Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG), the company that owns US President Donald Trump’s Truth Social platform and is partially owned by the president, confirmed a $2.5 billion capital raise to purchase Bitcoin (BTC) after denying earlier reports of the deal.

According to a May 27 announcement from the company, the capital raise comprises a $1.5 billion stock sale and $1 billion in convertible senior secured bonds, with a 0% coupon. The sale is expected to close on May 29. TMTG CEO Devin Nunes said:

“We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom, and now Trump Media will hold cryptocurrency as a crucial part of our assets. This investment will help defend our Company against harassment and discrimination by financial institutions.”

TMTG spokespeople responded to the initial report from the Financial Times, published a day before the announcement, with derision.

“Apparently, the Financial Times has dumb writers listening to even dumber sources,” TMTG representatives told the FT.

Shares of TMTG sank following the $2.5 billion capital raise announcement. Source: TradingView

Shares of TMTG fell by over 12% following the announcement and were trading around $23.60 at the time of publication.

The funding deal comes as a growing number of corporations and countries adopt Bitcoin treasury strategies as the digital asset matures into a financial instrument of geopolitical importance.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

Bitcoin treasury companies keep stacking

Several Bitcoin treasury companies increased their holdings in May this year, including Michael Saylor’s Strategy. According to SaylorTracker, the company acquired an additional 4,020 BTC on May 26.

Technology company Semler Scientific purchased 455 BTC, valued at over $50 million, for its treasury, an acquisition the company disclosed in a May 23 filing.

Investment firm MetaPlanet, widely regarded by investors as Japan’s MicroStrategy, acquired an additional 1,004 BTC on May 19.

Market analyst Jesse Myers recently predicted that at the current rate of institutional accumulation, large entities will own 50% of the total Bitcoin supply by 2045.

Myers added that this growth in institutional adoption is driven by a flight to safety from traditional asset classes.

“Over the last two years, an exodus from fiat assets — bonds and money — has already begun. Hard money assets, BTC and gold, are where things are shifting,” the analyst wrote in a May 22 X post.

Magazine: Metric signals $250K Bitcoin is ‘best case,’ SOL, HYPE tipped for gains: Trade Secrets

Key takeaways:

Institutional investor demand and corporate adoption may push Bitcoin higher despite recession fears.

Investors’ belief that the US Federal Reserve will hold rates favors Bitcoin price upside.

Stock markets around the world responded positively to the temporary suspension of import tariffs between the United States and the European Union, with the S&P 500 rising 1.5% on May 27. However, concerns over a global economic recession persist, capping Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside, especially since the baseline US import rates have been raised for most regions.

Bitcoin remains antifragile and poised to outperform in uncertain times

Given the growing investor uncertainty about economic conditions, Bitcoin hovering around the $110,000 level has taken investors by surprise as it consolidates the top-6 position as a global tradable asset by market capitalization. Investors now ask whether Bitcoin is becoming antifragile or if a drop below $100,000 is inevitable in a recessionary environment.

Traders currently estimate a 41% chance that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates through September, a steep rise from just 2% one month ago. 

CME FEDWatch target rate probabilities. Source: CME

Normally, a higher cost for capital is bearish for risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, in this context, it also suggests potential liquidity injections from the Fed, given the unfavorable US fiscal outlook, where government spending exceeds revenue capacity.

US President Donald Trump has called for lower interest rates, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell remains cautious due to a strong labor market and rising inflation pressures, whether driven by tariffs or easy credit conditions. This tension helps explain why the S&P 500 has struggled to retake its February all-time high of 6,147 and why Bitcoin’s upside has also been limited.

Bitcoin’s current market capitalization of $2.2 trillion now exceeds that of Google and Meta, which partially explains the $112,000 resistance level. Still, it would be inaccurate to suggest Bitcoin has decoupled from traditional markets; its 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 has remained above 70% over the past four weeks. As such, if equities enter a bear market, Bitcoin is likely to face downside as well.

30-day correlation: Bitcoin/USD vs. S&P 500 futures. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Companies are currently reporting earnings for the first quarter, a period that predates the escalation of the trade war. As a result, the stock market may take longer to reflect the full negative impact, even as macroeconomic indicators show signs of contraction. The 6.3% drop in US durable goods orders in April, reported on May 27, could be the first signal of a weakening economy.

US durable goods–new orders for April. Source: US Census Bureau

However, even if corporate earnings for the first quarter fall short of expectations, this does not automatically mean the S&P 500 will suffer significantly. In fact, disappointing results could open the door for faster interest rate cuts, which tend to benefit companies by lowering financing costs and potentially stimulating consumer demand.

Bitcoin’s appeal as a strategic asset grows, Trump Media joins the party

Bitcoin’s risk profile appears to have improved after Trump Media and Technology Group announced plans to acquire BTC following a $2.5 billion mix of debt and equity financing. “We view Bitcoin as an apex instrument of financial freedom,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said, according to Reuters. This development suggests that Bitcoin’s trajectory toward $112,000 is not solely tied to broader economic growth.

Related: Bitcoin stalls at $110K but institutional investors continue gobbling up BTC

The growing institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin adds a new dimension to its market behavior. While macroeconomic trends and correlations with traditional assets still matter, Bitcoin is increasingly being framed as a strategic asset with utility beyond speculation. As such, its performance could diverge, at least partially, from that of equities, especially as adoption broadens among influential companies and investors.

While the stock market may remain sensitive to macro data and earnings surprises, Bitcoin’s upside potential appears to rest on a mix of monetary policy, institutional positioning, and its emerging role as a hedge against systemic financial risk.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin could turn parabolic if prices move above $115,000 to liquidate more than $7 billion in short positions.

Onchain indicators enter overheated territory, suggesting prolonged profit-taking from BTC investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on May 27, briefly tagging $110,700 after a strong US equities market open and the Trump Media and Technology Group’s announcement that it would raise $2.5 billion for a Bitcoin treasury.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum aligns with the favorable US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoinometrics. The macroeconomic-focused Bitcoin newsletter highlighted that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025.

The NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks stress in the financial system by aggregating measures like credit spreads, leverage, and funding conditions. When the index moves into looser territory, it reflects easier access to capital and reduced market stress—conditions that typically encourage risk-taking behavior among investors.

For high-beta assets like Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into speculative markets.

US National Financial Conditions Index. Source: Ecoinometrics

Ecoinometrics mentioned that within four weeks, liquidity has returned, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter noted,

“That’s the kind of macro backdrop where Bitcoin thrives. Bitcoin’s rally to new highs didn’t come out of nowhere. It’s tracking the same pattern we saw since 2023: easing conditions → capital rotation → risk-on.”

With Bitcoin just 2% away from its all-time high price, data from CoinGlass indicates that the probability of a short-squeeze remains high due to significant sell-side liquidity. As illustrated below, if Bitcoin breaches $115,000, over $7 billion in short positions could get liquidated, triggering a cascading effect that pushes prices higher.

Bitcoin liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: Bitcoin shows signs of ‘easing momentum’ but traders still expect $150K

Onchain data shows Bitcoin in ‘overheated zone’

While the overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns urge caution. Two key onchain indicators—Supply in Profit Market Bands and the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio—are flashing signals consistent with prior market tops.

The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric tracks how much of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. As of late May 2025, this figure has surged to 19.4 million BTC, nearing historical extremes and entering the “Overheated Zone.” Previously, BTC prices tested this zone on Dec. 17, 2025, which was followed by a price correction to $93,000 from $107,000.

Bitcoin Supply in Profit Market Bands. Source: CryptoQuant

Simultaneously, the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR), which compares profitable versus unprofitable UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), is brushing against its historical ceiling around 0.95—a level frequently preceding sell signals. Red markers on the chart indicate prior instances when such conditions led to local price tops or prolonged consolidations.

Bitcoin Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The above data does not guarantee an immediate drop, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increased volatility and profit-taking in the short-term.

Related: Bitcoin 2024 conference sparked 30% price crash — Can bulls escape this year?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.