Prediction marketplace Kalshi has started taking Bitcoin (BTC) deposits in a bid to onboard more crypto-native users.

The company that lets users bet on events ranging from election outcomes to Rotten Tomatoes film ratings has seen a strong uptake among crypto traders, Kalshi told Cointelegraph on April 9. For instance, event contracts for betting on Bitcoin’s hour-by-hour price changes have seen $143 million in trading volume to date, a spokesperson said.

Kalshi is a derivatives exchange regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As of April 9, it listed some 50 crypto-related event contracts, including markets for betting on coins’ 2025 highs and lows, as well as on headlines such as US President Donald Trump’s proposed National Bitcoin Reserve. 

Kalshi has doubled down on crypto event contract markets. Source: Kalshi

The platform started accepting crypto payments in October when it enabled stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) deposits. 

Kalshi relies on ZeroHash — a crypto payments infrastructure provider — for off-ramping BTC and USDC and converting the deposits to US dollars. The exchange accepts BTC deposits only from the Bitcoin network.

Most Kalshi traders no longer expect core tokens to earn positive returns this year. Source: Kalshi

Related: Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%

More accurate than polls

Launched in 2021, Kalshi rose to prominence ahead of the US’s November elections. 

It became a top venue for trading on 2024 political events after winning a lawsuit against the CFTC, which tried to block Kalshi from listing contracts tied to elections. 

The regulator argued that political prediction markets threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls. 

For instance, prediction markets, including Kalshi, accurately predicted Trump’s presidential election win even as polls indicated a tossup.

“Event contract markets are a valuable public good for which there is no evidence of significant manipulation or widespread use for any nefarious purposes that the Commission alleges,” Harry Crane, a statistics professor at Rutgers University, said in an August comment letter filed with the CFTC.

As of April 9, Kalshi traders peg the odds of the US entering a recession at 68%, according to its website.

In March, Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to bring prediction markets to the popular online brokerage platform. Robinhood’s stock rose some 8% on the news. 

Kalshi competes with Polymarket, a Web3-based prediction platform. Polymarket processed more than $3 billion in trading volumes tied to the US presidential election despite being off-limits for US traders.

Magazine: Bitcoin heading to $70K soon? Crypto baller funds SpaceX flight: Hodler’s Digest, March 30 – April 5

United States President Donald Trump has issued a 90-day pause for “reciprocal tariffs,” and lowered the tariff rate to 10% on countries that do not retaliate with counter-tariffs.

However, the President also said he would increase the reciprocal tariff rate on China to 125% due to the country’s counter-tariffs against the US. Trump wrote in an April 9 Truth Social post:

“At some point, hopefully, in the near future, China will realize that the days of ripping off the USA and other countries is no longer sustainable or acceptable.”

According to data from TradingView, the S&P 500 index rallied by close to 7% and the Nasdaq is up roughly 8% following the announcement, showcasing the high volatility of capital markets amid the macroeconomic uncertainty and the potential for a protracted trade conflict.

Source: Donald J. Trump

Related: Bitcoin has ‘fully decoupled’ despite tariff turmoil, says Adam Back

This is a developing story, and further information will be added as it becomes available.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) futures market reflects a possible price cooldown after the cryptocurrency’s multiple weeks of correction. Data from CryptoQuant indicated that the BTC-USDT futures leverage ratio with respect to open interest (OI) has halved since peaking in early 2025.

Bitcoin estimated futures leveraged ratio. Source: CryptoQuant

This significant de-leveraging has occurred because of massive liquidations over the past few weeks, which has effectively taken a majority of traders out of the market. Thus, the current market conditions indicate a healthier market reset, which is not overheated and could potentially pave the way for a steady price recovery.

Bitcoin’s open interest dropped 28% from $71.8 billion on Dec. 18 to $51.8 billion on April 8. This underscores the magnitude of the current deleveraging event. Although this may induce short-term volatility, as few market players might control the price, it also positions BTC for stability in the long term, offering an advantage in the current uncertain trend.

Related: Bitcoin futures divergences point to transitioning market — Are BTC bulls accumulating?

$70K Bitcoin is the worst-case scenario, says analyst

In an X post, Sina, the co-founder of 21st Capital, presented an update on his Bitcoin Quantile Model and said that “Bitcoin is getting significantly de-risked here.”

Bitcoin Quantile Model. Source: X.com

The analyst explained that Bitcoin might have already completed 75-80% of its correction, declining from $109,000 to $74,500. Historically, prices have fallen by as much as 34% during the six-to-eight-week span of such trends. Currently, Bitcoin has dropped 31% from its all-time high, and a further decline to $72,000-$70,000 would bring it to approximately 34%. Sina added,

“Absent a recession, $70K is my worst-case scenario. While the macro backdrop remains grim and further sell-off is possible, we think Bitcoin is deeply undervalued for a long-term investor.”

However, the likelihood of an immediate recovery remains low, as Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. expects BTC to move sideways in the “volatility corridor.”

Bitcoin support and resistance level. Source: X.com

The volatility corridor identified a price range of $75,000 to $96,000, outlined with the help of short-term holders’ realized prices over different time periods.

Adler Jr. said that it was possible that BTC would consolidate between these levels over the next few weeks but warned that the price must hold a position above the 365-day simple moving average. A break below the key indicator could potentially lead to a new yearly low below the $74,500 level, with the ideal price being $70,000, as noted earlier.

Related: Trump tariffs reignite idea that Bitcoin could outlast US dollar

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.