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‘We are worried about a recession,’ but there’s a silver lining — Cathie Wood

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ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes the White House is underestimating the recession risk facing the US economy stemming from US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies — an oversight that will eventually force the president and Federal Reserve to enact pro-growth policies.

Speaking virtually at the Digital Asset Summit in New York on March 18, Wood said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn’t worried about a recession. 

However, Wood said, “We are worried about a recession,” adding, “We think the velocity of money is slowing down dramatically.”

Cathie Wood speaks virtually at the Digital Asset Summit. Source: Cointelegraph

A slowdown in the velocity of money means capital is changing hands less frequently, which is typically associated with a recession, as consumers and businesses spend and invest less money. 

“I think what’s happening, though, is that if we do have a recession, declining GDP, that this is going to give the president and the Fed many more degrees of freedom to do what they want in terms of tax cuts and monetary policy,” said Wood. 

Investors believe the first domino could fall in the coming months when the Fed puts an end to its quantitative tightening program — something bettors on Polymarket believe is 100% certain to happen before May.

Meanwhile, expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of the year are growing, according to CME Group’s Fed Fund futures prices.

The probability of rates being lower than they are now by the Fed’s June 18 meeting is nearly 65%. Source: CME Group

Related: As Trump tanks Bitcoin, PMI offers a roadmap of what comes next

Focus remains long term

ARK and Cathie Wood have been active cryptocurrency investors for many years. ARK and 21Shares’ spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) was approved on Jan. 11, 2024, and currently has more than $3.9 billion in net assets, according to Yahoo Finance data. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded heavy outflows in recent weeks, but the overall trend shows investors are holding their positions. Source: Farside

ARK also offers crypto portfolio solutions to wealth managers through its partnership with Eaglebrook Advisors. 

Wood told the New York Digital Asset Summit that “long-term innovation wins as we go through these trials and tribulations,” referring to the recent market correction. 

When asked if crypto assets remain an “investable arc” over the long term, Wood said this strategy was the cornerstone of ARK’s investment approach. 

“[W]e’ve built out positions in more than just the big three,” she said, referring to Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

This long-term arc is being supported by favorable regulations, which have improved the investment landscape dramatically. 

Pro-crypto policy changes are “giving institutions the green light, and if you look at our studies as long ago as 2016, we wrote a paper called ‘Bitcoin: Ringing the Bell for a New Asset Class,’ and, yet many institutions just dismissed it out of hand,” said Wood.

Now, institutions are looking at ARK’s studies and saying they “have a fiduciary responsibility to expose [their] clients to a new asset class.”

Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs make Coinbase a ‘honeypot’ for hackers and governments — Trezor CEO

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Bitcoin long-term holder behavior shift signals 'unique market dynamic' — Research

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Bitcoin’s corrective phase set a four-month low at $76,600 on March 11. Despite this decline, long-term holders have continued to hold large amounts of BTC, suggesting a “unique market dynamic moving forward,” new research says.

“Long-Term Holder activity remains largely subdued, with a notable decline in their sell-side pressure,” Glassnode said in a March 18 markets report.

Long-term holders show signs of bullishness

Bitcoin’s recovery comes as selling pressure among Long-Term Holders (LTHs) — wallets that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days — begins to wane. 

The Binary Spending Indicator, a metric used to determine when LTHs are spending a significant proportion of their holdings in a sustained manner, shows a slowdown (see chart below) while the LTH supply is also beginning to rebound after several months of decline.

“This suggests that there is a greater willingness to hold than to spend coins among this cohort,” Glassnode noted, adding:

“This perhaps represents a shift in sentiment, with Long-Term Holder behavior moving away from sell-side distribution.”

Bitcoin: LTH spending binary indicator. Source: Glassnode

Bull market tops are often marked by intense sell-side pressure and strong profit-taking among LTHs, which signals a complete shift to bearish behavior. 

However, despite Bitcoin’s drawdown in recent weeks, this investor cohort continues to hold a large portion of their profits, especially for this later stage of the cycle, Glassnode said.

This could suggest that long-term holders may still be expecting more BTC price upside later in the year.

“This interesting observation may indicate a more unique market dynamic moving forward.”

Bitcoin: Cumulative LTH realized profit. Source: Glassnode

New Bitcoin whale accumulation reshapes markets

New Bitcoin whales, addresses holding at least 1,000 BTC, where each coin has an average acquisition age of less than six months, are aggressively accumulating, according to CryptoQuant data.

This signals strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term outlook among the new large investors.

These wallets have collectively acquired over 1 million BTC since November 2024, “positioning themselves as one of the most influential market participants,” said CryptoQuant independent analyst Onchained in a March 7 analysis.

The chart below shows that their pace has accelerated notably in recent weeks, “accumulating more than 200,000 BTC just this month.”

“This sustained inflow highlights a shift in market dynamics, suggesting increased institutional or high-net-worth participation. ”

Bitcoin supply held by new whales. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, several crypto executives have told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin’s recent price drop was a “normal correction,” with the market just waiting for a new narrative and a cycle top yet to come.

But not everyone agrees. For instance, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju said that the Bitcoin bull cycle is over. He added:

“Expecting 6-12 months of bearish or sideways price action.”

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Solana rallies 8% as crypto markets recover — Is there room for more SOL upside?

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Solana’s native token, SOL (SOL), rose 8% on March 19 as investors turned to riskier assets ahead of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. While interest rates are expected to stay unchanged, analysts anticipate a softer inflation outlook for 2025. Meanwhile, key onchain and derivatives metrics for Solana suggest further upside for SOL price.

The cryptocurrency market mirrored intraday movements in the US stock market, suggesting SOL’s gains were not driven by industry-specific news, such as reports that the US Securities and Exchange Commission may drop its lawsuit against Ripple after clinging to it for four years.

Russell 2000 small-cap index futures (left) vs. SOL/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

On March 19, the Russell 2000 index futures, tracking US-listed small-cap companies, surged to their highest level in twelve days. Despite a broader slowdown in decentralized application (DApp) activity, Solana stands out. 

Solana’s TVL continues to rise

Solana’s onchain volumes dropped 47% over two weeks, but similar declines were seen across Ethereum, Arbitrum, Tron, and Avalanche, highlighting industry-wide trends rather than Solana-specific issues. The Solana network’s total value locked (TVL), a measure of deposits, hit its highest level since July 2022, supporting SOL’s bullish momentum.

Solana total value locked (TVL), SOL. Source: DefiLlama

On March 17, Solana’s TVL climbed to 53.2 million SOL, marking a 10% increase from the previous month. By comparison, BNB Chain’s TVL rose 6% in BNB terms, while Tron’s deposits fell 8% in TRX terms over the same period. Despite weaker activity in decentralized applications (DApps), Solana continued to attract a steady flow of deposits, showcasing its resilience.

Solana saw strong momentum, driven by Bybit Staking, which surged 51% in deposits since Feb. 17, and Drift, a perpetual trading platform, with a 36% TVL increase. Restaking app Fragmentic also recorded a 65% rise in SOL deposits over 30 days. In nominal terms, Solana secured its second-place position in TVL at $6.8 billion, ahead of BNB Chain’s $5.4 billion.

Despite the market downturn, several Solana DApps remain among the top 10 in fees, outperforming larger competitors like Uniswap and Ethereum’s leading staking solutions.

Ranking by 7-day fees, USD. Source: DefiLlama

Solana’s memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, decentralized exchange Jupiter, automated market maker and liquidity provider Meteora, and staking platform Jito are among the leaders in fees. More notably, Solana’s weekly base layer fees have surpassed Ethereum’s, which holds the top position with $53.3 billion in TVL.

SOL derivatives hold steady as token unlock fears subside

Despite a 27% decline in SOL’s price over 30 days, demand for leveraged positions remains balanced between longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers), as indicated by the futures funding rate.

SOL futures 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinGlass

Periods of high demand for bearish bets typically push the 8-hour perpetual futures funding rate to -0.02%, which equals 1.8% per month. When the rate turns negative, shorts are the ones paying to maintain their positions. The opposite occurs when traders are optimistic about SOL’s price, causing the funding rate to rise above 0.02%.

The recent price weakness was not enough to instill confidence in bears, at least not to the extent of adding leveraged positions. One reason for this can be explained by the reduced growth in SOL supply going forward, similar to inflation. A total of 2.72 million SOL will be unlocked in April, but only 0.79 million are expected for May and June.

Ultimately, SOL is well-positioned to reclaim the $170 level last seen on March 3, given the resilience in deposits, the lack of leverage demand from bears, and the reduced supply increase in the coming months.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Crypto regulation must go through Congress for lasting change — Wiley Nickel

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Crypto regulations must be enacted through an act of Congress to become permanent and meaningful pieces of legislation, according to former Congressman Wiley Nickel.

In an exclusive video interview with Cointelegraph’s Turner Wright, Nickel urged bipartisan collaboration to push through comprehensive crypto regulations. The former Congressman added:

“I think it’s really important for anybody who cares about this issue to step back and realize that if you want lasting change in Washington, you must move legislation through Congress. Otherwise, if you’re talking about executive orders, it will just go back and forth.”

“You don’t want to have the mess that we saw just months ago with Gary Gensler’s SEC — you need to get legislation through Congress,” Nickel reiterated.

President Trump’s Jan. 23 executive order establishing the Working Group on Digital Assets, which also prohibited the development of a central bank digital currency (CBDC), and the order establishing a Bitcoin strategic reserve alongside a separate crypto stockpile, were both examples of executive actions that can be reversed at a later date.

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel is pictured sitting second from the left at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit. Source: Cointelegraph

Related: Congress on track for stablecoin, market structure bills by August: Blockchain Association

Both chambers of Congress rush to push through meaningful legislation

Rep. Tom Emmer, the majority whip of the United States House of Representatives, reintroduced legislation banning a CBDC in the US on March 6.

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis also reintroduced the Bitcoin Act in March, which builds upon an earlier bill of the same title but allows the US to purchase more than 1 million Bitcoin (BTC).

Senator Lummis’ Bitcoin Act of 2025. Source: Senator Cynthia Lummis

Rep. Byron Donalds recently announced that he would draft legislation to codify the Bitcoin strategic reserve into law — shielding President Trump’s original executive order from being overturned by a future administration.

On March 12, the House of Representatives repealed the IRS broker rule requiring decentralized finance platforms to report information to the Internal Revenue Service in a 292-131 vote.

Speaking at this year’s Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Democrat Rep. Ro Khanna said that Congress should be able to pass comprehensive crypto regulation in 2025, including a stablecoin bill and a market structure bill.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

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