BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the United States is unlikely to add more Bitcoin to its reserves beyond what it has already seized due to the country’s high debt levels and the stereotype behind “Bitcoin bros.”

“I’m not really into the whole Strategic Reserve situation,” Hayes said in a May 1 interview.

Hayes doubts any government announcing print money plans for Bitcoin 

“The United States is a deficit country; the only way they can do a Strategic Reserve is not sell the Bitcoin they took from people, fine, that’s 200,000 Bitcoin,” he said.

Arthur Hayes spoke to Kyle Chasse on his crypto interview series. Source: Kyle Chasse

However, Hayes said it’s hard to imagine any “properly elected” politician openly announcing that the government plans to print money to buy Bitcoin (BTC).

“Especially when the popular narrative is a bunch of Bitcoin bros going to the club.”

“Is that really what you want people to think about your policy?” he asked.

On March 6, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to create a Bitcoin strategic reserve and digital asset stockpile in the US. The US holds 198,012 Bitcoin worth over $18 billion, as per recent data. The reserve is primarily formed of Bitcoin seized in criminal and civil cases, including significant amounts from the Silk Road and Bitfinex hack cases.

However, many crypto industry leaders believe that if the US government starts buying Bitcoin, it could set off an aggressive domino effect.

Sergej Kunz, co-founder of exchange aggregator 1inch, said during Cointelegraph’s LONGITUDE event in Dubai that if the US starts buying Bitcoin for a strategic reserve, even smaller countries may soon struggle to acquire the cryptocurrency.

He added. “I’m pretty sure we’ll soon see countries battling over who owns more Bitcoin. The US will start.”

Hayes sees Bitcoin to altcoin rotation playbook staying the same

Hayes remains confident that the Bitcoin cycle leading into altcoin season will follow the same pattern as it did in 2021, despite differing views from other analysts.

“I personally think Bitcoin dominance is going back to where it was before the 2021 altcoin season, which is about 70%,” Hayes said.

Hayes isn’t convinced the pattern will change. “Then people just start rotating,” he said. “It’s back at all-time highs; bull markets are back, and altcoins should outperform. Should is a keyword there,” Hayes said. “Depends on what you buy,” he added.

Related: Bitcoin price about to ‘blast’ higher as Fed rate cut odds jump to 60%

Bitcoin dominance — the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to the entire crypto market — is 64.78% at the time of publication, according to TradingView data. 

Bitcoin dominance was 57.59% on Jan. 1. Source: TradingView

This represents an 11.68% increase since Jan. 1, when Bitcoin dominance was hovering just below 60%, a level where some analysts said would be its peak before altcoin season began. Several analysts doubted that Bitcoin dominance would ever return to 70%.

One of those skeptics was Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen, who explained in August that he doesn’t “think it is going back up to 70%,” and his target for Bitcoin dominance has been 60%.

Meanwhile, in December CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said “altseason is no longer defined by asset rotation from Bitcoin.”

He said the traditional signal marking the beginning of an altcoin season when capital rotates from Bitcoin to altcoins is outdated. Instead, altcoin trading volume has become more prevalent against stablecoin and fiat currency pairs. 

Magazine: Crypto wanted to overthrow banks, and now it’s becoming them in stablecoin fight

Key takeaways:

BTC hit $97,900 due to soaring institutional investor demand, but futures pricing shows traders aren’t confident in a sustained rally.

Macroeconomic risks and global trade tensions cap bullish sentiment despite $3.6 billion in spot BTC ETF inflows.

BTC options lean bullish, suggesting big players expect upside, but their caution keeps leverage use low.

Bitcoin (BTC) broke out of a tight trading range between $93,000 and $95,600 on May 1, following six days of limited movement. Despite reaching its highest price in ten weeks at $97,930, sentiment remains neutral according to BTC derivatives indicators. This price action has occurred alongside significant net inflows into US spot exchange-traded Bitcoin funds (ETFs).

Some of the disappointment among traders can be attributed to the ongoing global tariff dispute, which is beginning to affect macroeconomic data. Bitcoin traders are concerned that, despite growing interest from institutional investors, fears of an economic recession could limit price performance. This concern reduces the likelihood of BTC reaching $110,000 or higher in 2025.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized premium for Bitcoin’s two-month futures has remained between 6% and 7% over the past week, staying within the neutral range of 5% to 10%. Compared to January, when Bitcoin was trading near $95,000 and the futures premium was above 10%, traders’ sentiment has weakened. This data suggests there is less optimism, or at least less conviction, in further price gains toward $100,000 and above.

Gold’s performance outshone Bitcoin’s modest gains

Some market participants point to gold’s 20% rally, from $2,680 to $3,220, as a source of concern. Although Bitcoin recently surpassed silver’s $1.8 trillion market capitalization to become the seventh largest global tradable asset, gold’s surge to a massive $21.7 trillion valuation has overshadowed this achievement. Investors worry that Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the stock market has diminished the appeal of its “digital gold” narrative.

Bitcoin spot US-listed ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: CoinGlass

There is also a possibility that the $3.6 billion in net inflows to US spot ETFs over the past two weeks are being driven by delta-neutral strategies. In this scenario, the flows reflect Bitcoin holders moving to listed products or using derivatives for hedging. If so, the direct impact on price would be limited, which is consistent with Bitcoin’s modest 5% gain during this period.

To determine whether professional traders are comfortable with Bitcoin around $97,500, it is helpful to examine the BTC options market.

Bitcoin 1-month options 25% delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The BTC options 25% delta skew metric is currently near its lowest level since Feb. 15, indicating that whales and market makers are assigning higher odds to further upside from here. This marks a sharp reversal from three weeks ago, when put (sell) options traded at a premium.

Related: Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off

Bitcoin derivatives’ resilience favors further BTC price gains

Overall, Bitcoin derivatives indicate moderate optimism. Traders generally expect further price gains, but bulls are refraining from using leverage. Some might argue that this creates the ideal conditions for a surprise rally, especially since the retest of $74,500 on April 9 did not significantly affect BTC derivatives.

The most important factor influencing Bitcoin’s performance remains the commercial relationship between the US and China. As long as the trade war continues, Bitcoin is likely to continue tracking the S&P 500 movements. While this environment may prevent Bitcoin from reaching a new all-time high in the near term, BTC derivatives are currently leaning slightly in favor of the bulls.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Senator Cynthia Lummis and at least one other Republican in Congress are reportedly critical of US President Donald Trump for offering the top holders of his memecoin a dinner and White House tour.

According to a May 2 CNBC report, Lummis said the idea that the US president was offering exclusive access to himself and the White House for people willing to pay for it “gives [her] pause.” She wasn’t the only member of the Republican Party to be critical of Trump’s memecoin perks, announced on April 23, roughly three months after the then-president-elect launched the TRUMP token.  

“I don’t think it would be appropriate for me to charge people to come into the Capitol and take a tour,” said Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, according to NBC News.

Despite Lummis’ reported “pause” over the president’s actions, on May 2, she posted a video to X of herself speaking on the Senate floor, saying she was “particularly pleased” by Trump’s support of legislation to establish a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve in the United States. The Boosting Innovation, Technology, and Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide, or BITCOIN, Act would seemingly codify Trump’s executive order to create a national crypto reserve.

Related: House Democrats want ethics probe on Trump over crypto projects

The launch of the TRUMP coin on Jan. 17 was met with outrage from many lawmakers and figures in the crypto industry, who pointed to potential conflicts of interest and implications of allowing foreign actors to channel funds directly to Trump. The criticism continued after Trump announced that a group of the top memecoin holders would have the opportunity to apply for a White House tour and dinner.

 “Trump once claimed he is so rich he cannot be bought,” said Craig Holman, a government ethics expert with the consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen. “But his obsession with money means he apparently can be bought for a meme.”

Calls for impeachment over ties to crypto

Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, called for Trump’s impeachment during an April 25 town hall, claiming the memecoin dinner represented “selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him.” During his first term, Trump was impeached twice in the House of Representatives but acquitted after the Senate votes fell short of the two-thirds majority required for conviction.

At the time of publication, it was unclear who, if any, of the memecoin holders would attend the May 22 dinner with Trump. Usernames from the TRUMP leaderboard have led to speculation that staunch supporters like Tron founder Justin Sun and Tesla CEO Elon Musk could be among the attendees. As of May 2, neither the individuals nor the companies have made any formal announcements.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions