Bitcoin needs to close above the key $81,000 weekly level to avoid more downside volatility ahead of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will offer investors more cues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy for 2025.

Bitcoin (BTC) price fell over 3% during the past week, to trade above $83,748 as of 9:33 a.m. in UTC, Cointelegraph Markets Pro data shows.

Bitcoin price continues to risk significant downside volatility due to growing macroeconomic uncertainty around global trade tariffs,  according to Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget Research.

BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph

Closing the week above $81,000 will be key to avoid more Bitcoin downside, the analyst told Cointelegraph, adding:

“The key level to watch for the weekly close is $81,000 range, holding above that would signal resilience, but if we see a drop below $76,000, it could invite more short-term selling pressure.”

The analyst’s comments come days ahead of the next FOMC meeting scheduled for March 19. Markets are currently pricing in a 98% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates steady, according to the latest estimates of the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Source: CME Group’s FedWatch tool

The outcome of the meeting may significantly impact Bitcoin investor sentiment, said Lee, adding:

“The market largely expects the Fed to hold rates steady, but any unexpected hawkish signals could put pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.”

“Even a dovish surprise, like a rate cut, might not be the immediate boost some are hoping for, as investors are still weighing macro uncertainties,” added the analyst.

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

Bitcoin close above $85k may reignite investor optimism for more upside: analyst

Other analysts are seeing a silver lining in Bitcoin’s stagnant price action.

A weekly close above $85,000 may inspire more investor confidence and lead to the next breakout, according to Enmanuel Cardozo, market analyst at Brickken real-world asset tokenization platform.

The market analyst told Cointelegraph:

“Traders and investors alike are keeping a close eye on the $80,000 support and the $85,000–$90,000 resistance, with a break above the latter potentially sparking a strong upward movement.”

While Bitcoin’s short-term momentum may be limited by the upcoming economic releases, the regulatory developments around Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan may gradually bring more market optimism and mass adoption, added the analyst.

Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension

Trump’s Bitcoin reserve came one step closer to fruition on March 14, after US Representative Byron Donalds introduced a bill that seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.

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10x Research’s head crypto researcher isn’t ruling out Bitcoin repeating its 2024 price action, where it spent much of the year consolidating after hitting all-time highs early on.

“Very possible,” Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph when asked what the chances of Bitcoin (BTC) repeating a similar market movement to 2024, where it reached an all-time high of $73,679 in March before entering a consolidation phase, swinging within a range of around $20,000 up until Donald Trump was elected as US president in November.

Bitcoin’s current chart signals “market indecision”

Thielen said he had this thought even two months ago, around the time Bitcoin hit its current all-time high of $109,000 on the day of Trump’s inauguration.

He explained in his most recent market report on March 15 that Bitcoin’s current chart resembles a “High and Tight Flag,” which, despite typically being a bullish continuation pattern, shows signs of weakness.

Bitcoin’s price chart is forming a High, Tight Flag Pattern. Source: 10x Research

“Two flags instead of a single, precise formation weakens this setup,” Thielen said.

“As a result, the pattern currently suggests market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation,” he added.

Meanwhile, he also pointed out that the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market shows no signs of a “buy-the-dip” mentality.

“Little incentive” to take advantage of Bitcoin’s recent price dip

“This aligns with our view that most ETF flows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s little incentive or willingness to deploy additional capital despite the recent price correction,” Thielen said.

Since the beginning of March, when Bitcoin fell below $90,000, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have recorded total outflows of around $1.66 billion, according to Farside data.

Bitcoin is trading at $84,290 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. This represents a 23% decline from its $109,000 January all-time high.

Bitcoin is down 12.86% over the past month. Source: CoinMarketCap

Thielen is unsure if Bitcoin’s uptrend will resume in the short term. ”Therefore, it may be prudent to close short positions at this stage, although there remains little evidence to support a strong price recovery,” Thielen said.

Related: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks — Research

Ever since Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Feb. 28 — the first time since November — amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, several crypto analysts have been predicting further downfall for the asset.

On March 10, BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said “it looks like Bitcoin will retest $78,000.” “If it fails, $75,000 is next in the crosshairs,” he added.

Meanwhile, Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset investment platform Nexo, told Cointelegraph on March 11 that the low $70,000 range could “provide a foundation for a more sustainable recovery.”

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The major disconnect between crypto traders’ growing short-term market uncertainty and crypto builders becoming more bullish than ever creates a prime setup for long-term investors, according to a crypto hedge fund founder.

“This is one of the starkest divergences I’ve seen in sentiment and fundamentals,” BlockTower Capital founder Ari Paul said in a March 14 X post.

Optimism grows among those beyond crypto natives

Paul said that while traders and analysts have turned bearish on crypto recently, crypto developers — and more broadly, those working for crypto companies less focused on the market cycle itself — remain much more bullish.

“All the data points I’m hearing from basically any crypto-related project or company that doesn’t rely on “natives” near-term is positive,” Paul said.

Source: Nic Puckrin

Based on this, he’s confident that crypto is a “good buy” over the “12 month timeframe” but isn’t sure if it has reached a short-term bottom yet. Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland recently said the only way for Bitcoin to confirm that the bottom is actually in would be to close a week back above $89,000.

However, on March 14, the broader crypto market rose slightly, giving traders a bit more short-term confidence.

Bitcoin (BTC) spiked 3.16% to $84,638 over the 24 hour period, while Ether (ETH) rose 1.79% and XRP (XRP) jumped 6.01%, according to CoinMarketCap.

Over the same 24 hours, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, surged 19 points to 46, which is still in the “Fear” zone but nearing neutral territory.

Source: Dan McArdle

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s price spike over the past 24 hours has strengthened his confidence in the asset resuming its uptrend by June.

Crypto market presenting opportunity for “sustainable value” investments

“Clearly made a higher low, clearly touching the highs,” van de Poppe said in a March 14 X post.

Related: Bitcoin bull market in peril as US recession and tariff worries loom

“It’s very likely that we’re starting a new uptrend on the lower timeframes going into a good Q2,” he added.

Paul also said it may be the right time to explore traditional venture capital crypto investments with a longer-term outlook.

“A good time to be looking for “traditional” style VC crypto investments.  By “traditional” I mean longer term, genuinely focusing on sustainable value creation, no quick monetization scheme,” Paul said.

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