Bitcoin’s (BTC) price failed another attempt at breaking above resistance at $85,000 on March 17. Since March 12, BTC price formed daily candle highs between $84,000 and $85,200, but has been unable to close above $84,600.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin remains in “no man’s land” on the lower time frame (LTF) of the 1-hour chart. This term in trading markets is defined as a price range where movements are characterized by uncertainty, significant risk, and dynamic tension due to external events and conflicting market sentiment.
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting set to take place on March 18-19, markets could see volatile price swings toward key BTC price levels over the next few days. The critical announcement on the interest rate will be made on March 19 at 2 pm ET.
99% chance interest rates won’t change
According to CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the current interest rates will remain between 4.25% and 4.50%, leaving just a 1% probability of a 0.25% rate cut.
CME’s FedWatchtool interest rate expectations. Source: CME Group
However, a common market belief is that any bearish price action from unchanged interest rates is already priced in.
Related: Bitcoin price fails to go parabolic as the US Dollar Index (DXY) falls — Why?
Therefore, the market is focused on Jerome Powell, the US Fed chair’s speech during the FOMC speech. With respect to the recent data, Powell’s stance is likely to be hawkish. The assessment is based on the following points:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains at 2.8%, which is still above the Fed’s 2% primary target and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index stood at 2.5%-2.6%. While CPI came in lower than expected last week, it does not encourage immediate rate cuts.
Unemployment data remains low at 4.1%, with an annual GDP growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024, indicating the economy does not need immediate stimulus.
Meanwhile, Polymarket now says there’s a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will conclude quantitative tightening (QT) by April 30, which would boost the odds of a rate cut as early as this summer.
Key Bitcoin price levels to watch
Bitcoin must flip the $85,000 resistance level into support to target higher highs at $90,000.
For this to happen, BTC/USD must first regain its position above the 200-day exponential moving average (orange line) on the 1-day chart. BTC price dropped below the 200-day EMA on March 9 for the first time since August 2024.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
One positive catalyst for the bulls could be renewed demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs. On March 17, Bitcoin ETFs registered $274 million in inflows, the largest since Feb. 4.
The bears, meanwhile, will attempt to keep $85,000 resistance in place, increasing the likelihood of new lows under $78,000. The immediate target below previous range lows lies at $74,000, i.e., the previous all-time high from early 2024.
Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Below $74,000, the next key area of interest remains between $70,530 and $66,810, with a daily order block. Reaching $69,272 would be a retest of the US election day price, erasing all of the “Trump pump” gains.
SuperBitcoinBro, an anonymous BTC analyst, highlights that the “worst case” scenario for Bitcoin lies at $71,300 and $73,800, which can be a potential support in every timeframe from daily to quarterly.
Bitcoin 1-day chart analysis by Nebraskangooner. Source: X.com
Similarly, Nebraskangooner, another popular Bitcoin analyst, says that the FOMC is a wildcard, explaining that BTC must reclaim $86,250 to confirm the bullish scenario on the lower time frame.
Related: ‘Bitcoin bull cycle is over,’ CryptoQuant CEO warns, citing onchain metrics
However, as illustrated in the charts, he expects a possible retest near the $70,000 level over the next few weeks.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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