Key Takeaways: 

XRP has gained 25% since April 7, and its open interest has risen by 32%.

Positive spot market activity contrasts with a neutral futures funding rate, highlighting a tug-of-war between traders.

Analysts still have double-digit price targets for XRP.

XRP’s (XRP) price fell to a year-to-date low of $1.61 on April 7, but has gained 25% over the past two weeks as the broader crypto market recovered and XRP open interest surged.

XRP futures open interest. Source: CoinGlass

The altcoin’s open interest surged 32% from $3.14 billion to $4.13 billion between April 21 and 23, signaling the return of derivatives traders. Futures OI increasing alongside the price indicates a bullish sentiment, but data from the Velo painted a different picture. 

Based on the negative aggregated premium on open interest, the XRP futures market continued to bid against an XRP price rise. The funding rate remained near 0, implying a neutral stance between the bulls and bears. 

XRP aggregated premium, spot tape and open interest chart. Source: Velo

The aggregated spot tape cumulative volume delta became positive in April. This indicator measures the net difference between aggressive buy and sell trades across various exchanges. When it turns green and rises above zero, it indicates increasing buying pressure, with market buy trades surpassing sell trades.

Despite rising futures interest, the data suggests XRP’s price remains caught in a tug-of-war between bullish spot market activity and bearish perpetual futures.

Related: Price predictions 4/23: BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL, DOGE, ADA, LINK, AVAX, SUI

Is XRP destined for double-digits?

Following XRP’s price pump, Sistine Research, a crypto investment community, posted a bold prediction for XRP, forecasting a long-term target between $33 and $50. The prediction is based on a higher time frame (HTF) symmetrical triangle that mirrors 2017’s 2,600% rally. The platform suggested that an optimistic target may drive prices as high as $77-$100.

XRP price target by Sistine Research. Source: X.com

For context, XRP is currently valued at $2.23 with a market cap of $131 billion. A $33 target increases the market cap to ~$2 trillion (1,400 %+), which is more than Bitcoin’s current market cap. 

From a lower-time frame (LTF) perspective, XRP shows an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which could potentially test the resistance range between $2.50 and $2.67. The resistance range also coincides with the Fibonacci extension levels drawn from the neckline’s base to the head’s lowest point.

Although the relative strength index (RSI) is nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential pause in price movement at the current range.

XRP 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Related: XRP Ledger Foundation spots ‘crypto stealing backdoor’ in code library

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

United States exchanges are betting big on cryptocurrency derivatives as market turbulence from US President Donald Trump’s looming trade war propels demand for the financial instruments. 

Since late 2024, exchanges including Coinbase, Robinhood, Kraken, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group have been listing new types of crypto derivatives and mulling multibillion-dollar acquisitions as they vie for control of the burgeoning market. 

In April, the stakes became even higher after Trump’s unveiling of sweeping tariff plans sent financial markets into a frenzy and spiked crypto derivatives trading volumes. 

“Institutional and sophisticated retail traders are increasingly turning to crypto derivatives platforms to navigate macroeconomic risks and uncertainty brought on by escalated tariff policies and global trade tensions,” David Siemer, CEO of asset manager Wave Digital Assets, told Cointelegraph. 

Consequently, US exchanges are “experiencing record-breaking surges in trading activity and are expanding their investment offerings with the promise of regulatory clarity,” Siemer said.

Net open interest in Bitcoin futures rose sharply in April. Source: Coinalyze

Related: Coinbase launches CFTC-regulated SOL futures in US

Trump spikes trading activity

Crypto derivatives trading activity took off in 2024 after Trump’s November election victory sent exchange volumes to record highs. 

In December, Coinbase said trading activity on its derivatives exchange rose by more than 10,000% year-over-year. Similarly, CME Group flagged crypto derivatives as among the exchange’s fastest-growing product segments during its 2024 earnings call. 

Trump’s tariff plans, announced April 2, further accelerated trading activity. As of April 23, net open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures, the most popular crypto derivatives, rose by approximately 30% from the start of the month, according to data from Coinalyze. 

Futures contracts are standardized agreements to buy or sell an underlying asset at a future date, often using leverage in a bid to enhance returns. 

Kraken bought NinjaTrader in March. Source: Kraken

Heated competition

Burgeoning trading volumes are fueling competition among exchanges. 

Since February, Coinbase has launched several new crypto derivatives products, including futures contracts tied to altcoins such as Solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP).

Meanwhile, Robinhood listed Bitcoin futures — its first crypto derivatives contracts — in February and, in March, CME Group listed its first Solana futures contracts. 

The CME SOL futures clocked upward of $12 billion in volume during the first day of trading, the exchange told Cointelegraph. 

Additionally, exchanges are turning to mergers and acquisitions to hasten growth. 

Coinbase is reportedly in talks to buy crypto derivatives exchange Deribit in a multibillion-dollar bid to expand its footprint in the market segment. 

In March, US crypto exchange Kraken agreed to buy NinjaTrader, a futures exchange, for $1.5 billion.

“The recent wave of tariffs has transformed crypto derivatives exchanges into critical market infrastructure,” Nic Roberts-Huntley, CEO of Web3 developer Blueprint Finance, told Cointelegraph. 

“While traditional markets faltered under tariff pressures, derivatives platforms have inversely flourished, serving both as speculative venues and protective hedging mechanisms in a fragmenting global trade landscape,” Roberts-Huntley said.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

The Alabama Securities Commission, a financial regulator for the US state, dropped its lawsuit against crypto exchange Coinbase, which accused the company of violating securities laws by offering staking services to clients.

The regulator cited the ongoing work between the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the crypto industry to develop clear crypto regulations as the primary reason for dropping the litigation, according to the April 23 legal filing shared by Coinbase’s chief legal officer, Paul Grewal.

The filing read:

“The SEC has announced the formation of a new task force to, among other things, provide guidance for the promulgation of rules regarding the regulation of cryptocurrency products and services.”

“Due to the foregoing, the Commission believes it would be apt to allow policymakers time to consider regulatory constructs,” the filing continued.

The Alabama Securities Commission filed its lawsuit against Coinbase in June 2023, alongside state regulators from California, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, South Carolina, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The Alabama Securities Commission dismisses its 2023 lawsuit against Coinbase. Source: Paul Grewal

The Commission’s dropped lawsuit reflects the positive regulatory shift toward cryptocurrencies in the United States as reform at the federal level matriculates into state-level regulatory policy.

Related: Oregon targets Coinbase after SEC drops its federal lawsuit

US states drop Coinbase lawsuit but half still holding out

Five of the 10 states that filed the litigation against Coinbase for its staking services have dropped their lawsuits.

On March 13, Vermont’s Department of Financial Regulation became the first of the 10 state regulators to drop the staking lawsuit against Coinbase.

South Carolina’s securities watchdog was the next to drop the 2023 litigation against Coinbase, dismissing the lawsuit on March 28.

Grewal announced that Kentucky’s Department of Financial Institutions followed Vermont and South Carolina’s lead on April 1 by also dismissing its Coinbase lawsuit.

Despite the domino effect of states rescinding litigation against the crypto exchange, the Coinbase chief legal officer said that more work needs to be done.

“Five holdouts are still electing to waste taxpayer resources on lawsuits, and four of those have banned staking with Coinbase, depriving consumers of the right to earn on their platform of choice,” Grewal wrote in an April 23 X post.

Magazine: SEC’s U-turn on crypto leaves key questions unanswered