Key points:

Bitcoin seeks consolidation after rapid gains as stocks and the US dollar surge on US-China trade deal news.

Nearby order book liquidity forms potential targets for traders, which now include $102,000.

A classic moving average retest suggests that a new all-time high should result.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $104,000 at the May 12 Wall Street open as markets shifted on US-China trade deal news.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin surfs US-China trade deal reactions

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating after hitting its highest levels since late January.

The US and China agreed to slash reciprocal trade tariffs on the day, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index to gain around 3%.

US dollar strength also benefited as a result, with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting one-month highs.

US dollar index (DXY) 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“The last time US tariffs on China were this high, the S&P 500 was ~200 points lower, 4 Fed rate cuts were expected in 2025, and Wall Street was calling for a recession,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of ongoing analysis on X. 

“Sentiment is everything.”US tariffs on China. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

Bitcoin thus adopted the middle ground between major assets on the day as gold dropped precipitously to $3,208 per ounce, nearing month-to-date lows.

“BTC Swept most nearby liquidity above after chopping around the $103K-$105K area for a few days,” popular trader Daan Crypto Trades told X followers alongside a chart of exchange order book liquidity from monitoring resource CoinGlass. 

“Below keep an eye on the ~$102K region as that’s a pretty dense area in terms of liquidation clusters. Could be a good level for some action. Depending on the reaction there you can reassess.”BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass data showed increasing bids around the $103,000 mark after the Wall Street open.

New BTC price record “in the making”

Continuing, fellow trader CrypNuevo was among those doubling down on a longer-term bull thesis for BTC price action.

Related: Is Bitcoin about to go parabolic? BTC price targets include $160K next

BTC/USD, he noted, had conducted a successful retest of the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Currently at $80,300, the 50-week EMA has functioned as a springboard for new all-time highs in recent years.

“We got the 1W50EMA retest and, consequently, the next leg up,” CrypNuevo explained in an X thread on May 11. 

“Every previous time that we saw this structure, we made a new high so the trend signals a new ATH in the making.”BTC/USDT 1-week chart with 50 EMA. Source: CrypNuevo/X

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on a classic bull market breakout signal on weekly timeframes in the form of a cross on the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Tether’s USDt (USDT) surpassed a $150 billion market capitalization for the first time on May 12, marking a new milestone amid growing stablecoin adoption.

USDt’s circulating supply has expanded by over 36% in the past year, with growth accelerating in November following the election of US President Donald Trump.

USDt’s market cap growth over the past year. Source: CoinMarketCap

At its current supply, Tether accounts for 61% of the global stablecoin market, according to CoinMarketCap data. It’s followed by Circle’s USDC (USDC), which accounts for nearly 25% of the stablecoin market. 

As the world’s largest stablecoin, Tether is widely viewed as a barometer for cryptocurrency demand, given its central role in providing liquidity and funding for crypto trading.

Tether is part of a broader trend toward digital fiat currencies, with recent data from Dune and Artemis showing that the number of active stablecoin wallets has surged more than 50% over the past year, from 19.6 million to 30 million.

Related: $1T stablecoin supply could drive next crypto rally — CoinFund’s Pakman

Tether eyes US reboot

Despite its large presence globally, Tether’s usage is restricted in the United States, a country now at the forefront of pro-crypto legislation.

Against this backdrop, Tether is planning to enter the US with a new dollar-backed stablecoin later this year.

“A domestic stablecoin would be different from the international stablecoin,” Tether’s CEO, Paolo Ardoino, reportedly said on the sidelines of the Token2049 conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 

According to a CNBC report, Tether is increasing lobbying efforts in Washington as US lawmakers consider several stablecoin-related bills, including the STABLE Act, introduced by House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill and Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil.

Former CFTC Chair Timothy Massad delivers remarks at a Feb. 11 House committee meeting. Source: GOP Financial Services

However, the STABLE Act has drawn criticism. As reported by Cointelegraph, former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Timothy Massad argued the bill would do little to rein in Tether.

Speaking during a Feb. 11 hearing of the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence, Massad said the proposal poses “far too much risk of weak state standards” and suffers from “an inadequate review process,” noting the lack of “ongoing federal supervision of state issuers.”

Related: US crypto bills compared: STABLE Act vs GENIUS Act

Key takeaways:

Possible de-risking ahead of the May 13 CPI print could be playing a role in today’s BTC price correction.

Bitcoin market structure and qualitative fundamentals remain bullish, suggesting today’s correction could be short-lived.

Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly stumbled on May 12, falling to $102,388 after hitting an intraday high at $105,819 during the US trading session. At first glance, the abrupt correction seemed unexpected given the positive news of the day. Since Sunday evening (May 11), mainstream media headlines have reported on the positive headway made in the US-China trade talks occurring in Switzerland, and throughout the evening, President Trump ran his victory lab via Truth Social posts heralding the positives of the deal. 

BREAKING: U.S. Announces China Trade Deal in Geneva pic.twitter.com/JjgvYAvAGe

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 11, 2025

As news of the tentative deal broke, US equity futures markets soared, and these gains materialized into a 1,000-point rally in the Dow at the opening bell. Looking beyond the temporary resolution of the US-China trade war, Bitcoin has racked up back-to-back wins over the past two weeks. On May 12, Strategy CEO Michael Saylor announced that the company had acquired 13,390 Bitcoin, bringing its total balance to 568,840 BTC. 

On the same day, shares of healthcare company KindlyMD surged up to 600% after announcing the merger with Nakamoto Holdings, a Bitcoin investment company founded by David Bailey, who is Trump’s current crypto adviser. The month of April followed a similar trajectory to today, where frequent Bitcoin treasury creation announcements were made by an assortment of US-based and international companies. 

Related: US real estate asset manager launches $100M tokenized fund with institutional backing

Profit taking and de-risking drive the current Bitcoin price correction

While Bitcoin’s mass adoption appears to be accelerating, data from Glassnode suggests that BTC price could be in for a brief period of consolidation after gaining 9% in the last week. The onchain analytics firm posted the following chart and warned that: 

“BTC Supply Mapping shows sustained strength in new demand. First-Time Buyers RSI has held at 100 all week. But Momentum Buyers remain weak (RSI ~11), and Profit Takers are rising. If fresh inflows slow, lack of follow-through could lead to consolidation.” 

At major crypto exchanges, there was an uptick in selling in perpetual futures markets, and selling was also seen in spot markets as BTC price rallied into a sell wall near $106,000.

From a trader’s point of view, a portion of the selling could be possible derisking ahead of the May 13 Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report, along with the view that the Trump trade deal with China is now priced in after BTC failed to rally and hold above $104,000 on such momentous news. 

BTC/USD spot and futures CVD. Source: TRDR.io 

Leading into the trade war news, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rallied and stock indexes soared. Seeing Bitcoin failing to break and hold $104,000 to $105,000 prior to stock futures opening and then BTC being unable to follow equities opening bell gains in the NY session suggests some traders elected to close profitable longs ahead of tomorrow’s CPI or before the current bid appetite shifts to lower price levels. 

BTC/USDT futures 1-hour chart. Source: Velo

This view can be interpreted by the chart above, showing open interest rising hour-over-hour, along with an abrupt spike in the funding rate as short positions opened and longs were liquidated. 

Spot purchasing played a significant role in last week’s Bitcoin price rally, and the May 12 announcement from Strategy and spot BTC ETF inflows of the past 7 days raises more immediate concerns of whether the type of buying appetite seen since late April will spill over into another week. 

Spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows (weekly). Source: SoSoValue

Considering the accelerating pace of Bitcoin adoption within traditional finance and the rapidly improving crypto regulatory environment, the current price action appears to be a short-term technical correction. Perhaps, dependent upon tomorrow’s CPI print, spot and margin longs will return in force once the market digests the details of the report.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.