Connect with us

Coin Market

PwC hedge fund survey finds crypto remains viable despite recent market turmoil

Published

on

The portion of traditional hedge funds investing in crypto fell, but many of those still in the market plan to increase crypto investing this year.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Coin Market

Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 — Coinbase

Published

on

By

A monthly market review by publicly traded US-based crypto exchange Coinbase shows that while the crypto market has contracted, it appears to be gearing up for a better quarter.

According to Coinbase’s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing.

Venture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%–60% from 2021–22. In the report, Coinbase’s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.

“Several converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new ‘crypto winter’ as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,” he said.

Related: How trade wars impact stocks and crypto

Macroeconomic woes cause crypto turmoil

The report notes that lower venture capitalist interest “significantly limits the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem,” which is felt primarily in the altcoin sector. The cause of that, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:

“All of these structural pressures stem from the uncertainty of the broader macro environment, where traditional risk assets have faced sustained headwinds from fiscal tightening and tariff policies, contributing to the paralysis in investment decision making.“

According to Coinbase researchers, those facts have resulted in “a difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset space,” and warrant continued caution in the next four to six weeks. Still, the report’s author said that the market is likely to change directions explosively:

“When the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to happen rather quickly and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.“

Duong cited some metrics to indicate when the crypto market is moving between bull and bear market phases, including risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average.

Another metric was the Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares market value and realized value to identify overbought and oversold conditions. A Z-score shows how unusual current price performance is when compared to historic data.

Bitcoin’s risk-adjusted performance. Source: Coinbase

This metric “naturally accounts for crypto’s larger volatility,” but it is also slow to react. This metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. Coinbase’s model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended in late February but has since deemed the market neutral.

Coinbase’s Z-score Bitcoin model. Source: Coinbase

Instead, Coinbase’s analyst suggested that the 200-day moving average is a better indicator for determining market trends. It smooths out short-term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days’ worth of market data.

Coinbase’s 200-day moving average Bitcoin model. Source: Coinbase

The report also said that gauging the broader crypto market’s trend by the direction in which Bitcoin is moving is increasingly less reliable. This is because crypto expands into new sectors with decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), artificial intelligence agents, and more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin’s wide price range to continue, no longer a ’long only’ bet — Analyst

Are we in a bear market?

Duong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that Bitcoin’s recent decline moved it into bear market territory in late March. Still, applying the same model to the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the top 50 crypto assets shows a bear market since the end of February.

Coinbase’s 200-day moving average model applied to the Coin50 index. Source: Coinbase

Recent reports indicated that Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets. “Bitcoin’s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period, “according to Wintermute.

Duong sees Bitcoin becoming less of a generalized crypto indicator as a consequence of this trend. He wrote:

“As Bitcoin’s role as a ‘store of value’ continues to grow, we think a holistic evaluation of crypto’s aggregate market activity will be needed to better define bull and bear markets for the asset class.“

Magazine: Bitcoin eyes $100K by June, Shaq to settle NFT lawsuit, and more: Hodler’s Digest, April 6 – 12

Continue Reading

Coin Market

How trade wars impact stocks and crypto

Published

on

By

The 2025 US-China trade war

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump declared a national economic emergency and announced sweeping new import tariffs.

Dubbed “Liberation Day,” the policy set a baseline 10% tariff on all foreign goods, with a massive 145% rate on products from China. The move was framed as a way to fix long-standing trade imbalances and protect national industries.

China responded almost immediately. Tariffs on US imports jumped to 125%, and restrictions were introduced on the export of rare earth elements, materials essential to global manufacturing. Within days, trade between the world’s two largest economies had slowed dramatically.

The markets didn’t take it well. The S&P 500 dropped 15% in under a week. The Nasdaq was down nearly 20% for the year by April 7. Investors were rattled by the scale of the escalation and the potential knock-on effects on global growth.

Crypto didn’t stay quiet either. As stocks fell and uncertainty spread, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a surge in trading volumes, with many turning to digital assets as a hedge.

What follows is a closer look at how these trade tensions hit financial markets, starting with traditional stocks and then crypto.

Trade wars’ impact on stocks

Markets don’t like surprises – and they really don’t like trade wars. 

When the US announced its 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April 2025, the response from Wall Street was swift and brutal. The S&P 500 tanked more than 10% in just two days. Tech stocks took it even harder, with the Nasdaq shedding nearly 20% since the start of the year.

Still, if you’ve watched the markets through past trade fights, this was all pretty familiar. In 2018–19, during the first round of US-China tariff battles, every tweet about negotiations or new duties sent stocks whipsawing. And if you zoom way out, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 is one of the earliest and most notorious examples as tariffs piled up, global trade shrank and the Great Depression got worse.

So why do stocks get hit so hard? A few reasons. Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which squeezes profit margins for companies that rely on international supply chains. When a carmaker or electronics brand has to pay more for components, that cost either eats into profits or gets passed on to customers. Either way, it’s bad news for earnings, and earnings are what drive stock valuations.

There’s also the fear factor. Trade wars inject a lot of uncertainty into the economy. Will more tariffs follow? Will other countries retaliate? That kind of unpredictability causes companies to delay investments and hiring, while consumers may start pulling back on spending. This shows up as increased market volatility, often tracked by the VIX, Wall Street’s so-called “fear index,” which tends to spike in times like this.

Central banks sometimes try to cushion the blow by tweaking interest rates or injecting liquidity. But there’s only so much they can do when the root of the problem is political. 

Did you know? On April 9, 2025, Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries. He explained the pause by saying people were getting “a little bit yippy,” his way of describing nervousness in the markets.

When tariffs hit, crypto takes a punch, then bounces back

The tariffs hit crypto, too, but the market recovered just days later, reflecting crypto’s volatile yet responsive nature during global uncertainty.

After Trump’s new tariffs were announced, Bitcoin slid to around $76,000. Ethereum and other major tokens followed suit, and around $200 billion was wiped off the total crypto market cap in a few days.

Again, this kind of sell-off isn’t unusual. When uncertainty spikes – like during a sudden escalation in global trade tensions – investors tend to play it safe. That means pulling out of more volatile assets, including crypto, and moving into what’s seen as safer ground, like cash or bonds. It’s a classic “risk-off” move.

But as you’ve seen before, crypto doesn’t stay down for long. By mid-April, Bitcoin had bounced back and was trading at just under $85,000. Ether (ETH), XRP (XRP) and other major altcoins also recovered some ground. For many investors, this rebound was a reminder that while crypto is volatile, it’s also increasingly viewed as a valuable hedge, something outside the reach of any government or policy decision.

In 2018–19, during an earlier round of US-China tensions, Bitcoin showed similar patterns: short-term drops followed by fast recoveries. And earlier in 2025, new tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports triggered a dip that quickly reversed.

Stocks, meanwhile, tend to have a tougher time recovering. As of April, the S&P 500 is down nearly 9% for 2025, and the Nasdaq is off more than 13%. There was a brief lift after the US paused some tariffs for 90 days, but overall, the mood in equity markets remains shaky. 

What trade wars mean for supply chains and consumers

The ripple effects of the 2025 trade war are grinding through global supply chains, one industry at a time. 

From electronics to autos to medicine, the cost of moving goods worldwide is rising. Let’s talk about a few industries in particular. 

Trade wars’ impact on electronics and semiconductors

Electronics are at the heart of it. In 2024, the US imported $146 billion of electronics from China. With tariffs on those goods jumping, companies could be looking at an added $182 billion in annual costs if these rates stick around.

This is also a problem for consumers. Take Apple, for example. With no lasting exemption for phones, an iPhone 16 Pro Max could climb from $1,199 to over $1,800. Add in uncertainty about future duties on laptops, chips and smart devices, and the entire sector is on edge. 

Trade wars’ impact on the automotive industry

Carmakers are in a similar bind. The US has raised tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles from 25% to more than 100%. And it’s not just the finished cars — batteries, chips, and other parts sourced from China are also caught in the crossfire.

For electric vehicle manufacturers, in particular, this is a serious hit. Chinese battery components are essential for many US and European EV brands. With supply chains suddenly tangled in red tape and higher costs, some automakers are pausing production or switching suppliers.

Trade wars’ impact on pharmaceuticals

Even the healthcare system is feeling it. The US depends heavily on China for key medical supplies and pharmaceutical ingredients. With new tariffs, prices are climbing, and existing shortages are worsening.

Industry experts are warning of major disruptions. Everything from common medications to hospital-grade equipment is likely to get more expensive. And in a healthcare system already under pressure, even a small bottleneck can cause big problems down the line.

Did you know? European markets are already seeing signs of a spillover. Chinese exporters, locked out of the US by tariffs, are redirecting goods to Europe, especially in tech and consumer goods.

Rising tariffs, shaky markets, what’s next?

The big picture regarding the 2025 US-China trade war still looks hazy amid real implications for investors, business leaders and policymakers worldwide.

Let’s examine the short-, medium- and long-term outlooks. 

Short-term

There’s been a bit of short-term relief. When the US announced exemptions on some tech products – like smartphones and laptops – from the harshest tariffs, markets breathed a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 saw an uptick, and global markets followed suit. Tech-heavy Asian indexes rallied, and European markets, including Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100, climbed. Even US bank earnings helped push optimism a bit further.

Still, it’s probably temporary. These exemptions are under review, and the bigger trade policy feels like shifting sand. 

Medium-term

Looking ahead a bit further, the risks start to grow. If the trade conflict drags on, it could seriously slow down global growth. JPMorgan recently raised its global recession risk to 60%, and that’s no small thing. Central banks are already weighing their next moves; interest rate adjustments, coordinated actions, and contingency planning are all back on the table.

Some voices, like former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, call for a global response similar to what we saw during the 2008 financial crisis. Meanwhile, businesses are rethinking their supply chains and scrambling to find alternatives, something that’s easier said than done.

Long-term 

You’re seeing a pivot with nations exploring new trade deals and trying to reduce reliance on traditional powerhouses. China, for example, is pushing harder to internationalize the yuan and accelerate its Belt and Road Initiative. Conversely, the US is leaning into domestic manufacturing and trying to reduce its dependence on imports.

And the consequences could be massive. The WTO has warned that trade between the US and China could shrink by as much as 80%. That’s a huge shift, considering these two countries account for about 3% of global trade. If that drop materializes, it could rattle the global economy.

Continue Reading

Coin Market

Bitcoin trader sees gold 'blow-off top' as XAU nears new $3.3K record

Published

on

By

Bitcoin (BTC) faces an uphill struggle as a safe haven in 2025 as gold fund inflows circle $80 billion.

Data from Bank of America (BoA) uploaded to X by trading resource The Kobeissi Letter on April 15 confirms gold’s “best streak” since 2013.

Gold beats records as Bitcoin ETFs slump

As the US trade war sees investors flee to gold, Bitcoin has lost the limelight as a hedge against macroeconomic volatility.

BoA figures show inflows to gold funds beating records, with data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView capturing new all-time highs for XAU/USD near $3,300 per ounce on April 16.

“Gold fund net inflows have hit a record $80 BILLION year-to-date. This is 2 TIMES more than the previous high set in the full year 2020,” Kobeissi noted. 

“Investors are pouring money into gold at a record pace as the market uncertainty has skyrocketed. As a result, gold prices have rallied 22% year-to-date and have outperformed every other major asset class.”

Gold fund flows chart. Source: The Kobeissi Letter/X

BTC price action, by contrast, paints a very different picture. Despite the appearance of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and growing global integration, BTC/USD reached five-month lows earlier in April.

Data from onchain analytics platform Glassnode calculates that the ETFs’ combined assets under management fell from $106 billion at the start of the year to $92 billion this week.

“Gold prices have also hit 52 all-time highs over the last year, posting the best streak in 12 years,” Kobeissi concluded. 

“Gold is the global safe haven.”

US spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Glassnode

Gold “terminal top” meets Bitcoin bulls

Despite its repeated new records, market commentators already see gold’s unprecedented upside coming to an end.

Related: Can 3-month Bitcoin RSI highs counter bearish BTC price ‘seasonality?

Addressing the topic on X this week, veteran trader Peter Brandt called a “blow-off top” on XAU/USD.

“Gold has now entered its blow-off stage,” he summarized. 

“Such rapid advancement will come to a terminal top, but attempting to pick a high can be very expensive. Blow off tops can extend well beyond a bear’s ability to meet margin calls.”

XAU/USD 1-day chart. Source: Peter Brandt/X

A gold comedown may well leave room for Bitcoin to catch up, per a popular theory that says that BTC/USD copies gold trends with a delay of several months.

Great chart from my Partner, David Foley.
Shows how Gold moves first, Bitcoin follows harder. Scale different for each.@DAAF17 pic.twitter.com/jHMe6apewj

— Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard) April 13, 2025

“Nobody really knows why that happens,” Professional Capital Management founder and CEO Anthony Pompliano told CNBC on April 15.

Pompliano suggested that traditional financial entities were either unauthorized or simply “not used” to the idea of Bitcoin as protection against macro uncertainty.

“What we do see though is that when gold runs, about 100 days later or so, Bitcoin not only catches up; it usually runs much harder, and so you get that higher volatility,” he said.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Continue Reading

Trending