Bitcoin is decoupling from the US stock market and starting to trade more like precious metals, in another signal of Bitcoin’s growing role as a safe-haven asset against global economic disruption.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is showcasing its growing maturity as a global asset, becoming “less Nasdaq — more gold” over the past two weeks, according to Alex Svanevik, co-founder and CEO of the Nansen crypto intelligence platform.

Bitcoin staged a 12% recovery in the two weeks leading up to April 22, despite ongoing tariff escalation between the world’s largest trading nations. The US increased reciprocal tariffs on China to 125% as of April 9, while China raised import tariffs from 84% to 125% effective April 12.

Source: Alex Svanevik

Bitcoin was “surprisingly resilient” amid the trade war compared to altcoins and indexes like the S&P 500, but remains vulnerable to economic recession concerns, Svanevik told Cointelegraph, adding:

“We expect gold to be more resilient, although gold holdings could be net sold in case investors panic and want to cover margin call. This was seen one to two days at the worst of the trade war earlier this month.”

Still, Bitcoin will continue benefiting from regulatory development and the US Bitcoin Reserve-related news, particularly with more developments on how the “Treasury is looking for ways to swap reserves into BTC,” added Svanevik.

Related: Bitcoin rally above $100K may follow US Treasury buybacks — Arthur Hayes

While the US Bitcoin reserve will initially hold BTC forfeited in government criminal cases, President Donald Trump’s executive order instructed the government to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin.

LATEST: Executive Director of Digital Assets Bo Hines said the US government may buy Bitcoin using tariff revenue. pic.twitter.com/Gfc2HiEJoL

— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) April 15, 2025

The US is looking at “many creative ways” to fund its Bitcoin investments, including from tariff revenue and by reevaluating the Treasury’s gold certificates, creating a paper surplus to fund the BTC reserve without selling gold, Bo Hines of the Presidential Council of Advisers for Digital Assets said in an interview on April 14.

Related: Bitcoin up 33% since 2024 halving as institutions disrupt cycle

US recession odds rise to 60%, says JPMorgan

Despite Bitcoin’s resilience against tariff concerns, a potential US recession may slash investor demand for risk assets.

The probability of a US recession in 2025 has risen from 40% to 60%, according to an April 15 research report from JPMorgan, which wrote: 

“The latest unwinding of the Liberation Day tariffs reduces the shock to the global trading order, but the remaining universal 10% tariff is still a material threat to growth and the 145% tariff on China keeps the probability of a recession at 60%.”Global Recession Outlook. Source: JPMorgan Global Economics

JPMorgan expects the Fed to “start easing in September, with further cuts at every meeting thereafter through January 2026 — reaching a 3% policy rate by June 2026,” added the report. 

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Polygon-based non-fungible tokens (NFTs) took the top spot in digital collectible sales after surging 20% in the last seven days. 

On April 22, NFT data tracker CryptoSlam showed that Polygon NFTs overtook Ethereum, reaching a $22.3 million volume in the past week. This represented 24% of last week’s overall NFT sales volume, which reached $92.9 million. 

The network also had over 39,000 NFT buyers for the week, an 81% increase over the previous week. 

Ethereum remained second in sales, with a $19.2 million NFT sales volume for the week. Mythos Chain followed with $14.3 million, while Bitcoin-based collections ranked fourth with $14.1 million for the week. 

Top blockchains by seven-day NFT sales volume. Source: CryptoSlam

RWA NFT collection drives Polygon surge

The Polygon NFT surge was driven by a single real-world asset (RWA) NFT collection, highlighting that the RWA narrative has reached the NFT space.

RWA tokenization refers to tangible assets minted on the blockchain to increase accessibility and trading opportunities for the assets. Simply put, it’s transforming real-world assets like art, property or even stocks into digital tokens on a blockchain that can be bought, held or traded.

CryptoSlam data shows that increased sales from Courtyard NFTs caused the Polygon NFT surge. The collection reached a sales volume of $20.7 million, eclipsing the performances of other popular NFT projects for the week. 

Courtyard NFT collection tops digital collectible sales volume list. Source: CryptoSlam

Related: Bybit shuts down four more Web3 services after axing NFT marketplace

Courtyard is an RWA marketplace for graded physical card collections. This includes the Pokémon, basketball and baseball cards that are popular among collectors. 

The platform operates by storing and insuring tokenized cards in a vault operated by a security company. This means that NFTs are physically backed. After purchasing NFTs, users can opt to redeem the physical card. When this happens, the NFT is burned and will no longer be traded in the marketplace. 

Onchain RWAs have been a strong narrative in the first quarter of 2025. Data from RWA.xyz shows that tokenized assets have reached $21.2 billion, with total asset holders of more than 97,000. This excludes the value of stablecoins, which is already at $227 billion. 

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A planned settlement between the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission and crypto exchange KuCoin will likely be delayed after a policy shift at the CFTC to deprioritize cases against crypto companies under the Trump administration.

CFTC attorney John Murphy submitted a letter on April 21 to District Judge Valerie Caproni, asking for more time to secure approval for a deal negotiated under the Biden administration, reported Law360.

“It appears unlikely that such authorization will be granted in the near term,” he said, referencing a recent statement by acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham that the agency’s enforcement division was to deprioritize cases against crypto companies.

The CFTC charged KuCoin with “multiple violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations” in March 2024.

According to the Justice Department, which also filed charges against KuCoin and two founders for violating Anti-Money Laundering laws, the exchange received more than $5 billion and sent more than $4 billion in “suspicious and criminal funds.” 

KuCoin, trading under Mek Global Limited, reached a $297 million settlement with the Department of Justice in January and agreed to exit the US market for at least two years. 

In December, the CFTC and KuCoin informed the court that they reached an agreement in principle to settle the case, however terms and details of the proposed deal were not disclosed. 

In March, KuCoin asked the judge for a 14-day stay to address further negotiations in line with President Trump’s executive order curtailing enforcement actions against the digital asset industry. However, this request was denied, with the judge pressing for negotiation status updates. 

No majority at CFTC

When Pham announced in February that the Commission would wind down its practice of regulation by enforcement, she also noted that terminating active cases would be more difficult to deal with.

The CFTC needs a majority to dismiss a case or authorize its settlement, and there is currently no majority, with two members from each party sitting on its governing body.

This could change if the Senate confirms the appointment of Trump nominee Brian Quintenz to lead the financial regulator.

Both parties have requested an additional 60 days or until the Commission provides “definitive direction” on the matter. 

Related: US regulators FDIC and CFTC ease crypto restrictions for banks, derivatives

On April 21, the CFTC’s Divisions of Market Oversight issued a request for comment to better inform them on the potential uses, benefits, and risks of perpetual contracts in derivatives markets.

“Innovation and new technology have created a renaissance in markets that presents new opportunities that are accessible to more people, as well as risks,” said Pham. 

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