Key points:

Bitcoin all-time highs matter little to those seeing a BTC price correction as long overdue.

Both the latest surge and the bull market itself are on borrowed time, traders say.

Comparisons to previous price cycles remain in use despite the booming institutional investment scene.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are calling for a pullback after all-time highs and seven “green” weekly candles.

BTC price momentum continues to be met with skepticism as commentators assume that lower levels will come next.

BTC price roadmap prepares for Q4 “cycle peak”

Bitcoin hit its highest-ever levels this week, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed — but despite being up by a third in Q2 already, BTC/USD remains unconvincing for many.

Long-term analysis suggests that not only is price action due to return lower to consolidate gains, but that the entire bull market is near completion.

Among the latest prognoses calling for a “sanity check” is that of trading resource Stockmoney Lizards.

In one of its latest posts on X, it brought back a bull market roadmap from late 2023. 

#Bitcoin

This is our personal roadmap for this cycle. The most important key takeway message:

1. Bullish momentum will continue, driven by mass adoption (ETFs, big institutions buying)

2. We expect volatility and a possible correction in the mid-30ks in Q1 2024

3. New ATH in… pic.twitter.com/t9xJYCsUSU

— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) December 31, 2023

“In December 2023 we posted this BTC roadmap (lower picture). I overlayed the actual chart with the same TF. Price is a bit lower, however, timelines are fairly accurate,” it said.

The chart itself shows Bitcoin’s next “cycle peak” coming in Q4 this year, with the subsequent bear market taking BTC/USD back to 2021 highs of $69,000.

Others referenced historical BTC price action to argue for a more imminent correction.

Trader Crypto Chase noted that the price is now considerably higher than some typical bull market exponential moving averages (EMAs).

“Every time price deviates FAR outside the EMAs (circled areas), we always see a pullback,” he told X followers. 

“Even if that pullback if brief before more upside, it’s a pullback.”BTC/USD 1-week chart with 21, 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The post acknowledged the presence of increased institutional buying power this cycle, something which could skew price performance in bulls’ favor.

Bitcoin “looks exhausted”

As Cointelegraph reported, various market participants have been expecting a significant comedown this month.

Related: $107K fakeout or new all-time highs? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Support targets include everywhere from $105,000 to $90,000, with proponents seeing little fuel left in the bull market tank.

“This doesn’t mean downside is coming immediately, it just means the bull run is likely coming to an end and I’d rather not take the risk and hold spot here. See 2021 vs now,” fellow trader Roman wrote in an X update on the topic.

Roman described Bitcoin as “looking exhausted” based on relative strength index (RSI) bearish divergences.

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Roman/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Newly updated guidelines from Dubai’s crypto regulator include provisions on real-world asset (RWA) tokenization and clarify rules for issuers. 

On May 19, Dubai’s Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA) released its updated Rulebook for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) operating in the region. The regulator gave market participants until June 19 to comply with the new rules. 

The regulator previously told Cointelegraph that it had enhanced supervisory mechanisms and brought consistency across activity-based rules. One of the more prominent changes includes regulatory clarity on RWA tokens. 

Irina Heaver, partner at the United Arab Emirates-based law firm NeosLegal, told Cointelegraph that the updated rules clarify RWA issuance and distribution. 

“Issuing real-world asset tokens and listing them on secondary markets is no longer theoretical,” Heaver told Cointelegraph. “It’s now a regulatory reality in Dubai and the broader UAE.”

A “viable” path to realize RWA hype

Heaver compared RWAs to security token offerings (STOs), an earlier attempt from the crypto space to tokenize securities like stocks, bonds and real estate investment trusts. However, the UAE crypto lawyer said that STOs “died a peaceful death in 2018 to 2019.” 

The lawyer told Cointelegraph STOs did not work out because of the lack of regulatory clarity, viable secondary market trading venues, institutional investor appetite and liquidity. 

Still, the situation is different for RWAs. Heaver told Cointelegraph that RWAs are the next foundational layer for institutional adoption of blockchain and virtual assets. Heaver said that VARA’s new rules already cover them as Asset-Referenced Virtual Assets (ARVA) tokens. She said: 

“VARA’s newly updated Virtual Asset Issuance Rulebook (May 2025) addresses these failures head-on. Regulated exchanges and broker-dealers in Dubai are now authorized to distribute and list ARVA tokens.”

The lawyer said this solves an issue in jurisdictions like Switzerland, where token issuance is possible, but listing and secondary trading remain unregulated. 

Related: Dubai gov’t agencies to link real estate registry with property tokenization

Lawyer shares requirements for RWA issuers

Heaver said ARVA tokens are defined under Dubai law as representing direct or indirect ownership of real-world assets, granting entitlement to receive or share income and purporting to maintain a stable value by reference to real-world assets or income. 

ARVA tokens are also backed or collateralised by such real-world assets or constitute a derivative, wrapped, duplicated, or fractionalised version of another ARVA. 

The lawyer said issuers must meet specific requirements, including a Category 1 Virtual Asset Issuance license, a comprehensive white paper and a risk disclosure statement. 

In addition, issuers must have a paid-up capital of 1.5 million UAE dirhams (about $408,000) or 2% of reserve assets held. The issuers are also subjected to monthly independent audit obligations and must adhere to ongoing supervisory oversight. 

“VARA is providing regulatory clarity, and it’s giving the industry a viable, enforceable path to turn the hype of RWA tokenization into reality,” Heaver told Cointelegraph. “This matters because it marks a shift, from theory to execution, from fiction to framework.”

Magazine: Danger signs for Bitcoin as retail abandons it to institutions: Sky Wee

David Sacks, US President Donald Trump’s top adviser on crypto and artificial intelligence, said the administration expects the stablecoin bill to clear the Senate with bipartisan backing.

“We have every expectation now that it’s going to pass,” Sacks told CNBC on May 21, following a key procedural vote that saw 15 Democrats join Republicans to clear the filibuster threshold.

The Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act is the most advanced federal effort yet to establish a legal framework for dollar-pegged digital assets.

Sacks said the bill could trigger “trillions of dollars” in demand for US Treasurys by unlocking stablecoin growth under clear rules.

“We already have over $200 billion in stablecoins — it’s just unregulated,” he added. “If we provide legal clarity, we create enormous demand for Treasurys practically overnight.”

Related: GENIUS Act ‘legitimizes’ stablecoins for global institutional adoption

Stablecoin bill moves forward despite Trump controversy

The stablecoin bill’s progress comes despite controversy surrounding the Trump family’s crypto dealings. Critics have raised concerns that the administration benefits from the legislation, given its ties to World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm backed by Trump family members that recently launched a stablecoin, USD1.

The US Senate voted 66–32 to advance debate on the GENIUS stablecoin bill. Source: US Senate

The token is backed by US Treasurys and dollar deposits and has received a $2 billion investment commitment from Abu Dhabi’s MGX fund via Binance.

Sacks, who disclosed the sale of $200 million in crypto-related holdings before joining the White House, declined to comment on whether the president or his family may financially gain from the bill’s passage.

Despite momentum, final passage is not guaranteed. Senator Josh Hawley has added a controversial provision to the bill that would cap credit card late fees, a move that could cost the legislation support from financial industry allies.

Related: Hong Kong passes stablecoin bill, set to open licensing by year-end

Banks panicking over yield-bearing stablecoins

In a May 21 post titled “The Empire Lobbies Back,” New York University professor Austin Campbell said the US banking industry is “panicking” over the rise of yield-bearing stablecoins, which threaten their profit model.

An excerpt of Campbell’s X post. Source: Austin Campbell

Campbell criticized the banking lobby for pressuring lawmakers to defend their interests and block competition from interest-paying stablecoins.

He argued that banks rely on fractional reserve practices to profit while offering low returns to depositors, and fear stablecoins may expose and disrupt that system.

As reported by Cointelegraph, the US Securities and Exchange Commission in February approved the first yield-bearing stablecoin security by Figure Markets.

According to a May 21 report from Pendle, yield-bearing stablecoins have soared to $11 billion in circulation since January 2024, representing 4.5% of the total stablecoin market.

Magazine: TradFi is building Ethereum L2s to tokenize trillions in RWAs: Inside story