Coin Market

Polymarket bettors say there’s a 100% chance the Fed ends QT before May

Published

2 weeks ago

March 17, 2025

Betters on Polymarket believe it’s now a certainty that the US Federal Reserve will wind down its quantitative tightening (QT) program by May of this year, a move many analysts say could trigger the next leg of the crypto bull market.

By March 14, Polymarket’s betting odds that the Fed would end QT by April 30 was 100%, where it remains unchanged at the time of writing.

The wager, titled “Will Fed end QT before May?,” has more than $6.2 million in cumulative trading volume.

Polymarket users have assigned a 100% probability that the Fed will end quantitative tightening in the coming months. Source: Polymarket

Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market that lets betters wager on real-world events. It rose to prominence during the 2024 US presidential election cycle, where it accurately predicted the ascent of Donald Trump.

Quantitative tightening is a monetary policy tool used by the Fed to draw money out of the economy by letting the bonds on its balance sheet mature. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing or the balance sheet expansion that the central bank embarked on following the 2008 financial crisis.

The Fed’s current QT regime has been ongoing since June 2022 as a complement to other inflation-reducing policies. In addition to raising short-term interest rates, the Fed uses QT to raise long-term rates and drain excess liquidity from the market.

Although the start of QT didn’t prevent stocks and crypto prices from rallying — these markets are coming off back-to-back years of impressive growth — it has become a bottleneck due to the recent macroeconomic shocks stemming from the Trump administration.

This was predicted in 2022 by Cambridge Associates senior investment director TJ Scavone, who said the negative side effects of QT would be felt once “something breaks”:

“With QT just now ramping up, the risk it poses to financial markets appears low. Yet, adding QT to what is an already difficult and volatile market environment may worsen market conditions, increasing the risk that “something breaks” from overtightening.”

QT and crypto

Crypto’s strong correlation with traditional markets exposed the asset class to extreme volatility in February. By March, the S&P 500 Index was officially in correction territory — and Bitcoin (BTC) was down roughly 30% from its January peak.

The growing belief that the Fed is ready to wind down QT is seen by many as a bullish catalyst for crypto, as more liquidity will eventually trickle down into risk assets. Combined with rate cuts in the second half of the year, there may be enough policy drivers to reverse the crypto market’s multimonth downtrend.

This general playbook is supported by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who believes the end of QT will be followed by a broad market rally.

Source: Benjamin Cowen

Although the Fed hasn’t confirmed whether it will wind down its QT program, the minutes of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting revealed that some officials were concerned about balance sheet reductions impacting the government’s debt ceiling debate:

“Regarding the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event.”

Important policy changes at the Fed are coinciding with a broad pickup in the business cycle. As Cointelegraph recently reported, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been in expansion mode for two consecutive months following more than two years of contraction.

During the last two crypto market cycles, Bitcoin’s peak coincided with the top of the business cycle, as expressed by the manufacturing PMI.

Bitcoin’s price exhibits a strong correlation with the ISM manufacturing PMI. Source: TomasOnMarkets

X Hall of Flame: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov

Coin Market

Is XRP price around $2 an opportunity or the bull market's end? Analysts weigh in

Published

42 minutes ago

March 30, 2025

XRP (XRP) has dropped nearly 40% to around $2.19, two months after hitting a multi-year high of $3.40. The cryptocurrency is tracking a broader market sell-off driven by President Donald Trump’s trade war despite bullish news like the SEC dropping its case against Ripple.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

However, XRP is still up 350% from its November 2024 low of $0.50, suggesting a consolidation phase after a strong rally. This sideways action has sparked discussions over whether it’s the end of the bull run or a prime buying opportunity.

No buying opportunity until XRP falls further

XRP has been consolidating between $1.77 (support) and $3.21 (resistance) since January, with repeated rejections near the top of the range and fading bullish momentum.

According to analyst CrediBULL Crypto, XRP’s recent bounce attempt stalled below $2.20, reinforcing bearish control. He now expects the price to revisit the range lows around $1.77 for a potential long entry.

XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

The rectangle-shaped green support area on the chart extends as low as $1.50, signaling a high-demand zone where bulls could step in.

A short-term marketwide bounce—led primarily by Bitcoin (BTC)—could trigger a temporary recovery, argues CrediBULL, emphasizing that only a clean breakout above $3.21 would confirm a bullish trend reversal.

Until then, XRP remains in a sideways structure, with CrediBULL’s strategy focused on watching for reactions at the $1.77 support level before committing to a long position.

Source: X

XRP bull flag may lead to 450% price rally

CrediBULL highlighted XRP’s sideways range between $1.77 and $3.21 as a consolidation zone, waiting for a clear breakout to confirm the next trend. Interestingly, that very range may be forming a bull flag, according to analyst Stellar Babe.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/Stellar Babe

A bull flag forms when the price consolidates inside a parallel channel after undergoing a strong uptrend. It resolves when the price breaks above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the previous uptrend’s height.

Stellar Babe’s analysis notes that If XRP breaks above the flag’s upper boundary range at $3.21. Its projected target, based on the height of the flagpole, is around $12, up around 450% from current prices.

XRP’s five-year channel hints at rally to $6.50

XRP is currently consolidating within a long-term bullish structure, according to a recent analysis by InvestingScoope.

The chart shows XRP trading inside a five-year ascending channel, with the current move resembling the March 2020 to April 2021 rally based on price behavior and momentum indicators.

XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/InvestingScoope

Despite the pullback, the broader bullish cycle stays intact as long as XRP holds above the 50-week moving average (1W MA50).

InvestingScoope notes that this phase mirrors March 2021, which preceded a strong breakout. If the pattern continues, XRP price could be preparing for its next leg up with a potential target of $6.50 in the months ahead.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Coin Market

Stablecoin rules needed in US before crypto tax reform, experts say

Published

2 hours ago

March 30, 2025

United States cryptocurrency regulations need more clarity on stablecoins and banking relationships before lawmakers prioritize tax reform, according to industry leaders and legal experts.

“In my view, tax isn’t necessarily the priority for upgrading US crypto regulation,” according to Mattan Erder, general counsel at layer-3 decentralized blockchain network Orbs.

A “tailored regulatory approach” for areas including securities laws and removing “obstacles in banking” is a priority for US lawmakers with “more upside” for the industry, Erder told Cointelegraph.

“The new Trump administration is clearly all in on crypto and is taking steps that we could have only dreamed about a few years ago (including during his first term),” he said. “It seems likely that crypto regulation will be able to have it all and get much more clear and rational regulation in all areas, including tax.”

Still, Erder noted there are limits to what President Donald Trump can accomplish through executive orders and regulatory agency action alone. “At some point, the laws themselves will need to change, and for that, he will need Congress,” he said.

Trump’s March 7 executive order, which directed the government to establish a national Bitcoin reserve using crypto assets seized in criminal cases, was seen as a signal of growing federal support for digital assets.

Debanking concerns remain

Despite the administration’s recent pro-crypto moves, industry experts say crypto firms may continue to face difficulties with banking access until at least January 2026.

“It’s premature to say that debanking is over,” as “Trump won’t have the ability to appoint a new Fed governor until January,” Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction daily X show.

The Crypto Debanking Crisis: #CHAINREACTION https://t.co/nD4qkkzKnB

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) March 21, 2025

Industry outrage over alleged debanking reached a crescendo when a June 2024 lawsuit spearheaded by Coinbase resulted in the release of letters showing US banking regulators asked certain financial institutions to “pause” crypto banking activities.

Stablecoin legislation could unlock new growth

David Pakman, managing partner at crypto investment firm CoinFund, said a stablecoin regulatory framework could encourage more traditional finance institutions to adopt blockchain-based payments.

“Some of the potentially soon-to-pass legislation in the US, like the stablecoin bill, will unlock many of the traditional banks, financial services and payment companies onto crypto rails,” Pakman said during Cointelegraph’s Chainreaction live X show on March 27.

“We hear this firsthand when we talk to them; they want to use crypto rails as a lower-cost, transparent, 24/7, and no middleman-dependent network for transferring money.”

The comments come as the industry awaits progress on US stablecoin legislation, which may come as soon as in the next two months, according to Bo Hines, the executive director of the president’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets.

The GENIUS Act, an acronym for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, would establish collateralization guidelines for stablecoin issuers while requiring full compliance with Anti-Money Laundering laws.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered

Coin Market

Vitalik Buterin meows at a robot, and the crypto world loses it

Published

7 hours ago

March 30, 2025

A video of Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin kneeling in front of a robot and seemingly letting out a “meow” sound has gone viral — and, as usual, the crypto industry is already speculating what it might mean for Ether’s future.

“The future of Ethereum is in this man’s hands… Meow,” crypto influencer Wendy O said in a March 29 X post. Cork Protocol co-founder Phil Fogel shared the video and commented that “so much” of his professional life and net worth depend on Buterin but reiterated that the entertaining interaction makes him “bullish.”

Community links video to Ether price speculation

Pseudonymous crypto trader Scott Crypto Warrior shared the video with his 514,300 X followers and said, “Pray for our ETH bags.”

The short clip shows Buterin on his knees, gesturing at a four-legged robot and letting out what sounds like a “meow” before patting it on the head. At the time of publication, Buterin has yet to address the video on social media himself.

Source: Rinor

Many of those commenting on the video allude to having Ether (ETH) in their portfolio, while its relative strength against Bitcoin (BTC) is at its lowest value in almost five years.

Crypto commentator, The Count of Monte Crypto said in a March 29 X post,” Sure, the man is free to do whatever he wants, why should we care, why should we care, however, the fact that a vast majority of my investment relies on this guy is making me a bit stressed.”

Pseudonymous crypto trader “sgp” said, “while Ethereum is doing -5% 1-minute candles, Vitalik is busy meowing at a robot.”

Source: Ali Bryant

Buterin’s quirky antics have always entertained the crypto industry. At Token2049 Singapore in September 2024, Buterin called out some “cringe” anthems for crypto projects and even started singing on stage, receiving a positive reaction from both the live audience and those on social media.

Meanwhile, since Ether reclaimed the $4,000 price level in December 2024, it has dropped nearly 55%.

At the time of publication, Ether is trading at $1,841, down 13.34% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Ether is trading at $1,841 at the time of publication. Source: CoinMarketCap

Ether sitting below $2,000 has crypto trader Alex Becker convinced it is a prime long-term buying opportunity.

“I can’t fathom looking at a sub $2k ETH and thinking you’re not going to be in big profit sometime in the next 2 years. Easiest asset trade in biblical history right now,” Becker said in a March 29 X post.

Meanwhile, Castle Island Ventures’ Nic Carter recently said that Ether’s declining appeal as an investment comes from layer-2s draining value from the main network and a lack of community pushback on excessive token creation.

Magazine: Bitcoin ATH sooner than expected? XRP may drop 40%, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 23 – 29