Bitcoin inflows into crypto exchange Binance have surged over the past two weeks amid uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, says an analyst.

However, another analyst argued that while it could signal an impending sell-off, it might also indicate a bullish trend.

Investors are “actively moving funds to Binance”

CryptoQuant contributor Maarten Regterschot said in an April 9 post that Binance’s Bitcoin (BTC) reserve increased by 22,106 BTC, worth $1.82 billion, over the last 12 days to a total of 590,874 BTC.

“This shows a strong acceleration in BTC inflows to Binance. It’s likely that investors are actively moving funds to Binance due to the macro uncertainty and before the upcoming CPI announcement,” Regterschot said. 

CoinMarketCap shows Bitcoin is trading at $82,474 at the time of publication, up 8.8% in the past day after receiving a boost from Trump’s 90-day tariff pause on all countries but China.

Binance’s Bitcoin Reserve has 590,874 Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to deliver the CPI results for March on April 10.

During uncertain times, traders often move their crypto onto exchanges to sell, leading to more volatility as confidence starts to decline.

However, Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph that this isn’t always a bearish signal. “Large inflows could be a sign of selling, but it is a very fluid market. It is plausible that Binance is shifting assets into its hot wallets to meet heavy demand.”

“The next few days are critical in understanding the appetite of the market for crypto after Trump’s climbdown on tariffs,” he said.

Earlier on April 9, Trump issued a 90-day pause on his administration’s “reciprocal tariffs,” lowering the tariff rate to 10% on all countries besides China, which he ramped up to 125%, citing the country’s counter-tariffs against the US.

“Tensions between the US and China remain a structural overhang,” Hundal said. 

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Meanwhile, crypto analyst Matthew Hyland said that the March CPI results “will show inflation is crashing down probably close to 2.5%.”

“Another interesting day coming,” he added. 

Crypto analyst Dyme said, “Lower than expected CPI print will send us higher.”

However, FactSet’s consensus estimates show economists expect consumer prices to have risen by 0.1% month-over-month in March. 

On March 12, the CPI came in lower than expected at 3.1%, beating expectations of 3.2%, with a corresponding 0.1% drop in headline inflation figures.

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Braden John Karony, the CEO of crypto firm SafeMoon, has cited the US Department of Justice’s directive to no longer pursue some crypto charges in an effort to get the case against him and his firm dismissed. 

In an April 9 letter to New York federal court judge Eric Komitee, Karony’s attorney, Nicholas Smith, said the court should consider an April 7 memo from US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche that disbanded the DOJ’s crypto unit.

“The Department of Justice is not a digital assets regulator,” Blanche said in the memo, which added the DOJ “will no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets.”

Blanche also directed prosecutors not to charge violations of securities and commodities laws when the case would require the DOJ to determine if a digital asset is a security or commodity when charges such as wire fraud are available.

An excerpt of the letter Karony sent to Judge Komitee. Source: PACER

In the footnote of the letter, Karony’s counsel wrote an exemption to the DOJ’s new directive would be if the parties have an interest in defending that a crypto asset is a security, but added that “Karony does not have such an interest.”

The Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission filed simultaneous charges of securities violations, wire fraud, and money laundering against Karony and other SafeMoon executives in November 2023.

The government alleged Karony, SafeMoon creator Kyle Nagy and chief technology officer Thomas Smith withdrew assets worth $200 million from the project and misappropriated investor funds. 

Another attempt to nix the case

The letter is Karony’s latest attempt to get the case thrown out. In February, he asked that his trial, scheduled to begin on March 31, be delayed as he argued President Donald Trump’s proposed crypto policies could potentially affect the case.

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Later in February, Smith changed his plea to guilty and said he took part in the alleged $200 million crypto fraud scheme. Nagy is at large and is believed to be in Russia.

SafeMoon filed for bankruptcy in December 2023, a month after it was hit with twin cases from the SEC and DOJ. It was also hacked in March 2023, with the hacker agreeing to return 80% of the funds.

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Ukraine’s financial regulator has proposed taxing certain crypto transactions as personal income at a rate of up to 23% but excluding crypto-to-crypto transactions and stablecoins.  

Crypto transactions would be taxed at 18% with a 5% military levy on top as part of the proposed framework, released on April 8 by Ukraine’s National Securities and Stock Market Commission. 

NSSMC Chairman Ruslan Magomedov said in an April 8 statement that “the issue of crypto taxes is not a hypothesis, but a reality that is fast approaching.” 

He added that the agency created the framework to help lawmakers make an “informed resolution” by considering each suggestion’s advantages and disadvantages because “these aspects can have a critical impact on the market and tax liability.”

Under the NSSMC’s proposed crypto framework, a tax will be applied when crypto is cashed out for fiat currency or exchanged for goods or services. 

Crypto-to-crypto transactions wouldn’t be taxed, bringing Ukraine in line with other European countries, including Austria and France, as well as crypto-friendly jurisdictions like Singapore, the NSSMC said. 

The regulator says it “makes sense” to exclude stablecoins backed by foreign currencies or only apply a 5% or 9% tax because Ukraine’s tax code already excludes income from transactions in “foreign exchange values.” 

A translated excerpt of the NSSMC’s report said stablecoins backed by foreign currencies could be exempt from taxation. Source: NSSMC

Mining, staking, hard forks and airdrops 

Other crypto-related activities, such as mining, staking and airdrops, are also addressed in the framework which floated a few options for taxation. 

The NSSMC said crypto mining is generally considered a business activity, but there might be a general tax-free limit for certain crypto transactions, including mining. 

Under the framework, staking could be considered as “business captive income” or only taxed if the crypto is cashed out for fiat currencies. While hard forks and airdrops could be taxed either as ordinary income or when the tokens are cashed. 

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The regulator suggests a tax-free threshold could help “relieve the burden on small investors” and is common in other jurisdictions. 

Exemptions for donations, transfers between family members, and holders who keep their crypto for a set amount of time are also flagged as possibilities. However, the NSSMC says the exemption might not apply to non-custodial crypto wallets. 

Last December, Daniil Getmantsev, head of the tax committee of Ukraine’s parliament, said a draft bill to legalize cryptocurrencies was under review and expected to be finalized early this year. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy first signed a law establishing a legal framework for the country to operate a regulated crypto market in March 2022. 

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