Bitcoin’s (BTC) four-year cycle, anchored around its halving events, is widely recognized as a key factor in BTC’s year-over-year price growth. Within this larger framework, traders have come to expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic rallies, and eventual crashes.

Throughout the four-year period, shorter-duration cycles also emerge, often driven by shifts in market sentiment and the behavior of long- and short-term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market participants, can provide insights into Bitcoin’s next moves.

Bitcoin whales eat as markets retreat

Long-term Bitcoin holders — those holding for three to five years — are often considered the most seasoned participants. Typically wealthier and more experienced, they can weather extended bear markets and tend to sell near local tops. 

According to recent data from Glassnode, long-term holders distributed over 2 million BTC in two distinct waves during the current cycle. Both waves were followed by strong reaccumulation, which helped absorb sell-side pressure and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long-term Bitcoin holders are in the new accumulation period. Since mid-February, this cohort’s wealth increased sharply by almost 363,000 BTC.

Total BTC supply held by long-term holders. Source: Glassnode

Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often seen as more seasoned than the average market participant are whales—addresses holding over 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long-term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-whales holding more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 such addresses, according to BitInfoCharts, and their recent activity points to ongoing accumulation.

Glassnode data shows that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~1.0) in early April, indicating intense buying over a 15-day period. The score has since eased to ~0.65 but still reflects consistent accumulation. These large holders appear to be buying from smaller cohorts—specifically wallets with less than 1 BTC and those with under 100 BTC—whose accumulation scores have dipped toward 0.1–0.2. 

This divergence signals growing distribution from retail to large holders and marks potential for future price support (whales tend to hold long-time). Oftentimes, it also precedes bullish periods.

The last time mega-whales hit a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was trading near $60,000. Two months later, BTC raced to $108,000.

BTC trend accumulation score by cohort. Source: Glassnode

Short-term holders are heavily impacted by market sentiment

Short-term holders, usually defined as those holding BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They’re more prone to selling during corrections or periods of uncertainty. 

This behavior also follows a pattern. Glassnode data shows that spending levels tend to rise and fall approximately every 8 to 12 months. 

Currently, short-term holders’ spending activity is at a historically low point despite the turbulent macro environment. This suggests that so far, many newer Bitcoin buyers are choosing to hold rather than panic-sell. However, if the Bitcoin price drops further, short-term holders may be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.

BTC short-term holders’ spending activity. Source: Glassnode

Markets are driven by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial, and euphoria don’t just influence individual decisions — they shape entire market moves. This is why we often see familiar patterns: bubbles inflate as greed takes hold, then collapse under the weight of panic selling. 

CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed Index illustrates this rhythm well. This metric, based on several market indicators, typically cycles every 3 to 5 months, swinging from neutral to either greed or fear.

Since February, market sentiment has remained in the fear and extreme fear territory, now worsened by US President Donald Trump’s trade war and the collapse in global stock market prices. However, human psychology is cyclical, and the market might see a potential return to a “neutral” sentiment within the next 1-3 months.

Fear & Greed Index chart. Source: CoinMarketCap

Perhaps the most fascinating aspect of market cycles is how they can become self-fulfilling. When enough people believe in a pattern, they start acting on it, taking profits at expected peaks and buying dips at expected bottoms. This collective behavior reinforces the cycle and adds to its persistence.

Bitcoin is a prime example. Its cycles may not run on precise schedules, but they rhyme consistently enough to shape expectations — and, in turn, influence reality.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Escalating geopolitical tensions threaten to balkanize blockchain networks and restrict users’ access, crypto executives told Cointelegraph. 

On April 9, US President Donald Trump announced a pause in the rollout of tariffs imposed on certain countries — but the prospect of a global trade war still looms, especially because Trump still wants to charge a 125% levy on Chinese imports. 

Industry executives said they fear a litany of potential consequences if tensions worsen, including disruptions to blockchain networks’ physical infrastructure, regulatory fragmentation, and censorship. 

“Aggressive tariffs and retaliatory trade policies could create obstacles for node operators, validators, and other core participants in blockchain networks,” Nicholas Roberts-Huntley, CEO of Concrete & Glow Finance, told Cointelegraph. 

“In moments of global uncertainty, the infrastructure supporting crypto, not just the assets themselves, can become collateral damage.”

According to data from CoinMarketCap, cryptocurrency’s total market capitalization dropped approximately 4% on April 10 as traders weighed conflicting messages from the White House on tariffs amid a backdrop of macroeconomic unease. 

Crypto’s market cap retraced on April 10. Source: CoinMarketCap

Related: Trade tensions to speed institutional crypto adoption — Execs

Bitcoin’s vulnerabilities

Bitcoin (BTC) is especially vulnerable to a trade war since the network depends on specialized hardware for Bitcoin mining, such as the ASIC chips used to solve the network’s cryptographic proofs. 

“Tariffs disrupt established ASIC supply chains,” David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, told Cointelegraph. Chinese manufacturers such as Bitmain are key suppliers for miners.

However, “the greater threat is the erosion of blockchain’s core value proposition—its global, permissionless infrastructure,” Siemer said. This could be especially problematic for everyday crypto holders. 

“If global trade breaks down and capital controls tighten, it may become harder for citizens in restrictive countries to acquire bitcoin,” said Joe Kelly, CEO of Unchained. “Governments could crack down on exchanges and on-ramps, making accumulation and usage more difficult,” Kelly added.

Bitcoin’s performance versus stocks. Source: 21Shares

Ironically, these types of fears also underscore the importance of cryptocurrencies and decentralized blockchain networks, the executives said. 

Bitcoin has already shown “signs of resilience” amid the market turbulence, highlighting the coin’s role in hedging against geopolitical risks. 

“While the environment is challenging, it also creates an opening for crypto to prove its long-term value and utility on the global stage,” noted Fireblocks’ executive Neil Chopra.

Magazine: Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research

Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced significant pressure amid uncertainty caused by the ongoing global trade war. Between March 28 and April 8, these ETFs experienced net outflows totaling $595 million, according to Farside Investors data. Notably, even after most US import tariffs were temporarily lifted on April 9, the funds still recorded an additional $127 million in net outflows.

This situation has left traders questioning the reasons behind the continued outflows and why Bitcoin’s rally to $82,000 on April 9 failed to boost confidence among ETF investors.

Spot Bitcoin ETF net flows. Source: Farside Investors

Corporate credit risk could be driving investors away from BTC

One factor contributing to diminished interest is the rising likelihood of an economic recession. “What you can clearly observe is that liquidity on the credit side has dried up,” Lazard Asset Management global fixed income co-head Michael Weidner told Reuters. Essentially, investors are shifting toward safer assets like government bonds and cash holdings, a trend that could ultimately lead to a credit crunch.

A credit crunch is a sharp decline in loan availability, leading to reduced business investment and consumer spending. It can happen regardless of US Treasury yields because heightened borrower risk perceptions may independently restrict credit supply.

RW Baird strategist Ross Mayfield noted that even if the US Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates in an effort to stabilize turbulent markets, any relief for companies might be short-lived.

Mayfield reportedly stated: “In a stagflationary environment from tariffs, you’ll see both investment grade and high yield corporate borrowers struggle as their costs of debt rise.” Despite the 10-year US Treasury yield remaining flat compared to the previous month, investor appetite for corporate debt remains weak.

ICE Bank of America Corporate Index option-adjusted spread. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Dan Krieter, director of fixed income strategy at BMO Capital Markets, told Reuters that corporate bond spreads have experienced their largest one-week widening since the regional banking crisis in March 2023. Corporate bond spreads measure the difference in interest rates between corporate bonds and government bonds, reflecting the additional risk investors take when lending to companies.

Related: Bitwise doubles down on $200K Bitcoin price prediction amid trade tension

Trade war takes center stage, limiting investor interest in BTC

Investors remain concerned that even if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it may not be enough to restore confidence in the economy. This sentiment also explains why the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March—at 2.8%, its slowest annual increase in four years—failed to positively impact stock markets. “This is the last clean print we’re going to see before we get those tariff-induced inflation increases,” Joe Brusuelas, RSM chief economist, told Yahoo Finance.

Traders appear to be waiting for stabilization in the corporate bond market before regaining confidence in Bitcoin ETF inflows. As long as recession risks remain elevated, investors will likely favor safer assets such as government bonds and cash holdings. Breaking this correlation would require a shift in perception toward Bitcoin’s fixed monetary policy and censorship resistance. However, potential catalysts for such a change remain unclear and could take months or even years.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.