Key takeaways:

Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio converges with gold’s, indicating similar risk-adjusted returns, supporting its store-of-value role.

Gold outperformed Bitcoin in Q1 2025 with a 30.33% price gain versus Bitcoin’s 3.84%, driven by economic uncertainty.

Bitcoin ETF inflows are recovering, and analysts predict BTC could reach $110,000–$444,000 in 2025.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is holding above $100,000, leading Fidelity Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer to say the crypto asset could reclaim its position as a leading store-of-value contender. 

Timmer’s recent analysis highlights a convergence in the Sharpe ratios of Bitcoin and gold, suggesting that the two assets are increasingly comparable in risk-adjusted returns. The Sharpe ratio measures the rate of return an investment provides for the risk taken, by comparing its performance to a risk-free benchmark relative to its volatility.

The chart below, tracking weekly data between 2018 and May 2025, shows Bitcoin’s returns (1x) catching up to gold’s (4x), with gold at $22.48 and Bitcoin at $15.95 in relative performance terms. 

Gold vs Bitcoin Sharpe ratio. Source: X.com

From an allocation standpoint, Timmer recommended a 4:1 gold-to-Bitcoin ratio for a store-of-value hedge, highlighting an intriguing observation. Timmer said, 

“I continue to be fascinated by the fact that the most negatively correlated asset to Bitcoin is gold. For two players on the same store-of-value team, it’s not what I would expect to see. Bitcoin’s risk-reward ratio has continued to impress. There is no other asset quite like it!”

While Bitcoin’s SoV credential improves above $100,000, Ecoinometrics, a Bitcoin-focused macroeconomic newsletter, pointed out that it was not smooth sailing in Q1 2025. 

In 2024, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded traded-funds (ETFs) saw a staggering $35 billion net inflows, purchasing 500,000 BTC and driving a 120% return. However, 2025 started on a different note. The first four months saw Bitcoin ETF flows drop to less than a third compared to 2024, while gold ETFs attracted more capital.

The newsletter noted that this shift could be attributed to Q1 uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy, trade policy, and the US economy. Ecoinometrics stated,

“Between two hard assets, gold and Bitcoin, it’s easy to see why capital went to the one seen as a haven.” Bitcoin vs gold ETF netflows comparison. Source: X.com

Gold, with a 30.33% price gain in 2025 compared to Bitcoin’s 3.84%, benefited from its stability during economic unease. Additionally, the analysis added that Bitcoin performed better as a “high-beta growth asset,” thriving in rising liquidity and fiat debasement environments. 

Recent developments signal a shift: US trade policy clarity, a softer Federal Reserve stance, and easing financial conditions have spurred steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

Related: Bitcoin bull flag and standard profit taking hint at eventual rally to new BTC price highs

Bitcoin is on track for new highs in 2025

A higher Sharpe ratio is a positive metric for Bitcoin, significantly increasing the probability of reaching new all-time highs above $110,000 in May. According to Bitcoin Suisse, a crypto custody firm, BTC’s high Sharpe ratio has allowed the asset to thrive in risk-on and risk-off environments since the US presidential election. 

Bitcoin price performance in risk-on, risk-off. Source: Bitcoin Suisse

With more than 88% of its supply in profit, BTC currently behaves as a high-conviction bet, where the likelihood of an “acceleration phase” moving forward. Bitcoin Suisse head of research Dominic Weibei said, 

“In this environment, Bitcoin has emerged as the Swiss army knife asset. Whether equities rally or bonds crumble, BTC trades on its supply-demand fundamentals, delivering a win-win profile that traditional assets simply can’t offer.”

Similarly, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin has a “decent chance” of reaching $250,000 or more in 2025, driven by its interplay with gold, according to a gold-based forecast. The report uses a scenario-based framework rooted in its gold model to project Bitcoin’s potential revaluation as a non-sovereign hard asset. 

If Bitcoin’s network value, measured in gold, follows a power curve, and gold maintains its current value, analysts suggest it could hit $444,000 in 2025. However, a more conservative estimate by Bitcoin analyst Apsk32 points to a “reasonable” target of $220,000 for the year. 

Related: Altcoins are on the verge of ‘most powerful rally’ since 2017 — Analyst

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Circle, the issuer of stablecoin USDC (USDC), is still planning an initial public offering (IPO), but the company is also in informal talks with Ripple and Coinbase about a sale, according to a report from Fortune.

Circle is seeking at least $5 billion, which is its target for the IPO, according to the four banking and private equity sources Fortune cited. Ripple tried to purchase Circle on April 30, but the $4 billion to $5 billion bid was rejected as being too low.

If Ripple or Coinbase were to buy Circle, the details of a purchase would differ. Ripple would pay using cash and XRP (XRP), a cryptocurrency that Ripple created. Coinbase, on the other hand, would use cash and stock.

Coinbase and Circle have a relationship dating to 2018, when they launched the Centre Consortium. That venture was meant to establish standards for fiat-backed stablecoins, including USDC. Coinbase also has an agreement with Circle to put USDC onto its exchange.

Circle filed for an IPO on April 1 with a goal to complete the process by the end of that month. The company backpedaled slightly on April 4, indicating it might delay its IPO due to economic uncertainty.

Related: New bull cycle? Bitcoin’s return to $100K hints at ‘significant price move’

Market conditions for IPOs improve as tariffs wane

In December 2024, Bitwise predicted that 2025 would be the year of the crypto IPO, and that prediction is starting to bear fruit. Aside from Circle, crypto exchanges Gemini and Kraken are mulling IPOs in 2025 or early 2026 as US President Donald Trump has pushed for a more favorable regulatory environment for crypto in the United States.

Those plans were put on hold after the Trump administration enacted wide-ranging tariffs that caused market turmoil. With the tariffs now suspended or reduced, markets have rebounded.

On May 12, Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin (BTC) was 4.8% away from reaching its all-time high of $109,800. Ether (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have also seen big gains in the past month. The stock market has rebounded as well, with the S&P 500 jumping 15.6% in the past month according to Google Finance.

At least one company has benefited from completing its IPO during this period of renewed enthusiasm: eToro, an Israel-based trading company. After an IPO on May 14, its stock price jumped 29%.

Magazine: .X Hall of Flame: Bitcoin will ‘start ripping’ as Trump’s polls improve — Felix Hartmann 

On May 22, US President Donald Trump is expected to host up to 220 people who had purchased the most significant quantities of his memecoin at a private event in Washington, DC.

Though the exact number of attendees was unknown as of May 19, reports and blockchain data have revealed some of the tokenholders who qualified to apply for the May 22 dinner and “VIP tour” and reception, presumed to be in the White House. Bloomberg reported on May 7 that more than half of the 220 wallets were likely controlled by foreign nationals.

Among the memecoin dinner applicants, who likely still face background checks ahead of getting a confirmed appearance before the president, included Synthetix founder Kain Warwick, a consultant named Vincent Deriu, and crypto user Morten Christensen, who reportedly only paid $1,200 for the opportunity.

Others included a World Liberty Financial adviser going by the pseudonym “Ogle,” and a representative from the Singapore-based startup MemeCore. Cointelegraph has also learned that Vincent Liu, chief investment officer of the Taiwan-based company Kronos Research, plans to attend.

Trump’s memecoin, even before the announced dinner and reception, was criticized by many members of Congress.

Some lawmakers said the president was opening the White House up to potential bribes and conflicts of interest by allowing people, perhaps tied to foreign governments, to put money directly into his pockets without transparency.

Interfering with stablecoin, market structure bills

The controversy has spilled over into proposed legislation connected to digital assets, including a bill in the Senate aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for stablecoins and a draft market structure bill in the House of Representatives. Some Democrats said they would not support any legislation until “Trump’s crypto corruption” was addressed.

May 14 BlueSky post on Trump memecoin. Source: Elizabeth Warren

“Democrats are thinking that this is just an official means by which to conduct corruption,” said Rebecca Liao, co-founder and CEO of layer-1 blockchain Saga, in a statement shared with Cointelegraph. “What began as a bipartisan bill with potential widespread support has now transformed into a proxy war between the Democrats and the Trump administration.”

Related: Trump’s crypto ties ‘add a certain level of challenge’ to passing bills — Coinbase exec

Some organizations have planned protests during the memecoin dinner on May 22. The Democratic Party’s arm in Arlington, Virginia, announced its members would gather to oppose those in the White House “cashing in on their public office.” Cointelegraph reached out to the organization for comment but had not received a response at the time of publication.

Buying influence, or just speculating on an emerging market?

The top 220 tokenholders reportedly spent a combined $148 million to have the opportunity to attend the event, which finalized its leaderboard on May 12. However, anyone with a wallet can still buy TRUMP tokens and potentially influence the president’s policies after the dinner is completed. 

“The decision to acquire the [TRUMP] token was not political,” Vincent Liu of Kronos Research, who plans on attending the memecoin dinner, told Cointelegraph. “It was based on identifying early momentum, cultural relevance, and potential market catalysts.”

In April, Freight Technologies said it would invest $20 million in the TRUMP token, suggesting that it could affect the president’s trade policies between the US and Mexico, where the firm conducts some of its business. GD Culture Group announced in May that the memecoin would be included in its plans for a $300-million crypto reserve.

“The issue is the conflict of interest between the Trump family’s crypto investments and the administration’s pivot toward crypto-friendly policies,” said Liao. “The Trump family has very openly invested in crypto and has started their own crypto ventures. This has created a perception problem where policy shifts favoring cryptocurrency could be viewed as self-enrichment rather than in the national interest.”

If the stablecoin bill, the GENIUS Act, is the first test for how Republicans and Democrats will respond to Trump’s potential conflicts of interest in the crypto industry, there is already a stark contrast between the two parties. ​​

House Speaker Mike Johnson largely brushed off concerns about the president and his family’s connections to the industry, saying he was “not an expert in that.” White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly reportedly said there were “no conflicts of interest” because Trump’s children managed his assets through a trust.

Lawmakers are expected to take up a vote on the GENIUS Act in a matter of days, possibly before the memecoin dinner and reception are held. At the time of publication, it was unclear whether Republicans intended to address some of the Democrats’ concerns around Trump and crypto, or move forward with a vote with no significant changes to the bill.

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions