Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s breaks below key gold support

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

For instance, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

That is in contrast to the ongoing decoupling narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC vs gold breakdowns are historically bearish

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern also repeated in earlier cycles, namely the 2019-2020 and 2018-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) value relative to Gold (XAU) may be poised for a steep 35% drop, as it mirrors historical bear market signals and reacts to massive turbulence that has wiped out $13 trillion from the US stock market.

Bitcoin’s break below key gold support signals further selloffs

As of April 22, the BTC/XAU ratio had closed below its 50-period exponential moving average (50-period EMA; the red wave) on the two-week chart for the first time since April 2022.

BTC/XAU two-week performance chart. Source: TradingView

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended downtrend toward the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

In both 2021 and 2022, for instance, BTC/XAU experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50-EMA, only to eventually break below it and decline toward the 200-EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is now repeating in 2025 after two recent tests of the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is breaking lower, suggesting that a move toward the 200-EMA may be underway, representing an approximately 35% drop.

Mike McGlone, the senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar downside outlook for the Bitcoin-to-Gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the US stock market.

Bitcoin/Gold vs. US stock market cap-to-GDP ratio. Source: Mike McGlone

“What’s $13 trillion? The 2025 peak-to-trough drop in US stock market capitalization — almost 50% of GDP,” he wrote, adding:

“The Bitcoin/gold cross has same-chart symptoms with market cap-to-GDP.

“Bounces should be expected in bear markets,” he added, implying that while short-term relief rallies are possible, the prevailing trend for both Bitcoin and equities may remain downward for now.

Related: Bitcoin longs cut $106M — Are Bitfinex BTC whales turning bearish above $86K?

That is in contrast to the ongoing ‘decoupling’ narrative between Bitcoin and the US stocks.

BTC/XAU breakdowns are historically bearish for BTC/USD

Weakness in the BTC/XAU pair is not just a relative signal; it often foreshadows absolute declines in Bitcoin’s price.

This trend was clearly visible during the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU broke below its 50-EMA in late 2021, Bitcoin’s price in USD followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that saw prices fall from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU vs. BTC/USD two-week price performance chart. Source: TradingView

The pattern repeated in earlier cycles as well, namely the 2019-2020 and 2019-2019 periods. Each time, Bitcoin either bottomed out near its 200-week EMA or declined further below it to establish a cycle low, as shown below.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

If the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin faces an elevated risk of declining toward its 200-week EMA by year’s end, which currently sits near $50,950.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid, CEO of O.xyz

The DeepSeek saga made it abundantly clear that cheaper AI models can offer breakthrough advantages. DeepSeek challenges traditional investments with low-cost, high-performance technology. Yet its rise brings serious risks. 

The most concerning aspects of such models are data privacy and security issues. The fact that such advanced models can be developed at a fraction of the standard expense does boost innovation and investment prospects, but at what cost?

Cost-cutting AI models can create dangerous vulnerabilities, even if they democratize AI development. A recent Cisco study found that DeepSeek’s R1 model had a 100% attack success rate. In simple terms, the model failed to block a single harmful prompt. Why does security take a backseat during such innovation?

DeepSeek sparks AI frenzy in China 

DeepSeek developers claim that its R1 chatbot costs a fraction of what rivals like OpenAI spend. Industry voices labeled this as the biggest AI chatbot story since November 2022. Microsoft and Amazon Web Services moved quickly to support DeepSeek.

This progress comes with risks. DeepSeek’s AI model stores user data on servers in China. Chinese law forces companies to share data with state agencies. This policy may allow the Chinese government to harvest US consumer data.

OpenAI raised concerns over DeepSeek in a letter to the US government. The 15-page letter highlighted that DeepSeek’s advancements, particularly with its R1 model, are narrowing the US lead in AI. 

From a financial viewpoint, DeepSeek’s announcement triggered a global panic. Tech stocks dropped sharply. Nvidia, a leader in chip manufacturing, lost nearly 17% in a single day. Investors reevaluated the cost and competitiveness of the AI industry. The loss in market value reached hundreds of billions of dollars. 

As risk sentiment spread, the shockwaves moved quickly into other sectors like crypto. The fast and hasty reaction itself is a critical concern. If AI developers want to cash in on this low-cost development trend, we might see more models like DeepSeek emerge that sacrifice user privacy for the sake of rapid deployment. 

The spillover effects on crypto

The DeepSeek saga revealed a more concerning trend for the crypto industry. Cryptocurrencies have grown closely linked with tech stocks. When DeepSeek hit the headlines, the crypto market was not spared. Bitcoin (BTC), the most prominent digital asset, fell below $100,000. 

Analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s six‐month rolling correlation with the Nasdaq Composite rose to about 0.5. This indicates that risk assets like Bitcoin follow suit when tech stocks falter. So, future developments that damage the mainstream tech market can also take a toll on the crypto market. 

Critics, including Jean Rausis of Smardex, maintain that DeepSeek’s technology “has nothing to do with Bitcoin” on a fundamental level. The prevailing market fear, however, meant that any shock in the tech sector transmitted quickly to the crypto market. Many Bitcoin miners had moved into AI data center operations and saw shares decline by 13%–18%. This drop added to the overall uncertainty in the market.

Another concern is the increasing avenue of scams. Several DeepSeek-themed or even fake AI-themed tokens emerged and captured investors’ attention. New investors would know very little about trading on decentralized exchanges and identifying pump-and-dump or rug-pull schemes. 

Security risks that can’t be ignored 

Security researchers pointed out that the DeepSeek R1 iOS app uses outdated encryption. Such flaws expose users to the risk of cyberattacks and data breaches. 

This cost-cutting can leave the system vulnerable to manipulation and misuse. The possibility that a low-cost AI model might serve foreign state interests casts a long shadow over its adoption.

Recent: OpenAI expects to 3X revenue in 2025 but Chinese AI firms are heating up

Security risks of this nature require urgent attention from companies and regulators alike. US officials worry about the storage of sensitive consumer data on Chinese servers. Regulators may impose stricter data protection standards to safeguard market confidence. Industry experts also debate the long-term influence of DeepSeek. Some argue that its cost-efficiency could push the entire AI sector forward. 

They see lower training costs as an opportunity to drive innovation and increase competition. This could lead to broader adoption of AI tools and lower costs. Yet the security shortcomings remain unresolved. The risk that cheaper models expose users to data breaches and cyberattacks overshadows potential benefits.

What’s ahead? 

As regulators and industry leaders step in to examine these issues, the future of AI depends on how well we manage these security risks. We must demand higher standards for data protection, even as we push for innovation. 

DeepSeek’s case reminds us that breakthroughs in efficiency must come with strong safeguards. The choices made now will shape the future of AI and consumer data protection. The debate over cheaper, faster but riskier technology is far from over and will continue to influence the tech and crypto space for years to come.

Opinion by: Ahmad Shadid, CEO of O.xyz.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.