Bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp rebound after US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for non-retaliating countries, reigniting bullish momentum and raising hopes for a potential surge toward the $100,000 mark.

On April 9, BTC/USD surged by approximately 9%, reversing most of the losses it incurred earlier in the week, to retest $83,000. In doing so, the pair came closer to validating a falling wedge pattern that has been forming on its daily chart since December 2024.

A falling wedge pattern forms when the price trends lower inside a range defined by two converging, descending trendlines.

In a perfect scenario, the setup resolves when the price breaks decisively above the upper trendline and rises by as much as the maximum distance between the upper and lower trendlines.

BTC/USD daily price chart ft. falling wedge breakout setup. Source: TradingView

As of April 9, Bitcoin’s price was confined within the falling wedge range while eyeing a breakout above its upper trendline at around $83,000. If it is confirmed, BTC’s main upside target by June could be around $100,000.

Conversely, a rejection from the upper trendline could raise the likelihood of Bitcoin retreating deeper within the wedge pattern, potentially sliding toward the apex near $71,100.

Source: Merlijn The Trader

If a breakout occurs after testing the $71,100 level, the most conservative upside target for BTC could still be as high as $91,500.

Onchain data supports $100,000 Bitcoin outlook

Bitcoin’s rebound appears just before testing a critical onchain support zone between $65,000 and $71,000, reinforcing the cryptocurrency’s bullish outlook toward the 100,000 mark.

Notably, the $65,000-71,000 range is based on two important Bitcoin metrics—active realized price ($71,000) and the true market mean ($65,000).

Bitcoin short-term onchain cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode

These metrics estimate the average price at which current, active investors bought their Bitcoin. They filter out coins that haven’t moved in a long time or are likely lost, giving a relatively accurate picture of the cost basis for those still participating in the market.

In the past, Bitcoin has spent about half the time trading above this price range and half below, making it a good indicator of whether the market is feeling positive or negative, according to Glassnode analysts.

“We now have confluence across several onchain price models, highlighting the $65k to $71k price range as a critical area of interest for the bulls to establish long-term support,” they wrote in a recent weekly analysis, adding:

“Should price trade meaningfully below this range, a super-majority of active investors would be underwater on their holdings, with likely negative impacts on aggregate sentiment to follow.”

Related: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back

Bitcoin’s worst-case scenario is a decline toward $50,000

Breaking below the $65,000-71,000 range could worsen Bitcoin’s probability of retesting $100,000 anytime soon. Such declines would also lead to the price breaking below its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave).

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The 50-week EMA—near $77,760 as of April 9—has historically acted as a dynamic support during bull markets and a resistance during bear markets, making it a crucial trend-defining level.

Losing this support could open the door for a steeper pullback toward the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) at around $50,000. Previous breakdowns below the 50-week EMA have resulted in similar declines, namely during the 2021-2022 and 2019-2020 bear cycles.

A rebound, on the other hand, raises the likelihood of a $100,000 retest.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Mounting international trade tensions are rattling cryptocurrency markets — but they could also accelerate institutional crypto adoption, several industry executives told Cointelegraph. 

Since US President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs on US imports on April 2, core cryptocurrencies experienced double-digit price swings, worsening an ongoing market rout starting earlier this year. 

However, “[t]he silver lining is that economic uncertainty has historically accelerated institutional interest in digital assets as a diversification strategy,” David Siemer, co-founder and CEO of Wave Digital Assets, told Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin has already shown “signs of resilience” amid the market turbulence, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s potential as a hedge against geopolitical disruption, according to an April 7 Binance report. 

Now, “[a]s traditional banking channels become entangled in geopolitical tensions, we’re witnessing increased demand for blockchain-based settlement solutions that operate outside conventional correspondent banking networks,” Siemer said. 

Bitcoin and the S&P 500’s recent performance. Source: 21Shares

Related: US President Donald Trump issues 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs

Tariff turmoil

On April 9, Trump paused implementation of a portion of the sweeping tariffs he announced last week on US imports while simultaneously vowing to hike levies on Chinese goods to 125%. 

The S&P 500 — an index of the largest US stocks — jumped more than 8% on the news, partially reversing losses tied to Trump’s original tariff announcement, according to Google Finance.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) spot price, as well as the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, rose by a similar amount, roughly 8%, as of late-day trading on April 9, CoinMarketCap data shows.

Crypto market caps are up on April 9. Source: CoinMarketCap

Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols are particularly well-positioned to benefit from trade turmoil, which highlights the segment’s “strategic value,” according to Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, co-founder and CEO of Concrete & Glow Finance.

“DeFi offers a neutral, borderless alternative for accessing credit, earning yield, and moving capital,” Roberts-Huntley said. “For builders, this is an opportunity to double down on interoperability and censorship resistance.”

Still, crypto prices will continue to mirror the broader market for the foreseeable future, Aurelie Barthere, a research analyst at Nansen, told Cointelegraph. If the sell-off continues, expect crypto to behave as “just a higher beta risk asset correlated with risk assets at the moment,” Barthere said.

Magazine: DeFi will rise again after memecoins die down: Sasha Ivanov, X Hall of Flame

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved options trading for multiple spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a move that may broaden the investment appeal of Ether among institutional traders.

The SEC issued the approval on April 9 after reviewing a proposed rule change submitted by BlackRock for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) on July 22, 2024. Similar approvals were granted to Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW), Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), and Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), as well as Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH).

“[T]he Exchange proposes to amend its rules to permit the listing and trading of options on the Trust,” the SEC said in its response to the Nasdaq, adding:

The Exchange states that options on the Trust will provide investors with an additional, relatively lower cost investing tool to gain exposure to spot ether as well as a hedging vehicle to meet their needs in connection with ether products and positions.

The SEC’s approval of options trading on the iShares Ethereum Trust. Source: SEC

Options on ETFs are a portfolio tool that gives investors the ability to hedge against a decline in assets. The strategy’s inclusion is seen as an important step in broadening Ether’s (ETH) investment appeal after regulators approved the spot Ethereum ETFs last July.

So far, net inflows into the spot Ether funds have been fairly muted, with most of the institutional interest flooding into Bitcoin (BTC) funds.

BlackRock’s ETHA currently has $1.8 billion in net assets, down 56% since the start of the year, according to VettaFi.

Related: Ethereum price falls to 2-year low, but pro traders still have hope

Shifting regulatory tides

Since the election of US President Donald Trump, the SEC has signaled its readiness to scale back its enforcement initiatives against the crypto industry. Although this was expected, legal experts with the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance were surprised by “how quickly the shifting priorities would come to fruition” since Trump took office.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, the securities regulator has closed its investigations into various crypto companies, including exchanges Gemini and Coinbase, decentralized exchange developer Uniswap Labs, and NFT marketplace OpenSea.

On the legislative side, regulators are moving quickly to pass pro-stablecoin legislation. The House Financial Services Committee recently advanced the STABLE Act, which is meant to enshrine the use of stablecoins in the United States, and the Senate Banking Committee pushed through the GENIUS Act, which aims to regulate stablecoin issuers.

Lawmakers have also tipped plans to advance a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, which is expected to be finalized this year.

Related: No crypto project has registered with the SEC and ‘lived to tell the tale’ — House committee hearing