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Ethereum price in ‘cursed’ downtrend which could continue well into 2025 — Analyst

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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has ventured into oversold territory multiple times against Bitcoin (BTC) in recent months, but the altcoin has yet to show any signs of finding a price bottom. The trading situation is actually quite similar to a previous scenario, and ETH’s market structure suggests that it could repeat itself in Q2 to Q3 of this year.

Ether’s repeat breakdowns point to more downside

The relative strength index (RSI) on ETH’s 3-day timeframe remains below 30, a level that typically signals a potential bounce.

However, historical patterns show that previous dips into oversold conditions have failed to mark a definitive bottom. Each instance has been followed by another leg lower, reflecting persistent bearish momentum.

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Since mid-2024, the ETH/BTC pair has undergone repeat breakdowns, with losses of around 13%, 21%, 25%, and 19.5% occurring in rapid succession. Moreover, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs are trending lower, confirming the lack of bullish strength.

X-based market analyst @CarpeNoctom highlighted ETH’s negative price performance, noting that the ETH/BTC pair has failed to confirm a bullish divergence—when the price makes lower lows but the RSI makes higher lows—on its weekly chart.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoNoctom

ETH ETF outflows and onchain data hint at further weakness

The “cursed” ETH/BTC downtrend stands out when compared to the broader crypto market. This includes persistent outflows witnessed across the US-based spot ETH ETFs, as well as negative onchain data.

The net flows into the spot Ether ETFs have dropped 9.8% in March to $2.54 billion. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF net flows are down 2.35% in the same period to $35.74 billion.

Source: Ted Pillows

Meanwhile, Ethereum’s gas fees—measured by daily median gas consumption on mainnet—were sitting around 1.12 GWEI as of March, down by nearly 50 times what they were just a year ago.

Ethereum median gas fees vs. ETH price (in dollar terms). Source: Nansen

“Despite the second rally of ETH price into 2024 year end, activity on mainnet as measured by gas consumption never fully recovered,” data analytics platform Nansen wrote in its latest report, adding:

“This is downstream of a few things but much of the activity has shifted to Solana and L2s over 2024.”

Nansen argued that they remain cautiously bearish on ETH due to its unfavorable risk/reward ratio compared to BTC and lower-valued altcoins with niche market focus.

A lack of demand for ETH relative to Bitcoin is further visible in its future volume data.

Notably, Bitcoin futures volume has rebounded 32% from its Feb. 23 lows, reaching $57 billion on March 18. In comparison, ETH’s trading activity remains mostly flat, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana futures volume. Source: Glassnode

The ETH/BTC pair could drop another 15%

ETH/BTC pair is forming a bear pennant pattern on the daily chart, characterized by a period of consolidation within converging trendlines forming after a steep decline.

Related: Standard Chartered drops 2025 ETH price estimate by 60% to $4K

A bear pennant technically resolves when the price drops below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend’s height. Applying the same rule on ETH/BTC brings its downside target for April to 0.01968 BTC, down 15% from the current levels.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Furthermore, the 50-day and 200-day EMAs remain in a sharp downward trajectory, with the ETH/BTC pair trading far below these key levels, signaling a persistent bear market structure.

Despite the looming downside risk, a bullish invalidation could occur if ETH/BTC breaks above the pennant’s upper resistance and flips the 50-day EMA into support.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Cathie Wood to kick off El Salvador's AI public education program

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Cathie Wood, founder of the Ark Invest investment firm, will give the inaugural lecture for El Salvador’s new Urban Centers for Welfare and Opportunities (CUBO) AI program, a public education initiative spearheaded by the government of El Salvador.

According to El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the program will bring university-level AI courses to students and professionals and follows the country’s highly successful CUBO Bitcoin (BTC) and Lightning Network developer program.

The program will leverage industry experts to provide AI education to the public. El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office wrote in a March 23 X post:

“As El Salvador turbocharges its transformation into the ultimate tech and financial powerhouse of the region, CUBO AI will arm students and professionals in the country with the tools to dominate the AI frontier.”

El Salvador continues to attract crypto businesses and foreign direct investment as the Central American country positions itself as a regional tech and digital finance hub.

Cathie Wood pictured left, with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele in the center, and economist Art Laffer, on the right, meet in May 2024. Source: El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office

Related: El Salvador acquired over 13 BTC since March 1, despite IMF deal

El Salvador becoming a regional tech hub amid education and investment push

El Salvador has taken several steps to establish itself as a regional hub for innovation, including integrating Bitcoin classes into public education, leveraging geothermal energy to mine BTC, and passing pro-crypto and AI policies.

Cathie Wood met with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele in May 2024 to discuss the future of digital assets and AI policy in the Central American country, including potential education initiatives tailored by Ark Invest.

Wood left the meeting confident that El Salvador could increase its gross domestic product (GDP) tenfold over the next five years if it continues pursuing its tech-focused agenda.

“The President could scale El Salvador’s GDP 10-fold during his next 5-year term,” Wood wrote in a May 2024 X post and praised Bukele as forward-thinking.

Bukele also met with Elon Musk in September 2024 to discuss artificial intelligence and other 21st-century technologies, including crypto.

Musk likewise praised Bukele as “an amazing leader,” and the two continue to build rapport that could potentially lead to collaboration between the businessman and the government of El Salvador.

Magazine: El Salvador’s national Bitcoin chief has been orange-pilling Argentina

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Bitcoin mining hashprice stays flat despite higher difficulty: Report

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The Bitcoin (BTC) mining hashprice — a miner’s daily revenue per unit of hashing power expended to mine blocks — has remained constant at around $48 per petahash per second (PH/s), despite a slight 1.4% uptick in Bitcoin difficulty.

Data from CoinWarz shows that the Bitcoin difficulty climbed to 113.76 trillion at block 889,081 on March 23, up from the 112.1 trillion difficulty in the previous epoch.

According to TheMinerMag, a hashprice below $50 places financial stress on miners running older hardware such as the Antminer S19 XP and S19 Pro.

The older hardware coupled with declining network transaction fees risks pushing some miners into unprofitable territory — forcing them to turn off their hardware until they upgrade their application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) or network conditions change.

Mining firms have been struggling since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving event, which slashed the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC per block mined, generally increasing network difficulty, and the recent downturn in the crypto markets due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin mining difficulty. Source: CoinWarz

Related: SEC says proof-of-work mining does not constitute securities dealing

Miners have a rough start to 2025

Research from financial services firm JPMorgan shows that publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies collectively lost 22% of their share value in February 2025.

Even miners who diversified operations into artificial intelligence and high-performance computing data centers, to shore up revenue lost through mining activities, are facing financial pressures, the JPMorgan report found.

The financial services firm cited the release of DeepSeek R1, an open-source AI model trained for a fraction of the cost as the leading models and performs on par with closed-source AI products, as a strain on large AI data centers.

Although the Bitcoin network’s hashrate oscillates in the short term, the long term trend is up-only. Source: CryptoQuant

A steadily rising network hashrate, which is the sum total computing power in the Bitcoin network, is also creating increased competition among miners, who must expend greater computing resources to remain profitable.

Fears of a prolonged trade war between the United States and Canada, alongside constant tariff headlines, have put miners on edge.

Threats from Canadian officials to levy tariffs on energy exports to the United States place even more pressure on the already struggling industry.

Magazine: Korea to lift corporate crypto ban, beware crypto mining HDs: Asia Express

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Bitcoin price recovery sets base for TON, AVAX, NEAR, OKB to rally

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Bitcoin (BTC) bulls are trying to make a comeback by maintaining the price above the 200-day simple moving average ($84,899) over the weekend. Bitget Research chief analyst Ryan Lee told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to close above $85,000 this week to signal strength and “prevent a drop to $76,000.” Lee added that a close above $87,000 would give a clearer bullish confirmation.

Tariff wars have rocked both traditional markets and the cryptocurrency markets in the past few days. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard believes the markets may remain under pressure until April 2. While speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show, Sondergaard said that if the tariffs get dropped, it could act as “the biggest driver at this moment.”

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

Although analysts remain bullish for the long term, some expect a short-term decline. Analyzing previous bear market declines, market analyst and author Timothy Peterson said in a post on X that the current bear market should only last for 90 days. The analyst anticipates a fall in the “next 30 days followed by a 20-40% rally sometime after April 15th.”

If Bitcoin starts a sustained recovery, several altcoins could follow suit. What are the top cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts?

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin is struggling to rise and sustain above the 20-day exponential moving average ($85,246), but a positive sign is that the bulls have not ceded much ground to the bears.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

That increases the possibility of a break above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($90,469) and thereafter to $95,000.

Conversely, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $81,000, it suggests that the bulls have given up. That could sink the pair to $80,000 and subsequently to $76,606. Buyers are expected to defend the $76,606 level because a break below it may deepen the correction. There is strong support at $73,777, but if the level falls, the next stop could be $67,000.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Both moving averages are flattish, but the relative strength index (RSI) has risen into the positive zone. That suggests the bullish momentum is picking up. The first sign of strength will be a close above $87,500. That could open the gates for a rise to $92,500 and later to $95,000.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears on a break and close below $80,000. That could sink the pair to solid support at $76,606.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) turned down from the $4 level on March 20, but the bulls have held the price above the moving averages.

TON/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover, and the RSI has jumped into the positive zone. That improves the prospects of a break above $4. If that happens, the TON/USDT pair could surge to $5.

This positive view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA ($3.39). That could pull the pair to $2.81 and then to the solid support at $2.73.

TON/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair is taking support at the 20-EMA on the 4-hour chart, signaling that the bulls are buying the dips. However, the bears are unlikely to give up easily. They will fiercely defend the $3.80 to $4 overhead zone. Sellers will be back in command on a break and close below $3.28. That could start a fall toward $2.90.

On the upside, a break and close above $4 signals an advantage to the buyers. There is minor resistance at $4.14, but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may run toward $4.67.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) has been in a strong downtrend, but the positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum may be weakening.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The AVAX/USDT pair has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($19.76), increasing the likelihood of a breakout. If that happens, the pair could climb to the 50-day SMA ($22.41) and subsequently to the $25.12 to $27.23 resistance zone. Such a move suggests that the downtrend could be ending.

On the other hand, the downtrend may resume if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the $15.27 support. That could extend the decline to $11.

AVAX/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The pair has been trading inside a narrow range between $20.10 and $18.12 on the 4-hour chart. The 20-EMA is trying to move up, and the RSI is in the positive territory, giving a slight advantage to the bulls. If the price breaks above $20.10, the pair may ascend to $21.20 and then to $22.50.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below $18.12, it suggests that the bears are trying to retain control. The pair may slump to $16.95 and eventually to $15.27.

Related: Why is Bitcoin price stuck?

Near Protocol price analysis

Near Protocol (NEAR) has been in a strong downtrend, but it is showing early signs of starting a reversal.

NEAR/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The positive divergence on the RSI suggests that the bears are losing their grip. A break and close above the 50-day SMA ($3.05) could strengthen the bulls, opening the gates for a rally to $3.65. Sellers are expected to aggressively defend the $3.65 level, but if the bulls prevail, the NEAR/USDT pair may rise to $5.

Contrarily, if the price turns down and breaks below $2.48, it suggests that the bears remain in control. The pair could then drop to the solid support at $2.14.

NEAR/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The 4-hour chart has been trading above the 20-EMA, indicating that the bulls are holding on to their positions as they anticipate another leg higher. A break above $2.83 could start a move toward $3.25. Sellers are expected to defend the $3.25 level, but if the bulls pierce the resistance, the next stop could be $3.65.

This optimistic view will be negated in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages. The pair may decline to $2.48 and, after that, to $2.34.

OKB price analysis

OKB (OKB) has been trading inside a descending channel pattern, indicating buying near the support line and selling close to the resistance line.

OKB/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The OKB/USDT pair picked up momentum after breaking out of the 20-day EMA ($48.39) on March 14. The pair is facing selling near $$54, which could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA. A shallow pullback suggests that the bulls are not rushing to the exit, increasing the possibility of a rally to the resistance line.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price continues lower and breaks below the 50-day SMA ($47.56), it signals that the bears remain active at higher levels. The pair may then tumble to $45.

OKB/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Sellers are trying to pull the price below the 50-SMA on the 4-hour chart. If they succeed, it could weaken the bullish momentum. There is support at $48, but if the level breaks down, the pair could drop to $45.

Instead, a solid bounce off the 50-SMA suggests that the sentiment remains positive and bulls are buying on dips. The up move could resume above $54, opening the doors for a rally to the resistance line.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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