The Texas House of Representatives has passed the third reading of SB 21, a bill that seeks to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the state. The bill passed in a 101-42 vote and will now go to Texas Governor Greg Abbott to either sign into law or veto.

SB 21, authored by state Senator Charles Schwertner, establishes a Bitcoin (BTC) reserve that is managed by the state’s comptroller. The legislation allows the comptroller to invest in any cryptocurrency with a market cap above $500 billion over the previous 12-month period. Currently, the only cryptocurrency fitting the requirement is Bitcoin.

Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione presenting SB 21. Source: Bitcoin Laws

Before the vote, state Representative Giovanni Capriglione said to the chamber that the bill was a “pivotal moment in securing Texas’s leadership in the digital age with the passage of our strategic Bitcoin reserve. Now, we embrace a modern asset with traditional properties for future promise.”

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Democratic leaning organizations and members of Congress have announced plans to protest what they describe as the sale of access to the office of the US president, in reference to Donald Trump’s memecoin dinner on May 22. The event’s attendees are said to have collectively spent over $100 million for the chance to meet with the US president.

Since Trump’s memecoin project, Official Trump (TRUMP), announced that its top 220 tokenholders would have an opportunity to apply for an exclusive dinner with the president, many leaders in the crypto industry and US lawmakers have criticized the event, saying Trump was opening his office to potential bribery and corruption.

The memecoin dinner prompted some Democratic lawmakers to withdraw support for crypto-related legislation in Congress, including the market structure and stablecoin bills.

“Trump collecting gifts from foreign governments is unconstitutional,” a spokesperson for the consumer advocacy organization Public Citizen, which is planning to protest near the memecoin dinner on May 22, told Cointelegraph. “Collecting foreign government investments through his memecoin is not much better. American foreign policy should not be for sale.”

Source: Public Citizen

Crypto industry figures such as Tron founder Justin Sun, Kronos Research chief investment officer Vincent Liu, Hyperithm co-CEO Oh Sangrok, and Synthetix founder Kain Warwick are among the tokenholders expected to attend the dinner at the Trump National Golf Club outside Washington, DC. The memecoin project said all applicants had to pass a background check and could not be from a “[Know Your Customer] watchlist country.”

Related: Democrats seek suspicious activity reports linked to Trump crypto ventures

Public Citizen, in partnership with progressive political organization Our Revolution, will hold a rally near the golf club, which Oregon Senator Jeff Merkley is expected to attend. In addition, the Arlington and Loudoun Democrats will be hosting a separate event to urge US officials to “hold [Trump] accountable,” and Democratic leadership in Congress has scheduled two press events on May 22 ahead of the dinner.

“Americans cannot and will not accept President Trump’s view that positions of power exist only to benefit the holder of that power,” Ryan Ruzic, chair of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee, told Cointelegraph. “We have a moral responsibility to speak out against corruption, whatever the result may be.”

Pushback on TRUMP memecoin affected crypto legislation

Some lawmakers initially cited the memecoin dinner and the Trump family’s involvement with the crypto platform World Liberty Financial in opposing passage of the GENIUS Act, a bill to regulate payment stablecoins. World Liberty Financial began issuing its own USD1 stablecoin in March, prompting concerns about Trump’s conflicts of interest. However, the legislation passed a key procedural vote in the Senate on May 19 with support from Democrats, setting the bill up for debate in the chamber.

“Many senators, myself included, have very real concerns about the Trump family’s use of crypto technologies to evade oversight, hide shady financial dealings, and personally profit at the expense of everyday Americans,” said Sen. Mark Warner in a statement before the May 19 vote, adding: “But we cannot allow that corruption to blind us to the broader reality: blockchain technology is here to stay.”

Senator Chris Murphy, who voted against advancing the GENIUS Act, called for bipartisan support in amending the bill to specifically bar a US president from issuing stablecoins. He also called on the White House to release a complete list of attendees to the memecoin dinner, suggesting that some or all of them would “try to get something from the president” in exchange for purchasing the tokens.

Murphy and Senator Elizabeth Warren will attend a press event with representatives for Public Citizen on May 22. California Representative Maxine Waters, ranking member of the US House Financial Services Committee, announced a separate press conference for the same day, with plans to introduce a bill to “block Trump’s memecoin and stop his crypto corruption, once and for all.”

As of May 21, the exact number of attendees to the dinner was unknown. A smaller group of 25 tokenholders also qualified to apply for “VIP tour” and reception — presumably at the White House — with Trump, but the complete list of those planning to attend was also unknown at the time of publication.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Key takeaways:

Bitcoin market cycle tops are notoriously hard to time, but combining technical and behavioral indicators can offer strong signals.

The MVRV-Z Score, Pi Cycle Top indicator, trade volume trends, Puell Multiple, and exchange inflows accurately predict Bitcoin price cycle tops.

Bitcoin (BTC) might be approaching the final stage of its current market cycle — a dramatic final rally followed by a sharp correction and, eventually, a bear market. For many, this could be the long-awaited climax of the past four years, and major players are preparing accordingly.

Since late 2024, Bitcoin whale accumulation has surged. Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 100 BTC has jumped by almost 14%, reaching 18,200 — a level not seen since 2017. The biggest market players appear to be positioning for what could be this cycle’s final run-up.

Number of BTC addresses holding over 100 BTC. Source: Glassnode

However, riding the rally is trickier than it looks and knowing when to exit is notoriously difficult. The lure of higher price highs fuels FOMO, driving investors to buy the top, only to face painful drawdowns or even liquidations.

So, how can traders and investors spot the top before the market enters recession?

Bitcoin cycle top markers

Several technical and onchain indicators, such as MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, Pi Cycle Top, and trading volume trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin is nearing its peak.

The MVRV-Z score compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value and adjusts for volatility. A high Z-score suggests Bitcoin is significantly overvalued relative to its historical cost basis. When this indicator is at a historical high, the ensuing downward trend in Bitcoin prices is likely.

The Pi Cycle Top tracks BTC price dynamics using moving averages. When the 111-day moving average (111-SMA) crosses above twice the 350-day average (350-SMAx2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short-term trend catches up to the long-term trajectory, a market top is in.

Historically, all previous Bitcoin bull runs started with a notable surge in MVRV Z-score, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer-term trend.

BTC: Pi Cycle Top + MVRV Z-score. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, Glassnode

Additionally, lower trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often signaling weakening momentum and potential for a reversal. On-balance volume (OBV), which registers cumulative volume flow, is a valuable metric for tracking this process. When OBV diverges from the price action, it is often an early reversal signal. 

The second leg of the 2021 bull run was a great example. While BTC price was hitting higher highs of $68,000 (compared to the previous all-time high of $63,170), trading volumes moved in a different direction, decreasing from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a bearish divergence between price and volume, suggesting that fewer market participants were supporting the rally — a classic sign of waning momentum.

BTC/USD 1-day, OBV. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, TradingView

Profit-taking metrics

As market cycle tops approach, long-term holders and Bitcoin miners often start locking in profits. Some valuable metrics that can track it are the Puell Multiple and exchange flows.

The Puell Multiple Indicator looks at miners’ revenue relative to its 365-day average. High readings indicate miners may start selling aggressively, and are often seen near market tops.

Large inflows to exchanges are usually signs of distribution, as investors prepare to sell their coins. 

BTC total transfer volume to exchanges + Puell Multiple. Source: Marie Poteriaieva, Glassnode

Individually, these indicators can mark various shifts in market trends. Combined, they often align with cycle tops.

Related: Sorry bears — Bitcoin analysis dismisses $107K BTC price double top

The 15% rule

Historic price activity observations might come in handy, too. Crypto market analyst Cole Garner shared his exit playbook based on whales’ behavior. His roadmap includes three steps:

Euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with massive $10,000+ daily candles.

Whiplash. Bitcoin experiences its sharpest correction of the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trendline that’s supported the rally is broken — a clear signal that the top is likely in. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens may continue pumping a little longer.

Complacency. Measure 15% below Bitcoin’s all-time high. That’s the sell zone. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sell orders around this level — a likely institutional exit point.

According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule works not only in crypto but in traditional markets as well.

Historical blow off-tops: BTC, ETH, gold, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Broadvision, 3D Systems. Source: Cole Garner

No single indicator can pinpoint the exact moment to exit, especially in a shifting macro environment. But when multiple signals align, they become hard to ignore. The final leg of a Bitcoin bull market is thrilling, but knowing when the music might stop is key to locking in profits.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.