitcoin SV investors attempt to resurrect 2019 Binance lawsuit

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Investors of Bitcoin Satoshi’s Vision (BSV) — a hard fork of Bitcoin Cash (BCH), which itself is a hard fork of the Bitcoin (BTC) protocol, are attempting to revive a 2019 lawsuit against crypto exchange Binance for delisting the altcoin, which the litigants claim stunted the price of BSV.  

According to Law360, attorneys for the plaintiffs argued that a July 2024 decision from the UK Competition Appeal Tribunal dismissing the “loss of chance” claim made against Binance for delisting the token, should be reconsidered. The litigants demanded $9 billion in damages, in the original case.

The investors continue to claim that Binance’s 2019 delisting of BSV and similar major exchange delistings are the primary drivers of BSV’s long-term price decline and its failure to attract the investor attention enjoyed by Bitcoin.

BSV has been in a long-term price decline and has failed to capture investor attention. Source: TradingView

If the coalition of BSV investors manages to push through their legal argument and win in court, they could seek up to 10 billion British pounds (GBP), or roughly $13 billion, in damages from the exchange.

The price of BSV surged by approximately 15% following the news and is currently trading at around $42. However, the altcoin remains in a long-term downtrend and has failed to capture the vast majority of the economic or computing power from the Bitcoin network.

Related: Nike sued for $5 million over its shutdown of NFT platform RTFKT

Binance delists BSV due to founder Craig Wright’s behavior

Binance delisted BSV in April 2019 after announcing that the token failed to meet its listing standards due to the actions of BSV creator Craig Wright, who is infamous in the crypto world for falsely asserting that he is Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

Former CEO of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao warned BSV of an impending delisting if Wright continued to make the claims that he was Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator.

Since that time, BSV has suffered several 51% attacks, a type of exploit where malicious nodes control a majority of the computing power on the network and can double-spend funds — removing one of the core mechanisms that make digital currencies valuable.

Magazine: This is your brain on crypto: Substance abuse grows among crypto traders

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