Bitcoin (BTC) demands a breakout as a key leading indicator reaches its highest levels since January.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows the relative strength index (RSI) hinting at more BTC price gains next.

Bitcoin RSI breakout has days to “full confirmation”

Bitcoin bull runs traditionally begin with telltale RSI signals, and on daily timeframes, conditions are ripe for a classic BTC price rebound.

As BTC/USD made lower lows over the past month, RSI began trending in the opposite direction, setting higher lows and attempting a type of bullish divergence.

More recently, the daily RSI broke above the 50 midpoint, only to successfully retest it as support from above before making new multimonth highs.

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Among those monitoring the topic is popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital.

“Bitcoin has successfully retested red as support & the Daily RSI Higher Low continues to maintain itself as well,” he commented alongside a chart in an X post this weekend.

“Growing signs of a maturing Bullish Divergence here, with price just below the key Price Downtrend (blue).”

BTC/USD 1-day chart with RSI data. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Rekt Capital also reported that RSI trends suggested a long-term BTC price floor at around $70,000.

Meanwhile, fellow analyst Kevin Svenson captured similarly promising signals on weekly RSI this week.

“Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the most reliable macro breakout indicators,” he told X followers. 

“6 Days until full confirmation.”

BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Kevin Svenson/X

As Cointelegraph reported, another key breakout currently under the microscope for Bitcoin market participants involves a downward-sloping trendline in place since January’s all-time highs.

April BTC price performance far below median

Countering the bullish anticipation is an analysis focusing on the troublesome macroeconomic conditions in which Bitcoin now finds itself.

Related: Bitcoin price metric that called 2020 bull run says $69K new bottom

The ongoing US trade war and risk-asset rout make for an unlikely influx of capital to BTC, which has closely followed stocks while gold sets repeated all-time highs.

In his latest forecast for April, network economist Timothy Peterson saw little reason to celebrate.

Uploading a chart of the median yearly price path for BTC/USD, he concluded that this year was a firm underperformer.

“Half the days are above the blue line and half are below it. This April is obviously a ‘below’ month,” part of accompanying commentary read.

“That is almost certainly not going to change, given the level of interest rates and other risk factors at work in the market and economy.”

BTC price seasonality. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

Other perspectives likewise see a lackluster April before bullish undercurrents catch up with Bitcoin, these in the form of record global M2 money supply and a weakening US dollar index (DXY).

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets, according to an April 14 report from crypto market maker Wintermute.

The report noted that Bitcoin (BTC) has held up relatively well during the ongoing market downturn, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropped to their lowest levels in a year and bond yields surged to highs that had not been seen since 2007.

“Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period,“ Wintermute wrote.

According to Wintermute, “This marks a notable shift from its historical behavior in crisis situations.” In the past, Bitcoin’s losses were considerably greater than those of traditional finance indexes. The shift highlights Bitcoin’s “apparent growing resilience amid macroeconomic turbulence.“

Founder of Obchakevich Research, Alex Obchakevich, told Cointelegraph that he expects this to be a temporary trend:

“As the trade war intensifies, Bitcoin may return to the list of risky assets. Because investors will most likely look for salvation in gold.“

Obchakevich said that factors that caused the stability of Bitcoin were growing institutional interest through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the promotion of Bitcoin as digital gold due to its decentralization and independence.

Related: Bitcoin traders target $90K as apparent tariff exemptions ease US Treasury yields

A change in Bitcoin market dynamics

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price increased by 7% to $83,700 — later reaching nearly $86,000 at the time of publication. This growth occurred as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-over-year, with a month-over-month decline of 0.1% — the first monthly decrease since May 2020. This signals that inflation is cooling off.

Year-over-year CPI percentage change. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Furthermore, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in March. The same metric stood at 3.2% in February, also showing signs of disinflationary pressures. Still, according to Wintermute, the trend may soon reverse:

“Despite this progress toward the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the recent escalation in global trade tensions introduced new potential inflationary risks, which are not yet reflected in March’s data.”

Monthly PPI percentage change. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Related: Trade wars could spur governments to embrace Web3 — Truebit

More market turmoil expected

Bitwise analyst Jeff Park recently argued that US President Donald Trump’s trade policies will create worldwide macroeconomic turmoil and short-term financial crises that will ultimately lead to greater adoption of Bitcoin. He said that we should expect an inflation increase:

“The tariff costs, most likely through higher inflation, will be shared by both the US and trading partners, but the relative impact will be much heavier on foreigners. These countries will then have to find a way to fend off their weak growth issues.”

Wintermute explained that the ongoing trade war heightens the risk of increased inflation and economic slowdown. Prediction market Kalshi traders recently placed the odds of a recession hitting the US this year at 61%, and JPMorgan sees a 60% likelihood.

Magazine: Bitcoin eyes $100K by June, Shaq to settle NFT lawsuit, and more: Hodler’s Digest, April 6 – 12

Only 20 of the 181 Bitcoin service providers registered with El Salvador’s central bank are operational, with the rest failing to meet the country’s requirements under its Bitcoin Law. 

Local media outlet El Mundo cited data from the Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador, showing that 11% of the service providers are operational. According to the central bank’s database, the rest of the providers are classified as non-operational. 

The data showed that at least 22 non-operational providers have failed to meet most of the country’s Bitcoin Law requirements, which mandate that providers implement stringent supervision of their financial systems. 

Most of El Salvador’s Bitcoin service providers are non-operational

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law requires providers to maintain an Anti-Money Laundering (AML) program, keep records that accurately reflect the company’s assets, liabilities and equity and have a tailored cybersecurity program depending on the nature of its services. 

The data showed that 89% of the registered providers have failed to meet some of these obligations to be classified as operational. 

Still, a few firms have satisfied the legal criteria, including the state-backed Chivo Wallet and companies including Crypto Trading & Investment and Fintech Américas.

Related: Cathie Wood to kick off El Salvador’s AI public education program

El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment

In 2021, El Salvador became the first country to accept Bitcoin as legal tender along with the US dollar. This move made Bitcoin integral to El Salvador President Nayib Bukele’s economic strategy. 

However, the Central American country recently signed a deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on a $1.4 billion loan in exchange for rolling back some of its Bitcoin-related efforts. Under the agreement, taxes will be paid in US dollars and public institutions will limit their use of Bitcoin.

On March 3, the IMF asked the country to stop its public sector Bitcoin buys. Still, Bukele said the government will continue to purchase Bitcoin, seemingly contradicting its IMF deal.

The IMF deal prompted speculation about whether the country would rescind Bitcoin’s status as legal tender. John Dennehy, an El Salvador-based Bitcoin activist and educator, said in an X Space with Cointelegraph that a rollback law changing Bitcoin’s legal status is set to take effect on April 30.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research