Key Takeaways:

Ethereum is forming a bull flag on the daily chart, with a potential breakout above $3,600.

If ETH reclaims the 2-week Gaussian Channel mid-line, a 90% rally could occur.

Ethereum (ETH) price is consolidating between $2,400 and $2,750 on its daily chart, forming a bull flag pattern with sights on the $3,000 to $3,100 resistance zone. A bull flag is a continuation pattern that follows a sharp rally (black flagpole) to $2,730 from $1,900, with the current range forming the flag. 

Ethereum 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A bullish breakout above $2,600 could target $3,600, which is calculated by adding the flagpole height to the breakout point, but the immediate key area of interest remains between the resistance range at $3,100-$3,000. 

The 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) supports the lower range. The relative strength index (RSI), although still near the overbought region, has significantly cooled over the past few days. 

An ETH breakout with rising RSI and volume could confirm the bullish move, while a drop below $2,400 risks invalidating the pattern.

Can Ether reclaim the Gaussian Channel midline?

On May 20, Ether showed a significant trend shift as it attempted to reclaim the mid-line of the 2-week Gaussian Channel, a technical indicator used to identify price trends. The Gaussian or Normal Distribution Channel plots price movements within a dynamic range, adapting to market volatility. 

Historically, when ETH crosses above this mid-line, significant rallies often follow. In 2023, ETH surged 93% to $4,000 after a similar crossover, while in 2020, it skyrocketed by 1,820%, sparking a massive altcoin rally.

Ethereum Gaussian channel analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Conversely, a similar setup in August 2022 led to an invalidation during a market correction, highlighting the risks of relying solely on this indicator.

Likewise, crypto trader Merlijn noted a golden cross between the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA (simple moving average), which could further strengthen an imminent ETH breakout. It is important to note that the golden cross is on a 12-hour chart, which is less dependable than the one-day chart. 

Related: Bitcoin fractal analysis forecasts new all-time highs above $110K by end of week

Traders exercise caution ahead of possible ‘range-bound environment’

Popular crypto trader XO noted that Ethereum is consolidating under a “decent” resistance level below the $2,800 mark. The trader expects a correction if ETH cannot break above $2,800 over the next few days. The analyst said,

“I am leaning toward price carving out a range bound environment for at least several weeks potentially longer, and once again becoming a buyer.”

A contrarian outlook to bulls can also be observed with ETH prices oscillating under the Fibonacci levels. Cointelegraph reported that Ether recently retested the 0.5 to 0.618 Fib levels, which could trigger a short-term correction for ETH. 

In such a scenario, the immediate area of support remains around $2,150 and $1,900, possibly slowing down the bullish momentum for a prolonged period. 

Ethereum 1-week price analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: Why is Ethereum (ETH) price up today?

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin futures open interest hit a record $72 billion, signaling rising use of leverage among institutional investors.

$1.2 billion in shorts at $107,000 to $108,000 are at risk of liquidation, boosting BTC’s breakout odds.

The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures surged to a record high on May 20, raising questions about whether bearish positions are now at risk. Despite repeated failures to break above the $107,000 level since May 18, the sheer volume of leveraged positions could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, USD. Source: CoinGlass

The total open interest in BTC futures climbed to $72 billion on May 20, marking an 8% increase from $66.6 billion just a week earlier. Institutional demand continues to be a major driver of this leverage, with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) leading at $16.9 billion in BTC futures, followed by Binance, which holds $12 billion in open interest.

$1.2 billion in bearish BTC liquidations cluster at $107K–$108K

According to CoinGlass estimates, the largest concentration of bearish BTC futures liquidations is clustered between $107,000 and $108,000, amounting to approximately $1.2 billion.

Bitcoin futures leverage heatmap, USD million. Source: CoinGlass

While it’s impossible to predict what could spark a breakout above $108,000 to force those leveraged shorts to unwind, there is growing optimism tied to rising concerns over United States fiscal debt. Uncertainty remains about how the government plans to achieve economic growth while reducing spending, especially in light of ongoing disagreement between Democratic and Republican lawmakers.

More importantly, yields on the 20-year US Treasury remain close to 5%, up from 4.82% two weeks earlier. Weak demand for long-term government debt may compel the US Federal Reserve to step in as the buyer of last resort to maintain market stability, reversing a 26-month trend. This approach puts downward pressure on the US dollar and drives investors to seek alternative hedging strategies, including Bitcoin.

Gold dominates, but Bitcoin absorbs flow amid reserve reallocations

Gold remains the dominant alternative asset, but its 24% year-to-date gains in 2025 and $22 trillion market capitalization make it less attractive to many investors. For context, the entire S&P 500 index is valued at $53 trillion, while US bank deposits and Treasury bills (M1) amount to $18.6 trillion. In contrast, Bitcoin currently represents a $2.1 trillion asset class, roughly equivalent in size to silver.

Meanwhile, some regions, notably the US, have begun laying the groundwork to shift portions of their gold reserves into Bitcoin—an action that could easily propel BTC to a new all-time high. A modest 5% reallocation from gold into Bitcoin by those nations would translate into a $105 billion inflow, equivalent to 1 million BTC at a price of $105,000. 

Related: Bitcoin ready to ‘vaporize’ shorts once price discovery above $110K begins

For perspective, Strategy, the US-listed firm led by Michael Saylor, currently holds 576,230 BTC. There is little doubt that institutional buying remains the primary catalyst for Bitcoin to break above the $108,000 level. Such a move would trigger the liquidation of heavily leveraged bearish positions, likely accelerating the push to a new all-time high. However, persistent macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on overall investor sentiment.

As Bitcoin flirts with the $107,000 mark, those holding short positions face heightened risk of forced liquidations—an outcome that could further fuel upward momentum in price.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

After weeks of speculation among crypto enthusiasts and news outlets, Tron founder Justin Sun has claimed he owns the wallet that purchased the largest amount of Donald Trump’s memecoin, allowing him to qualify for a dinner and reception with the US president.

In a May 19 X post, Sun said he had received an invitation to attend Trump’s dinner at his golf club outside Washington, DC, as part of a reward for the top 220 memecoin holders. The Tron founder claimed he controlled the top wallet on the TRUMP token leaderboard under the username “Sun,” which held roughly $19 million worth of the memecoin at a price of $13.20.

According to Sun, he plans to network at the May 22 memecoin dinner, “talk crypto,” and “discuss the future” of the industry. It’s unclear why the Tron founder chose to announce his planned presence at the event now, when the leaderboard was finalized on May 12.

Cointelegraph reached out to a spokesperson for Sun for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Source: Justin Sun

Though not a surprise to many who speculated that Sun was the individual behind the memecoin purchases, his attendance at the dinner only deepens his ties to the Trump administration and the president’s family. In addition to the dinner for the 220 tokenholders, Trump said he would hold a reception and “VIP tour” for the top 25 wallets on the leaderboard.

Related: What to expect at Trump’s memecoin dinner

Sun spent $75 million on tokens through World Liberty Financial, the crypto platform backed by Trump’s three sons, including a $30 million investment a few weeks after the 2024 election. The Tron founder is also an adviser to the company.

Before Trump won the November election, Sun had been facing a lawsuit from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed in 2023 over the alleged “orchestration of the unregistered offer and sale, manipulative trading, and unlawful touting of crypto asset securities.” In February, roughly a month after Trump took office and appointed Commissioner Mark Uyeda as acting chair of the SEC, the regulator and Sun jointly filed a motion for a federal judge to stay the case, which was granted.

Memecoin’s potential conflicts of interest are affecting Congress

Sun’s and others’ involvement in Trump’s crypto ventures has prompted calls for investigations and oversight among many Democratic lawmakers, who argued that some individuals could use digital assets to essentially purchase influence with the president. The concerns initially slowed progress on a bill to regulate stablecoins in the Senate, the GENIUS Act, complicated by World Liberty Financial’s own stablecoin, USD1. The chamber voted to move forward on the bill on May 19, a few hours before Sun’s announcement.

“How convenient: the day after the Senate advances the GENIUS Act, Justin Sun — a major investor in the Trump family crypto venture — announces he’s getting a private dinner as the president’s top crypto buyer,” said Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, according to Bloomberg. “It’s critical that everyone understands the GENIUS Act doesn’t stop this type of corruption — it greenlights it.”

At a May 20 oversight hearing, Maryland Representative Glenn Ivey questioned SEC Chair Paul Atkins on Sun’s case being stayed, as well as his investments in World Liberty Financial and Trump’s memecoin. Though the case was stayed before Atkins was sworn in as chair, Ivey expressed concern about the timeline between Sun’s investments and the SEC not pursuing its own enforcement action.

The memecoin dinner applicants are likely still subject to background checks before meeting Trump in person. As of May 20, those planning to attend included Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu, Hyperithm co-CEO Oh Sangrok, Synthetix founder Kain Warwick, a consultant named Vincent Deriu, crypto user Morten Christensen, a World Liberty Financial adviser going by the pseudonym “Ogle,” and a representative from the startup MemeCore.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions