Cryptocurrency markets could be on track for recovery as investor sentiment begins to stabilize following US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement — what some analysts are calling the peak of recent market uncertainty.

Trump announced his reciprocal import tariffs on April 2, which sent tremors across global markets. The S&P 500 lost more than $5 trillion, its largest drop on record, surpassing the pandemic-induced crash in March 2020, according to Reuters.

Still, some analysts see a silver lining to the tariff announcement.

“In my opinion, the tariffs are the representation of the uncertainty in the markets,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Consultancy, told Cointelegraph. “Liberation Day is basically the peak of that period, the climax of uncertainty. Now it’s out in the open. Everybody knows the new playing field.”

Van de Poppe added that he believes Trump is using tariffs as a strategic move to stimulate domestic growth and reduce yields. “Tariffs are literally the only way to do that,” he said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re reversed within the next six to 12 months.”

Average tariff rate on US goods and imports. Source: JP Morgan, Ayesha Tariq

President Trump’s plan imposes a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports from April 5 and a higher “reciprocal tariff” of up to 54% on select countries with larger trade deficits from April 9.

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Import tariffs could trigger Fed easing

Still, the end of the uncertainty could bring renewed investment into crypto markets, leading to a recovery, Van de Poppe said:

“We’ll start to see the rotation toward the crypto markets in the coming period where there’s more calm and peace in the markets where investors start to buy the dip and understand that some things have been undervalued.”

He noted that the economic impact of the tariffs may ultimately lead the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and begin a new round of quantitative easing (QE), a monetary policy that involves the Fed buying bonds to inject liquidity into the economy.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has predicted Bitcoin could climb to $250,000 if the Fed formally enters a QE cycle.

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Trump tariff uncertainty still weighing on sentiment

On the downside, the tariff-related uncertainty may continue pressuring risk asset appetite for weeks, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter.

“We can count on President Trump changing his mind a few times within the first couple of weeks,” Acheson told Cointelegraph. She added:

“With heightened uncertainty a given in these markets, we can expect more risk-off behavior, even though some short-term bounces may bring some relief.”

“For crypto, BTC continues to act like a risk asset short-term while its analog counterpart gold breaks through one all-time high after another,” a development that may impact crypto investor sentiment in the short term, Acheson said.

Meanwhile, crypto intelligence firm Nansen estimated a 70% probability that the market could bottom by June, depending on how the tariff negotiations evolve.

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Decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges (DEXs) continue to challenge the dominance of centralized platforms, even as a recent $6.2 million exploit on Hyperliquid highlights risks in DEX infrastructure.

A cryptocurrency whale made at least $6.26 million profit on the Jelly my Jelly (JELLY) memecoin by exploiting the liquidation parameters on Hyperliquid, Cointelegraph reported on March 27. 

The exploit was the second major incident on the platform in March, noted CoinGecko co-founder Bobby Ong.

“$JELLYJELLY was the more notable attack where we saw Binance and OKX listing perps, drawing accusations of coordinating an attack against Hyperliquid,” Ong said in an April 3 X post, adding:

“It’s clear that CEXes are feeling threatened by DEXes, and are not going to see their market share erode without putting on a fight.”

DEX growth reshapes derivatives market

Hyperliquid is the eighth-largest perpetual futures exchange by volume across both centralized and decentralized exchanges. This puts it “ahead of some notable OGs such as HTX, Kraken and BitMEX,” Ong noted, citing an April 4 research report.

Related: Bitcoin to $110K next, Hyperliquid whale bags $6.2M ‘short’ exploit: Finance Redefined

Hyperliquid’s growing trading volume is starting to cut into the market share of other centralized exchanges.

Top derivative exchanges by open interest. Source: CoinGecko 

Hyperliquid is the 12th-largest derivatives exchange, with an over $3 billion 24-hour open interest — though it still trails Binance’s $19.5 billion by a wide margin, CoinGecko data shows.

According to Bitget Research analyst Ryan Lee, the incident may harm user confidence in emerging decentralized platforms, especially if actions taken post-exploit appear overly centralized.

“Hyperliquid’s intervention — criticized as centralized despite its decentralized ethos — may make investors wary of similar platforms,” Lee said.

Whale exploits Hyperliquid’s trading logic

The unknown Hyperliquid whale managed to exploit Hyperliquid’s liquidation parameters by deploying millions of dollars worth of trading positions.

The whale opened two long positions of $2.15 million and $1.9 million, and a $4.1 million short position that effectively offset the longs, according to a postmortem by blockchain analytics firm Arkham.

Hyperliquid exploiter, transactions. Source: Arkham

When the price of JELLY rose by 400%, the $4 million short position wasn’t immediately liquidated due to its size. Instead, it was absorbed into the Hyperliquidity Provider Vault (HLP), which is designed to liquidate large positions.

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As of March 27, the unknown whale still held 10% of the memecoin’s total supply, worth nearly $2 million, despite Hyperliquid freezing and delisting the memecoin, citing “evidence of suspicious market activity” involving trading instruments.

The Hyperliquid exploit occurred two weeks after a Wolf of Wall Street-inspired memecoin — launched by the Official Melania Meme (MELANIA) and Libra (LIBRA) token co-creator Hayden Davis — crashed over 99% after launching with an 80% insider supply.

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Nearly 400,000 creditors of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX risk missing out on $2.5 billion in repayments after failing to begin the mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) verification process.

Roughly 392,000 FTX creditors have failed to complete or at least take the first steps of the mandatory Know Your Customer verification, according to an April 2 court filing in the US Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware.

FTX users originally had until March 3 to begin the verification process to collect their claims.

“If a holder of a claim listed on Schedule 1 attached thereto did not commence the KYC submission process with respect to such claim on or prior to March 3, 2025, at 4:00 pm (ET) (the “KYC Commencing Deadline”), 2 such claim shall be disallowed and expunged in its entirety,” the filing states.

FTX court filing. Source: Bloomberglaw.com

The KYC deadline has been extended to June 1, 2025, giving users another chance to verify their identity and claim eligibility. Those who fail to meet the new deadline may have their claims permanently disqualified.

According to the court documents, claims under $50,000 could account for roughly $655 million in disallowed repayments, while claims over $50,000 could amount to $1.9 billion — bringing the total at-risk funds to more than $2.5 billion.

FTX court filing, estimated claims. Source: Sunil

The next round of FTX creditor repayments is set for May 30, 2025, with over $11 billion expected to be repaid to creditors with claims of over $50,000.

Under FTX’s recovery plan, 98% of creditors are expected to receive at least 118% of their original claim value in cash.

Related: FTX liquidated $1.5B in 3AC assets 2 weeks before hedge fund’s collapse

How FTX users can complete KYC

Many FTX users have reported problems with the KYC process.

However, users who were unable to submit their KYC documentation can resubmit their application and restart the verification process, according to an April 5 X post from Sunil, FTX creditor and Customer Ad-Hoc Committee member.

FTX KYC portal. Source: Sunil

Impacted users should email FTX support (support@ftx.com) to receive a ticket number, then log in to the support portal, create an account, and re-upload the necessary KYC documents.

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FTX’s Bahamian subsidiary, FTX Digital Markets, processed the first round of repayments in February, distributing $1.2 billion to creditors.

The crypto industry is still recovering from the collapse of FTX and more than 130 subsidiaries launched a series of insolvencies that led to the industry’s longest-ever crypto winter, which saw Bitcoin’s (BTC) price bottom out at around $16,000.

While not a “market-moving catalyst” in itself, the beginning of the FTX repayments is a positive sign for the maturation of the crypto industry, which may see a “significant portion” reinvested into cryptocurrencies, Alvin Kan, chief operating officer at Bitget Wallet, told Cointelegraph.

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